Los comienzos accidentados del gobierno de Gabriel Boric en Chile demuestran la dificultad de gobernar con dos coaliciones distintas, sobre todo si falta confianza entre ambas. Pero nadie dijo que la democracia era fácil. Lo bueno es que Francia, por lo menos por ahora, hizo oído sordo a los clamores xenofóbicos y antidemocráticos de la ultraderecha, y seguirá siendo uno de los protagonistas más importantes del proyecto europeo, que a pesar de todo sigue siendo un ejemplo de éxito socialdemócrata en un mundo dominado por el neoliberalismo norteamericano de un lado y el modelo autoritario de China y Rusia, por el otro.
David Allen Harvey
Cuenta la leyenda que Luis XV, el penúltimo rey de Francia, dijo en su lecho de muerte: “Après moi, le déluge” (después de mí, el diluvio), y así predijo la revolución que traería la muerte de su nieto y sucesor y cambiaría el mundo para siempre. Según muchos analistas políticos, Francia logró evitar otro diluvio con la derrota de la candidata de extrema derecha, Marine Le Pen, en las elecciones presidenciales del domingo pasado. Una victoria de Le Pen, quien había propuesto reexaminar la participación de Francia en la Unión Europea y la OTAN, formar una relación más amistosa con el autócrata ruso Vladimir Putin y expulsar a los inmigrantes de Francia, hubiera sido un verdadero diluvio con consecuencias incalculables para la estabilidad mundial. Afortunadamente, esto no sucedió, y el presidente actual, Emmanuel Macron, fue reelegido con casi un 59% de los votos, pese a su impopularidad personal y el descontento del pueblo francés con su liderazgo y la situación actual del país. Y ahora, ¿qué?
En su discurso triunfal frente a la Torre Eiffel, el domingo por la noche, el mismo Macron reconoció que el mandato del pueblo fue más bien un rechazo a la política extremista de Le Pen que un voto de apoyo de su propia gestión, y prometió trabajar duro para ganar la confianza de sus conciudadanos. Tiene mucho trabajo por delante. Considerado por muchos como “el presidente de los ricos,” Macron es un exbanquero que proviene de una familia adinerada, y ha demostrado su incomodidad cuando tiene que salir a la calle para escuchar las quejas de los ciudadanos comunes. Su política económica, incluyendo cortes en el gasto fiscal, bajas en los impuestos a los ricos y las grandes empresas, y un mercado laboral más flexible (reduciendo el poder de los sindicatos sobre los despidos y las nuevas contrataciones), ha sido exitosa al nivel macroeconómico—la tasa de desempleo de Francia cayó a 7,4%, su nivel más bajo en más de una década, y su economía creció 7% en 2021, el nivel más alto de los últimos cincuenta años—, pero muchos dirían que el “chancho está mal pelado”, dado que la mayoría de las ganancias han ido a los más adinerados. En particular, su propuesta de subir los impuestos sobre los combustibles, motivada por su conciencia ecológica, provocó una fuerte ola de protesta de los Chaquetas Amarillas, sobre todo en zonas rurales que no se benefician de la red de transporte público de Francia, que es uno de los mejores del mundo. Su política intransigente de salud pública ha salvado vidas, sin duda, pero también ha inspirado la ira de sus opositores. La personalidad combativa de Macron agravó la situación—el mandatario declaró públicamente que quería “cagar” (emmerder) a los no vacunados, haciéndoles la vida imposible con reglas sanitarias estrictas para obligarlos a inocularse. Aunque los franceses tienen un nivel de vida, que es la envidia de muchos otros países, esto viene a un costo de impuestos bastante altos, y la inflación que ha golpeado a Francia, como al resto del mundo, ha fomentado el descontento con un mandatario que aparece frío, distante, e indiferente a las inquietudes populares. Los resultados del domingo pasado revelaron una fuerte brecha entre los grandes centros urbanos, que votaron masivamente por Macron, y los habitantes del campo que, en muchas partes del país, apoyaron a Le Pen. A Macron le convendría hablar menos y escuchar más.
