Ocupó el cargo de superintendente de Pensiones sólo cuatro meses, al inicio del segundo gobierno de Bachelet. Fue el período que lo toleró la industria de las AFP, luego que intentara regular efectivamente a sus actores. Hoy, Álvaro Gallegos también es una piedra en el zapato, esta vez para el Banco Central, a quien responsabiliza de la debacle del fondo E de las AFP en entrevista con El Regionalista.
Por Edison Ortiz y Claudio Urtubia
Nadie puede culparlo de ser cuestionador de las AFP sólo por razones ideológicas: desde su puesto como superintendente de AFP y posteriormente ha intentado que el sistema de pensiones responda efectivamente a sus promesas fundacionales, elaborando propuestas y aportando mirada crítica. Sin embargo, en estos días en que nadie duda que el sistema se va a pique, opina que en ese incumplimiento de promesas está, precisamente, la razón del naufragio. Porque las AFP no cumplieron con la tasa de reemplazo, no liberaron al estado del pago de pensiones, ni a los empleadores del pago de cotizaciones; no es un sistema costo-eficiente con comisiones competitivas y generan una rentabilidad sobredimensionada. Y, por último, porque su sello de “hacer las cosas muy bien” terminó por hundirse junto con el derrumbe de los fondos C, D y E.
Después del descalabro en los fondos conservadores y la expectativa de una tasa de inflación cercana al 6%, ¿cómo evalúa la decisión de septiembre del Banco Central de subir la tasa de interés?
Al subir la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM), el Banco Central (BC) está actuando en coherencia con su propio diagnóstico de “economía en peligro de sobrecalentamiento causado por un exceso de demanda”, buscando anticiparse a una eventual pérdida del ancla inflacionaria.
Dos comentarios: me cuesta compartir el juicio de sobrecalentamiento, porque los altos IMACEC responden a la baja base de comparación con el año pasado, cuando la actividad cayó profundamente y el crecimiento mes a mes no se ve tan elevado. Las presiones inflacionarias de demanda obedecen a factores transitorios como retiros, IFE universal y el alza del dólar y factores externos como el alza del petróleo, el precio del transporte y problemas de oferta como los quiebres de inventario, disrupción de cadena logística y aumento de márgenes en los distribuidores. Finalmente, es difícil conciliar una actividad recalentada con el persistente rezago de la recuperación del empleo.
La política abrupta de alza de tasas da lugar, generalmente, a ajustes bruscos que dañan la formación de precios y continuidad en la actividad. Es un efecto lamentable en el desplome de fondos de pensiones más conservadores.
En segundo lugar, la política abrupta de alza de tasas da lugar, generalmente, a ajustes bruscos que dañan la formación de precios y continuidad en la actividad. Es un efecto lamentable en el desplome de fondos de pensiones más conservadores, cuya caída fue agudizada por el alza de TPM y por continuos anuncios del BC diciendo que estas alzas van a continuar. No toda la responsabilidad recae en el BC pero es evidente que no apostó por medidas mitigatorias y preventivas sobre un resultado negativo que iba a perjudicar a una cantidad enorme de pensionados con retiro programado y trabajadores que están cercanos a iniciar su trámite de la pensión.
¿Qué rol ha jugado en esta crisis el Consejo Técnico de Inversiones (CTI)?
El CTI es el órgano a cargo de fijar las reglas para las carteras de los fondos, incluidos en normativa “Régimen de inversiones”. Según la ley, debe “procurar el logro de una adecuada rentabilidad y seguridad”. Evidentemente, desatendió ese rol. Ese organismo nunca ha determinado límites de plazo a las inversiones de renta fija y mantuvo en esos fondos conservadores una alta exposición al riesgo de tasa de interés. Esa omisión tiene directa incidencia en la pérdida de patrimonio de los afiliados.
El Consejo Técnico de Inversiones de las AFP es funcional al sistema para el que está concebido como un esquema que favorece principalmente a las AFP más que al dueño del fondo, al trabajador.
El CTI es funcional al sistema para el que está concebido como un esquema que favorece principalmente a las AFP más que al dueño del fondo, al trabajador. Tiene 5 consejeros titulares: el presidente es designado por la presidencia de la República y el vicepresidente ha sido tradicionalmente postulado por las AFP. El BC también tiene un consejero titular. Los otros dos titulares son académicos propuestos por universidades, uno experto en temas financieros y el otro en macroeconomía. Es un grupo experto, pero ha fallado gravemente a su deber de diligencia, porque no ha sabido anticiparse ni prevenir una situación a la que cualquier administrador de carteras de inversión tiene que estar atento, que son los riesgos de plazo.
La prensa ha puesto atención a su propuesta de crear un fondo F. ¿En qué consiste y en qué se diferenciaría de los demás?
El fondo F es una propuesta que ha estado sobre la mesa desde hace mucho tiempo. Lamentablemente, las autoridades y la industria nunca se han mostrado disponibles para avanzar en esta idea. Existe en Perú como fondo 0, es decir, tenemos esa experiencia de la cual pueden sacarse lecciones. Tendría restricción en los títulos elegibles para esa cartera, de renta fija con límite de plazo residual, de forma que no quede expuesto a riesgos de tasa interés. Podría ser cualquier tipo de instrumento de emisor autorizado con la sola condición de que su duración sea inferior a dos años y no como ahora, que están expuestos a plazos larguísimos. Sería un fondo refugio para trabajadores del sistema prontos a jubilarse: voluntario para quienes estén a cinco años del retiro y obligatorio para quienes estén a un año.
Después de todo lo ocurrido, ¿cree que el sistema de las AFP podrá sobrevivir? ¿Por qué?
Va a depender, sin duda, de la correlación de fuerzas. Las AFP siguen controlando un 70 a 80 % del PIB. Es un enorme poder político. Y son propiedad de compañías de seguro internacionales que van a ejercer su presión para defender el negocio. Ya están reclamando por el anticipo de rentas vitalicias. Esperemos que exista la voluntad de parlamentarios y gobierno para hacer una reforma profunda que reemplace este sistema que ha fallado en todas las variables de evaluación.
¿Cómo podría el país iniciar su tránsito a otro modelo de pensiones? ¿Qué es factible hacer ahora, ya?
Si se da el cambio de signo en el próximo gobierno, el país iniciará ese tránsito. Por hacer ahora, ya, no hay prácticamente nada. Porque para hacer algo se requiere un gobierno que gobierne y este gobierno no lo hace. Por lo tanto, no es posible llegar a acuerdos políticos que sean respetados por las partes. La palabra de este gobierno saliente no tiene la prestancia para apoyar una reforma de pensiones aceptable. De todas maneras, si el ahora ya es marzo, el debate va a ser largo. Dependiendo de la estrategia del próximo gobierno, debe intentar una carta de navegación que permita hacerse cargo de los problemas más urgentes que requieren solución pronta. Entre ellos, avanzar en una pensión básica universal, eliminación de uso tablas de expectativas de vida y mortalidad para cálculo de pensiones individuales y de discriminación basada en género que contienen las tablas; flexibilizar el acceso a ciertos derechos como la pensión anticipada que hoy es inalcanzable para el 99% de afiliados, porque exige tasa de reemplazo que el sistema no entrega.
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