Una semana en el barro y la revalorización de Goebbels
Por Rolando Cárdenas
Una tercera semana de campaña signada por las entrevistas de don Francisco, en un lado más humano, la participación (o no) en el programa Bad Boys de Parisi y el debate de la Archi, más los despliegues territoriales que muestran dos opciones electorales diferentes.
Hasta antes del debate en Archi, Kast estuvo en una buena semana con buen rating en medios (Mega, C13 y Bad Boys). Boric declinó participar del programa de Parisi, aduciendo razones de principio, que más bien dan cuenta del temor de una encerrona (reconocido por Izkia Siches), y que culminó con la acusación de Kast de abuso en el debate de Archi, que se tomó la agenda y apagó cualquier otro mensaje que intenten los candidatos.
La reacción de la campaña de Boric fue muy adecuada, haciendo un muy buen control de daños, lo que sumado a la declaración de la persona afectada (que establece que no es abuso ni acoso), termina políticamente con el tema, que ya no servirá como instrumento de campaña. Existe el daño, pero pareciera que acotado.
En una estrategia de campaña de todo retador que ve su derrota en el horizonte, Kast opta por una campaña sucia y llena de mentiras; como indicaba Goebbels, miente, miente que algo queda.
Esto culmina el día lunes con el debate de Anatel, que se esperaba pudiera ser significativo para cambiar aquello que las encuestas (todas) indican que es un triunfo seguro de Boric. En el debate se vio a un Boric seguro, bastante al ataque, marcando cada mentira de Kast, y con un momento estelar cuando muestra el test de drogas que se había realizado en UC Christus (todo muy bien calculado), lo que deja a su contendiente bien descolocado.
Kast decepciona, y para el retador es muy complejo ya que no le ayuda a revertir la tendencia.
Dos comentarios de la campaña global. En primer lugar, reiterar la gran incorporación de Izkia Siches al comando de campaña de Boric, en la práctica es una campaña con dos candidatos. Por ejemplo, hoy Siches recorre Araucanía y Los Ríos, reductos de Kast, y Boric, Antofagasta, reducto de Parisi. Esto le permite ampliar su base de apoyo electoral, buscando nuevos electores, lo que se complementa muy bien con el mensaje de los puerta a puerta, ligando Boric al apruebo. Kast optó por mejorar su desempeño en los nichos de electores donde le fue bien, buscando crecer en nuevos votantes de esas mismas características y lugares. Son opciones distintas que veremos cómo resultan.
En segundo lugar, Boric entiende que debe dar señales de moderación, pragmatismo y gobernabilidad, y ahí se generan importantes novedades: en lo simbólico, las señales de Ricardo Lagos y Michelle Bachelet, en segundo lugar, figuras moderadas para la primera línea de gobierno, y en tercer lugar pragmatismo en el programa. En esto último, la respuesta respecto de la eliminación de las AFP en el debate es una clara señal.
Es imposible no dar cuenta además de la revalorización de los 30 años de la Concertación por ambos candidatos; está por verse si será solo una estrategia electoral o entienden que tendrán que navegar en aguas turbulentas, para lo que requieren de la tan vilipendiada política, el arte de lo posible.
Polarización o apoliticismo
Esta es una discusión de la que tendremos respuesta el domingo 19 con los resultados finales. Si estamos en una sociedad polarizada, debiera aumentar el número de electores y eso debiera reflejarse en un triunfo más holgado de Boric, al contrario, si lo que tenemos es una sociedad despolitizada, tendremos un menor número de votantes con lo que aumentarán las posibilidades de Kast.
Es una pregunta no menor, cuya respuesta debiera incidir en el comportamiento de los actores políticos.
Sistema de partidos y el participar o no de un futuro gobierno
Uno de los fenómenos del cambio epocal que vivimos es la pérdida de sentido de los partidos políticos: su rol de intermediador entre la sociedad y el estado ya no es necesario. De hecho, independientemente del gobierno y la correlación de fuerzas políticas, desde hace varios años la agenda la maneja la gente, la energía se fue del sistema y hoy no se ven maneras claras de canalizarla.
Sobre el rol que tienen hoy los partidos políticos, es algo que la ley les otorga con la designación de candidatos. El problema es que esto ha significado que el control de los partidos lo ejercen los parlamentarios, que necesitan de esa estructura para poder ser nominados como candidatos para siguientes períodos. Otro factor que se agregó a la distorsión del sistema es que los gobiernos entregaron el control del aparato del estado en regiones a los distintos caciques locales, creando un círculo vicioso, en que terminamos con partidos como fuente de trabajo en el Estado, prebenda entregada graciosamente por el cacique de turno. El resultado: partidos de funcionarios, desconectados de la realidad social.
¿Cambiará esta dinámica en un futuro gobierno de Apruebo Dignidad? Pregunta abierta.
Corolario
Todo pareciera indicar que los dados están lanzados, y salvo un hecho como el que afectó a Karina Oliva, el triunfo de Boric es inevitable.
Sin embargo, lo esencial son los desafíos del nuevo gobierno, puesto que ya no sólo Chile vivirá una transición como en la década del 90, hoy es el mundo el que debe iniciar una transición hacia un nuevo modelo político, económico y social, que reemplace el que hoy vivimos y que nos tiene sumidos en una crisis de sobrevivencia de la humanidad.
Esto requerirá pensar fuera del sistema, eclecticismo en el diseño de políticas públicas, trabajo con la sociedad en su conjunto, entre muchas otras tareas. Hoy es el tiempo de una nueva generación que deberá lidiar con visiones y certezas contrapuestas que todo lo ven en blanco y negro, crecimiento económico versus defensa de los recursos naturales, commodities versus industrialización, mercado versus estado, etc.
Dura tarea que además debe lograrse con amplios consensos, ya que hay un equilibrio en las fuerzas con representación en el parlamento. Un elemento que puede facilitar este proceso es la Convención Constitucional, que obviamente tiene un importante grado de complicidad con Boric.
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