En el origen del cambio climático están las enseñanzas de Keynes, que instauró el trabajo inútil para generar el pleno empleo. Si realmente se quiere luchar contra el cambio climático, se debe prohibir la obsolescencia programada, y se debe reducir la semana de trabajo a 20 horas.
Por Julián Alcayaga Olivares, economista y abogado
Los graves incendios de este verano en el hemisferio norte, Grecia, Turquía y California, e inundaciones nunca vistas en Alemania o China, han generado numerosos reportajes que ven en ello un efecto del cambio climático. El tema se ha puesto aún más de actualidad, en razón de la ECOP26 (Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre cambio climático) que comenzará el 31 de octubre en Escocia. A ello se agrega que en el mes de agosto se puso término a la conferencia del IPCC (Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático), que ha dado origen a comentarios y especulaciones sobre la situación.
Según el IPCC, no hay casualidad: “Muchos de los cambios observados en el clima no tienen precedentes en miles, sino en cientos de miles de años, y algunos de los cambios … no se podrán revertir hasta dentro de varios siglos o milenios”. Y la causa sólo es atribuible a las acciones humanas.
Según estos científicos, si queremos solo “estabilizar” el clima, será necesario lograr rápida y sostenidamente cero emisiones netas de CO2, y las principales medidas que proponen es cambiar la matriz energética desde el carbón y el petróleo a las energías renovables eólica, solar, hidrógeno verde.
El IPCC fue creado en 1988 por Naciones Unidas y la Organización Meteorológica, y su primer informe fue publicado en 1990. Sin embargo, a pesar de sus aportes científicos y técnicos, en estos últimos 31 años, el deterioro del clima no ha hecho más que avanzar. Ello es un claro indicio de que tanto la causa como la solución al cambio climático no pasan por una solución técnica, sino por una decisión política. Y es el poder económico el que, por lo general, domina o tiene una preponderante influencia en los gobiernos, es decir en la política.
En consecuencia, la solución de la crisis climática es de una complejidad muy superior a la simple solución técnica o científica, de cambiar la matriz energética del carbón y el petróleo a energías renovables.
La causa principal del cambio climático es el despilfarro en el exceso de producción industrial y agrícola y, por ende, de recursos naturales, que es absolutamente innecesario y evitable. Su inicio se produce cuando las grandes industrias comenzaron a implementar masivamente la obsolescencia programada, es decir, disminuir deliberadamente la duración o vida útil de los productos que actualmente se fabrican.
La raíz de la crisis: el despilfarro
Naciones Unidas no ataca a la causa que genera el importante incremento en el uso de energía de los GEI (principalmente carbón y petróleo), es decir la industrialización, agricultura industrializada y la deforestación, sino que se ataca a sus efectos, los gases de efecto invernadero, cambiando solamente la matriz energética, de fósiles a renovables. Nada se dice respecto que la causa principal del cambio climático es el despilfarro en el exceso de producción industrial y agrícola y, por ende, de recursos naturales, que es absolutamente innecesario y evitable.
Sin embargo, a pesar de que reconoce que en el origen del efecto invernadero están los 150 años de industrialización, deforestación y agricultura a gran escala, Naciones Unidas propone en sus soluciones la financiación a los países pobres del cambio de la matriz energética de fósiles a renovables, como si los países pobres fueran los grandes emisores de GEI, y la agricultura transgénica y otras industrias y negocios.
Si bien la ONU apunta a una causa real y efectiva del problema, se queda corta. El despilfarro, la real causa, encuentra su base teórica en “La teoría General” de J.M. Keynes de 1935, sobre todo después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, cuando las grandes industrias comenzaron a implementar masivamente la obsolescencia programada, es decir, disminuir deliberadamente la duración o vida útil de los productos que actualmente se fabrican.
Entre 1958 y 1959, un estudio realizado por la revista para ingenieros y ejecutivos Design News dio pie a la pregunta de la editorial “¿Es deseable limitar la duración de un producto?»