En el calendario político de Francia, las elecciones legislativas vienen dos meses después de las presidenciales. Tradicionalmente, el ganador de estas ha pedido al pueblo ratificar su mandato eligiendo una mayoría parlamentaria de su sector para adoptar su agenda política. Esto sucedió en 1981 con el primer mandato de François Mittérrand, permitiéndole adoptar una agenda socialista de alzas de impuestos y expansión de programas sociales. También ocurrió cinco años atrás, cuando el pueblo francés dio una mayoría absoluta a La République en marche, el nuevo partido formado por Macron como alternativa a los bloques tradicionales de socialistas y gaullistas. Pero nadie espera que Macron tenga la misma suerte esta vez. Tanto Marine Le Pen, quien declaró que su 41% de los votos fue una victoria moral (la verdad es que es el sufragio más elevado que ha tenido la extrema derecha en Francia, y es causa de preocupación para el futuro), como el izquierdista Jean-Luc Mélenchon han llamado a sus electores a votar en masa en las elecciones legislativas de junio, llamándolas la “tercera ronda” de las presidenciales. El caso de Mélenchon demuestra las profundas divisiones políticas del país galo: llamó a “no dar ni un voto a la señora Le Pen,” pero no dio su apoyo a Macron, y se especula que más de un tercio de sus votantes se abstuvieron de la segunda vuelta de sufragios. Ahora, Mélenchon ha llamado a la izquierda francesa a votar en masa en los comicios legislativos, con el objetivo de ganar una mayoría parlamentaria y obligar al presidente Macron a nombrarle su primer ministro (Francia tiene un sistema mixto con presidente y primer ministro, y ha tenido varios períodos de “cohabitación” cuando estos dos vienen de sectores políticos opuestos). Veo este resultado como poco probable—si Mélenchon fuera capaz de unir a la izquierda francesa, habría sido él, y no Marine Le Pen, quien hubiese pasado a la segunda vuelta presidencial. Pero sí auguro una remontada de la izquierda en las elecciones legislativas de junio—muchos de los que votaron por Macron, con un poco de asco, querrán un Congreso más progresista para obligarle a virar hacia la izquierda en su segundo mandato presidencial.
Por lo tanto, lo más probable es que Emmanuel Macron se encontrará en un par de meses más en una situación muy parecida a la de Gabriel Boric. Tendrá que gobernar sin una mayoría estable en el Congreso, y se verá obligado a hacer malabares políticos para mantenerse a flote. En política fiscal, Macron se inclina más hacia la derecha neoliberal, y sus aliados naturales en temas económicos son los gaullistas (el movimiento de centroderecha tradicional de Francia, que remonta al general Charles de Gaulle, fundador de la Quinta República en 1958). Pero en temas valóricos y sociales, notablemente tratándose de la protección del medioambiente y los derechos de la mujer, dos asuntos que enfatizó en su discurso de victoria, Macron se acerca más a la izquierda socialdemócrata. ¿Cómo, entonces, formará su nuevo gobierno? Es poco probable que su partido gane nuevamente una mayoría, y ya ha descartado la posibilidad de aliarse con la extrema derecha de Le Pen, la cual tampoco quiere colaborar con él. Quedan entonces tres alternativas: una coalición de centroderecha con los gaullistas (tal vez la opción más cómoda y coherente para Macron, si estos dos partidos reciben suficientes votos); una coalición multipartidaria de centroizquierda, con o sin Mélenchon en el gobierno (que sería la opción lógica si la izquierda triunfa en las elecciones legislativas y así impide que el presidente pueda formar una mayoría sin ellos); o una coalición de centro incluyendo los gaullistas y parte de la izquierda más moderada. Todas las opciones tienen ventajas y desventajas, y va depender de las preferencias tanto del presidente reelecto como de las del pueblo votante.
102 comentarios en “Après le déluge: las elecciones de Francia, sus consecuencias para Europa y el mundo”
Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll give you a link on your web blog. Thanks for sharing.
