Los comienzos accidentados del gobierno de Gabriel Boric en Chile demuestran la dificultad de gobernar con dos coaliciones distintas, sobre todo si falta confianza entre ambas. Pero nadie dijo que la democracia era fácil. Lo bueno es que Francia, por lo menos por ahora, hizo oído sordo a los clamores xenofóbicos y antidemocráticos de la ultraderecha, y seguirá siendo uno de los protagonistas más importantes del proyecto europeo, que a pesar de todo sigue siendo un ejemplo de éxito socialdemócrata en un mundo dominado por el neoliberalismo norteamericano de un lado y el modelo autoritario de China y Rusia, por el otro.
David Allen Harvey
Cuenta la leyenda que Luis XV, el penúltimo rey de Francia, dijo en su lecho de muerte: “Après moi, le déluge” (después de mí, el diluvio), y así predijo la revolución que traería la muerte de su nieto y sucesor y cambiaría el mundo para siempre. Según muchos analistas políticos, Francia logró evitar otro diluvio con la derrota de la candidata de extrema derecha, Marine Le Pen, en las elecciones presidenciales del domingo pasado. Una victoria de Le Pen, quien había propuesto reexaminar la participación de Francia en la Unión Europea y la OTAN, formar una relación más amistosa con el autócrata ruso Vladimir Putin y expulsar a los inmigrantes de Francia, hubiera sido un verdadero diluvio con consecuencias incalculables para la estabilidad mundial. Afortunadamente, esto no sucedió, y el presidente actual, Emmanuel Macron, fue reelegido con casi un 59% de los votos, pese a su impopularidad personal y el descontento del pueblo francés con su liderazgo y la situación actual del país. Y ahora, ¿qué?
En su discurso triunfal frente a la Torre Eiffel, el domingo por la noche, el mismo Macron reconoció que el mandato del pueblo fue más bien un rechazo a la política extremista de Le Pen que un voto de apoyo de su propia gestión, y prometió trabajar duro para ganar la confianza de sus conciudadanos. Tiene mucho trabajo por delante. Considerado por muchos como “el presidente de los ricos,” Macron es un exbanquero que proviene de una familia adinerada, y ha demostrado su incomodidad cuando tiene que salir a la calle para escuchar las quejas de los ciudadanos comunes. Su política económica, incluyendo cortes en el gasto fiscal, bajas en los impuestos a los ricos y las grandes empresas, y un mercado laboral más flexible (reduciendo el poder de los sindicatos sobre los despidos y las nuevas contrataciones), ha sido exitosa al nivel macroeconómico—la tasa de desempleo de Francia cayó a 7,4%, su nivel más bajo en más de una década, y su economía creció 7% en 2021, el nivel más alto de los últimos cincuenta años—, pero muchos dirían que el “chancho está mal pelado”, dado que la mayoría de las ganancias han ido a los más adinerados. En particular, su propuesta de subir los impuestos sobre los combustibles, motivada por su conciencia ecológica, provocó una fuerte ola de protesta de los Chaquetas Amarillas, sobre todo en zonas rurales que no se benefician de la red de transporte público de Francia, que es uno de los mejores del mundo. Su política intransigente de salud pública ha salvado vidas, sin duda, pero también ha inspirado la ira de sus opositores. La personalidad combativa de Macron agravó la situación—el mandatario declaró públicamente que quería “cagar” (emmerder) a los no vacunados, haciéndoles la vida imposible con reglas sanitarias estrictas para obligarlos a inocularse. Aunque los franceses tienen un nivel de vida, que es la envidia de muchos otros países, esto viene a un costo de impuestos bastante altos, y la inflación que ha golpeado a Francia, como al resto del mundo, ha fomentado el descontento con un mandatario que aparece frío, distante, e indiferente a las inquietudes populares. Los resultados del domingo pasado revelaron una fuerte brecha entre los grandes centros urbanos, que votaron masivamente por Macron, y los habitantes del campo que, en muchas partes del país, apoyaron a Le Pen. A Macron le convendría hablar menos y escuchar más.