El Sr. Safford, el autor, comenzó con un ejemplo: «Es interesante saber de uno de los altos ejecutivos de una gran fábrica de radios portátiles, que sus artículos no deben durar más de 3 años». ¿Es inmoral fabricar deliberadamente un artículo defectuoso? Primero, si las radios portátiles debieran durar diez años, el mercado se saturaría mucho antes de que las nuevas compras permitieran continuar con la fabricación; en segundo lugar, al usuario se le negaría el beneficio del progreso… La limitación sistemática de la duración de un artículo puede convertirse en un factor tan eficaz en la reactivación de la economía estadounidense como la venta a crédito …”[1].
La reducción deliberada de la vida útil de los productos industriales es algo que ni siquiera necesita ser probado «científicamente», ya que todos los habitantes de este planeta ya estamos conscientes que esto es así, porque nos encontramos con ello en nuestra vida cotidiana. Por ejemplo, un automóvil o un refrigerador fabricado en los años 30 o 40 del siglo pasado, que duraban entre 30 y 40 años, en la actualidad duran máximo 10 años.
Gastos inútiles para reactivar la economía
Las estadísticas del INSEE (Instituto de Estadísticas de Francia) señalan que la vida útil de los automóviles pasó de 14 años en 1962, a 12 en 1967 y solamente 10 años en 1975. Ella no debería ser superior a 8 años en 1986.[2]
¿Por qué los productos industriales de hace 60 años o más, duraban el doble, el triple o más que los que se fabrican en los últimos 50 o 60 años? La razón se encuentra en lo que decía la revista americana “Design News” en 1959, y el ingeniero también norteamericano Sr. Safford: las empresas obligan a los ingenieros a diseñar productos que duren muy poco tiempo, en relación a lo que podrían durar, o le cambian o agregan un nuevo elemento para hacerlo parecer diferente o más moderno. Todo lo cual se justificaba para mantener la reactivación económica y el empleo. La obsolescencia programada es lo que está en el origen del cambio climático, y muy poco se puede lograr cambiando simplemente las fuentes de la energía, de las fósiles a las renovables.
¿Cómo llegamos a esto de producir por producir para mantener la economía y el empleo? Todo viene de John Maynard Keynes, que en el siglo pasado salvó al capitalismo del avance de las ideas socialistas que pujaban por destruir el capitalismo, cuando a partir de 1929, se produjo la más grave crisis económica del sistema de economía de mercado. Keynes desarrolló la siguiente teoría:
“Los gastos “ruinosos” (wasteful) de préstamos pueden, no obstante, enriquecer al fin y al cabo a la comunidad. La construcción de pirámides, los terremotos y hasta las guerras pueden servir para aumentar la riqueza… La desocupación podría desaparecer, y teniendo en cuenta sus repercusiones, el ingreso real de la comunidad y su riqueza en capital probablemente rebasarían el nivel actual. Claro está que sería más sensato construir casas o algo semejante …”
Guerra, construir pirámides, lo importante era generar trabajo, aunque fuera completamente inútil, con tal que se reactive la economía y desaparezca el desempleo. Esta política funcionó a las mil maravillas sobre todo después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, época de un enorme crecimiento económico en que el desempleo desapareció. El trabajo inútil consistía en acortar deliberadamente la vida útil de toda la producción industrial, incluida las viviendas, que ya no duran cientos de años, como en siglos anteriores, sino solo algunas decenas de años, y así destruimos edificios enteros para volver a construirlos.
De todo lo anteriormente señalado, tendríamos que concluir que en el origen del cambio climático están las enseñanzas de Keynes, que instauró el trabajo inútil para generar el pleno empleo. En ello se equivocó Keynes, porque en vez de propiciar trabajo inútil, se habría logrado el mismo objetivo de pleno empleo, si hubiera postulado que se redujera sensiblemente la jornada de trabajo, a un tercio o la mitad de lo que era en ese tiempo, cuando la semana de trabajo sobrepasaba largamente las 48 horas.
Si realmente se quiere luchar contra el cambio climático, se debe prohibir la obsolescencia programada, y se debe reducir la semana de trabajo a 20 horas. Solución por cierto muy compleja, pero no imposible.
La columna completa de Julián Alcayaga puede encontrarse en este link:
https://elregionalista.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Julian-Alcayaga-Cambio-climatico-extenso.docx
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