Nice post. I study something more difficult on completely different blogs everyday. It would always be stimulating to learn content from other writers and follow somewhat something from their store. I’d favor to use some with the content material on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll offer you a link on your internet blog. Thanks for sharing.
you have a great blog here! would you like to make some invite posts on my blog?
Very interesting subject , thanks for posting.
I love assembling useful info, this post has got me even more info! .
Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back frequently!
F*ckin’ awesome things here. I’m very glad to see your post. Thanks a lot and i am looking forward to contact you. Will you please drop me a e-mail?
You made some good points there. I looked on the internet for the subject and found most persons will go along with with your blog.
Greetings! Very helpful advice within this article!
It is the little changes which will make the biggest changes.
Many thanks for sharing!
I have read a few just right stuff here. Certainly value bookmarking for revisiting.
I wonder how so much attempt you place to make this sort
of great informative site.
Thanks in support of sharing such a fastidious thinking, post
is pleasant, thats why i have read it entirely
If some one needs expert view on the topic of blogging and site-building after that i propose him/her to pay a quick visit this weblog, Keep up the pleasant work.
It’s fantastic that you are getting thoughts from this piece of writing as well as from our
dialogue made here.
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say
that I’ve truly enjoyed browsing your blog posts.
After all I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again soon!
Wow! After all I got a blog from where I be able to actually obtain useful facts concerning my study and knowledge.
I have been browsing online more than 2 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours.
It is pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the web will be much more useful than ever
before.
Hello! I’ve been reading your website for a long time now and finally got the courage to
go ahead and give you a shout out from New Caney Texas! Just wanted to mention keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it.
Look advanced to far added agreeable from you! By the way, how can we communicate?
This paragraph offers clear idea designed for the new
people of blogging, that really how to do blogging and site-building.
Hello, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar
one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam feedback?
If so how do you reduce it, any plugin or anything you can advise?
I get so much lately it’s driving me insane so any assistance is very much appreciated.
Hey there this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or
if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I
wanted to get advice from someone with experience.
Any help would be enormously appreciated!
After checking out a few of the articles on your blog, I
seriously appreciate your way of writing a blog. I book-marked it to my bookmark website list and will
be checking back in the near future. Take a look at my website as well and let me know
how you feel.
That is a really good tip particularly to those new to the blogosphere.
Simple but very accurate info… Many thanks for sharing this one.
A must read article!
I have read several excellent stuff here. Certainly worth bookmarking for revisiting.
I surprise how much effort you set to create this kind of fantastic informative
website.
This is very interesting, You’re an excessively skilled blogger.
I have joined your rss feed and stay up for in quest of extra of your wonderful
post. Also, I have shared your website in my social networks
I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you create this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you?
Plz reply as I’m looking to design my own blog and would
like to find out where u got this from. cheers
And in general, we assume that material rewards are a quite poor explanation for functioning.
Herre is myy site; 주점알바
Appreciate the recommendation. Let me try it out.
When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each
time a comment is added I get several e-mails with the
same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from
that service? Thanks a lot!
So, evn though the lottery acquire is a digital transaction,
there’s eventually paper involved.
Also visit my blog post … 파워볼게임
Operating whilst studying is incredibly common among international students.
my website – 밤알바
However, you can use our no deposit bonus tto play video slots, keno, board games, and scratch cards.
my blog post; 토토사이트
OLG woll hold a Player’s monies that are deposited with OLG for purposes of funding the notional balance of a Player Account in a bank
account or escrow account as trustee for the Player (not as banker or debtor).
my web blog 동행복권 파워볼
80% of ladies amongst yrars old have a job, Employment and Training Centre chairman Clydee Caruana stated.
My web-site – 란제리 알바
From right here, Joker can view his campaiogn by Statijon Square and start the Sun Confidant.
Feel free to visit my web-site :: 밤알바
Also critical to note that aany recurring payments will not qualify you for bonuses in which a deposit is
required.
Here is my blog 파워볼중계
Get a «5X», «10X», «20X» or «50X» sybol and win 5, 10,
20 orr 50 Times the PRIZE shown for that symbol.