En el calendario político de Francia, las elecciones legislativas vienen dos meses después de las presidenciales. Tradicionalmente, el ganador de estas ha pedido al pueblo ratificar su mandato eligiendo una mayoría parlamentaria de su sector para adoptar su agenda política. Esto sucedió en 1981 con el primer mandato de François Mittérrand, permitiéndole adoptar una agenda socialista de alzas de impuestos y expansión de programas sociales. También ocurrió cinco años atrás, cuando el pueblo francés dio una mayoría absoluta a La République en marche, el nuevo partido formado por Macron como alternativa a los bloques tradicionales de socialistas y gaullistas. Pero nadie espera que Macron tenga la misma suerte esta vez. Tanto Marine Le Pen, quien declaró que su 41% de los votos fue una victoria moral (la verdad es que es el sufragio más elevado que ha tenido la extrema derecha en Francia, y es causa de preocupación para el futuro), como el izquierdista Jean-Luc Mélenchon han llamado a sus electores a votar en masa en las elecciones legislativas de junio, llamándolas la “tercera ronda” de las presidenciales. El caso de Mélenchon demuestra las profundas divisiones políticas del país galo: llamó a “no dar ni un voto a la señora Le Pen,” pero no dio su apoyo a Macron, y se especula que más de un tercio de sus votantes se abstuvieron de la segunda vuelta de sufragios. Ahora, Mélenchon ha llamado a la izquierda francesa a votar en masa en los comicios legislativos, con el objetivo de ganar una mayoría parlamentaria y obligar al presidente Macron a nombrarle su primer ministro (Francia tiene un sistema mixto con presidente y primer ministro, y ha tenido varios períodos de “cohabitación” cuando estos dos vienen de sectores políticos opuestos). Veo este resultado como poco probable—si Mélenchon fuera capaz de unir a la izquierda francesa, habría sido él, y no Marine Le Pen, quien hubiese pasado a la segunda vuelta presidencial. Pero sí auguro una remontada de la izquierda en las elecciones legislativas de junio—muchos de los que votaron por Macron, con un poco de asco, querrán un Congreso más progresista para obligarle a virar hacia la izquierda en su segundo mandato presidencial.
Por lo tanto, lo más probable es que Emmanuel Macron se encontrará en un par de meses más en una situación muy parecida a la de Gabriel Boric. Tendrá que gobernar sin una mayoría estable en el Congreso, y se verá obligado a hacer malabares políticos para mantenerse a flote. En política fiscal, Macron se inclina más hacia la derecha neoliberal, y sus aliados naturales en temas económicos son los gaullistas (el movimiento de centroderecha tradicional de Francia, que remonta al general Charles de Gaulle, fundador de la Quinta República en 1958). Pero en temas valóricos y sociales, notablemente tratándose de la protección del medioambiente y los derechos de la mujer, dos asuntos que enfatizó en su discurso de victoria, Macron se acerca más a la izquierda socialdemócrata. ¿Cómo, entonces, formará su nuevo gobierno? Es poco probable que su partido gane nuevamente una mayoría, y ya ha descartado la posibilidad de aliarse con la extrema derecha de Le Pen, la cual tampoco quiere colaborar con él. Quedan entonces tres alternativas: una coalición de centroderecha con los gaullistas (tal vez la opción más cómoda y coherente para Macron, si estos dos partidos reciben suficientes votos); una coalición multipartidaria de centroizquierda, con o sin Mélenchon en el gobierno (que sería la opción lógica si la izquierda triunfa en las elecciones legislativas y así impide que el presidente pueda formar una mayoría sin ellos); o una coalición de centro incluyendo los gaullistas y parte de la izquierda más moderada. Todas las opciones tienen ventajas y desventajas, y va depender de las preferencias tanto del presidente reelecto como de las del pueblo votante.
403 comentarios en “Après le déluge: las elecciones de Francia, sus consecuencias para Europa y el mundo”
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