Take a look at my webpage; 동행복권 스피드키노
However, they cawnnot have a complete-time and aspect-time
job at the identical time.
My webpage … 여성알바
“The organization has been sending me texts repedatedly asking when I would join,” he told the Post.
Also visit my page – 텐카페 알바
In total it has polled 25 million personnel in 189
distinct countries.
My web site – 여성알바
The motivrs that some workers take aspect-time hours show that the “voluntary”
label is a bit of a misnomer.
Also visit my web blog; 유흥알바
People who can’t afford tto bdibe officers just send their children wherever thedy are assigned.
My web blog … 유흥알바
A hanbd is valued by tthe rightmost digit of the summ oof the cards just about every round has exactly three differing
outcomes.
Also visit my bllog post 온라인카지노
Hi there to all, how is all, I think every one is getting more from this web page, and your views are good
in favor of new viewers.
The Gaming and Lottery Office off the Mexican Secretariat for House Affairs is responsible
for the licensing annd regulation of gambling in Mexico.
Feel free to surf to my blog; 메이저토토사이트
For these purposes, a “year of service” is a 12-month period in which an employee
completes the nuumber of hours of service specified in the strategy.
Look into my webpage; 언니 알바
If supplied, your loan agreement will contain specific
terms and conditions.
Also visit my page; 정부지원대출
As extennded as you make your needed minimum month-to-month payments just about every month,
the loan is paid off inn a year.
My site; 무직자대출
Even exactly where it is allowed, it’s virtually unheard inn the United States, except
for hiring models orr actors.
Also visit myy web blog :: 마사지 알바
But wih per diem and leadership pay, legislator
compensation averages roughly $70,000, greater than Indiana’s
median complete-time revenue of $62,000.
myweb site :: site
With a fragile crdit score you will want to be careful cuecking gives.
Review my web blog – 대출뱅크
Essentially, you have to deposit and play by way of 10x your deposit quantity just before you can withdraw any funds.
Feel free to surf to my web blog … click here
All players are capable to set deposit limits and
impose cool-off periods.
Look at my web page; website
Gambling requires risk and you have to not gamble with
funds you can’t afford to shed.
My site :: americansecuritypaper.com
But bettors know there’s just as a lot income to bbe made in other sports likke Tennis,
Golf, UFC, and NASCAR.
Take a look at my blog post … get more info
Lots of of the casino/hotel complexes neverthwless carry the Tropicana
name, as does the on line offering.
Feel free tto visit my web page … 바카라
Standard lenders, such as banks, can take days oor weeks to
procedure a loan.
Also visit mmy site 정부지원대출
If the loan iis nott repaid on time, the pawn shop owner can sell the item to
recover the unpaid amount.
My web page :: 소액대출
Once again, we hope this is 1 aspect that is improved upokn iin the future.
Also visit my page – 바카라사이트
What a stuff of un-ambiguity and preserveness of precious knowledge on the topic of unpredicted emotions.
However, the licensed status of the platform signifies it has stringent Know-Your-Customer (KYC)rules.
Also visit my webpage: web site
Please note the display name will appear on screen when you participate.
Feel free to visit my page – PBG파워볼
Then, play until yyou meet the wageering specifications, and
you can do anything you like with the winnings.
Also visit my blog post :: eilly.us
There will also be a smaller smoking location neawr the entrance of the back gates.
Here is my site; FELX비트볼
If you are searching for a Vegas style experience, our Emerald
Queen Casino Tacoma locationis for you.
my web site; 온라인카지노
Puerto Rico established the 1st official territory-wide lottery in 1934.
My web blog :: EOS파워볼
Online payday loans are unsecured loans that don’t demand a pledge.
Also visit myy page – 소액 대출
I read this post completely regarding the difference of latest and previous technologies,
it’s remarkable article.
If you do not want to use them, you’ll nonetheless come across offers to pad your
bankroll.
Here iis my blog yrmzc.win-blog.com
Even so, studies show that mothers still take on tthe brunt of youngster care.
Feel free to visit my page … 마사지알바
At present,you can play aat social gaming
and sweepstakes casinoss on some on the web betting web pages.
Here is my blog :: 온라인카지노
When the progressive jackpot is won, the jackpot for the subsequent play
is reset to a predetermined worth, then resumes
growing with each and every play.
My webpage website
An Unsecured Signature Loan (see facts on this web page) can be applied ffor that purpose.
Here is my web-site; 소액대출
However, some legit employers do have you spend his out-of-pocket expense.
Also visit my website … 여성밤알바
Most installment loans for negative credit charge aan origtination charge to cover the costs off processing
aand issuing a loan.
Also visit my web page: 대환대출
In tthe case of Hyundai, the huge Korean carmaker, the business
also runs a hospital in Seoul.
my web blog; 밤알바 직업소개소
If you pick to deposit the limit of $1,000 5 occasions
in a row, you’ll walk away with $12,250 in bonus funds.
myhomepage 온라인바카라
You can acquire unlimited job invites perr month from prospective customers.
Feel free to surf to my site … web site
Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the pictures on this blog loading?
I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog.
Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
I believe people who wrote this needs true loving because it’s a blessing.
So let me give back and show true love on change your
life and if you want to really findout? I will share info about how
to make passive income Don’t forget.. I am always
here for yall. Bless yall!
Hi there, I enjoy reading through your post.
I wanted to write a little comment to support you.
Great post! We are linking to this particularly great content on our website.
Keep up the good writing.
This is exactly where some bookkmakers excel as other folks fail,
proper at the initial hurdle.
my homepage … website
Hello There. I discovered your blog the use of msn. That is a really neatly
written article. I will make sure to bookmark it
and come back to learn extra of your useful info. Thanks for the
post. I will certainly comeback.
I have been surfing online more than 3 hours lately, but I by no means discovered any fascinating article like
yours. It’s beautiful value sufficient for me.
Personally, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content as you probably did, the net might be a
lot more helpful than ever before.
Every single casino can apply for an additional skin if it partners with a professional sports group.
Here is my webpage 해외토토사이트
Thanks to the presence of main sports teams like thee Detroit Pistons, Detroit Lions, and Detroit Tigers, Michigan has the formula for a steady foundation.
Also visit my webpage – get more info
FanDuel Sportsbook is one of Crossing Broad’s favored sportsbooks.
Look into my ste … more info
Annuijty contracts transfer all the daner of a
down marketplace to the insurance company.
My web blog: 코인파워볼
Yes, you can make deposits and withdrawals at Ignition with cryptocurrency.
Here iis my websife :: click here
7Bit Casino is an fantastic alernative for players who likke too play the BTC games.
Loook at my webpage; 카지노사이트
Can I show my graceful appreciation and finally give back really good
stuff and if you want to have a checkout Let me tell
you a brief about how to change your life I am always here for yall you know that right?
WOW Vegas is in our top rated spot for the finest on the internet casino in the US this month.
Also visit my blog post :: 온라인바카라
The Account ought to alsso bee iin your own name and not in the name
oof any other person (living or deceased), a beneficiary, trust, custodian, or entity.
Also visit my web page: 우리카지노
Some bus riders opted out of the casino altogether, setting up dueling card games outdoors on wooden planks that attracted a crowd of onlookers.
My web-site :: http://www.motelsuisse.com
I am in fact thankful to the holder of this site who has shared this enormous article at
here.
Let me give you a thumbs up man. Can I give true love to amazing values and if you want to have a checkout and also share valuable info about
how to find good hackers for good price yalla lready know follow me
my fellow commenters!.
I like this blog so much, saved to fav. «Nostalgia isn’t what it used to be.» by Peter De Vries.
It’s really a nice and useful piece of information. I am satisfied that you simply shared this
useful info with us. Please keep us up to date like
this. Thanks for sharing.
Wow, wonderful blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your site is great, let alone the content!
We’re a gaggle of volunteers and opening a brand new scheme in our community.
Your website offered us with helpful information to work on. You’ve performed a formidable task and our entire group
can be grateful to you.
I’d like to find out more? I’d care to find
out more details.