Las sombras que proyecta la posible guerra en Ucrania sobre este rincón del mundo, el trapaso en marcha entre gobierno entrante y saliente, la ola amarilla que cuestiona la Convención son algunos de los hitos de esta semana que instalan matices en las postrimerías de las vacaciones.
Por Rolando Cárdenas
Y el Zar sigue reagrupando su Imperio
En el plano internacional, vivimos momentos complejos. La posible invasión rusa a Ucrania tiene y tendrá consecuencias para nuestro país y el resto del mundo: de partida, sufren las bolsas, seguirá subiendo el petróleo y la logística del comercio internacional continuará con problemas.
La inflación se mantendrá como el problema central para una economía nacional que, con los efectos de la pandemia, tiene pocas posibilidades de política contra cíclica por parte del gobierno de turno.
¿Se podría dar un escenario de guerra? A esta pregunta central, la respuesta es que, lamentablemente, es una posibilidad cierta, ya que para Putin anexar a Ucrania implica tener presencia en Europa, no encerrarse en Asia y, de esa manera, ser un jugador global. Como dicen algunos, Rusia sin Ucrania es un gran país, pero con Ucrania es un Imperio.
Por otra parte, el gobierno de Estados Unidos tiene hoy un débil liderazgo con Joe Biden y, en una crisis interna, nada mejor que generar conflictos externos. De hecho, Biden ha anunciado junto a la Unión Europea aislar a Rusia del sistema financiero mundial y amenaza con nuevas sanciones.
Vienen tiempos complejos, puesto que quien debía mediar, China, apoyó decididamente a Rusia, en una jugada hecha pensando en sus propios conflictos limítrofes.
El desfonde moral de nuestras instituciones uniformadas
En medio de una agenda copada por el cambio de gobierno, la Convención Constitucional y la crisis migratoria, la detención y posterior denegación de libertad al ex comandante en jefe del Ejército, Ricardo Izurieta ha tenido una baja repercusión en los medios.
No es un hecho aislado: hay cuatro ex comandantes en jefe procesados por malversación de caudales públicos.
Junto al fraude de Carabineros, que tiene ribetes dignos de una serie de Netflix, son las más cuantiosas defraudaciones que se conocen. Sin embargo, estos manejos irregulares o derechamente delictivos del erario público se arrastran de hace muchos años. Podemos recordar, a modo de ejemplo, que un comandante en jefe de la Fach aprovechaba los vuelos institucionales para traer objetos personales desde el extranjero, los famosos muebles de ratán.
Es cierto que el manejo de los enormes recursos procedentes del 10% de ventas del cobre de Codelco sin ningún control, así como los cuantiosos gastos reservados son un caldo de cultivo para la corrupción. Sin embargo, lo más grave es que se ha ido perdiendo la solidez moral de las instituciones.
Un gobierno que sale y otro que entra
En estos días, hemos tenido novedades en ambos frentes, en la Moneda grande y en la Moneda chica. Más allá de las muy republicanas y cordiales reuniones para la entrega de información entre las/os ministras/os entrantes y salientes, el gobierno de Piñera sigue tomando medidas que afectan presupuestariamente al nuevo gobierno. Es el caso de la extensión del IFE laboral, lo que significó que el futuro ministro de Hacienda, Mario Marcel, reclamara públicamente que a lo menos el nuevo gobierno debiese ser informado.
El gobierno de Boric ya tuvo la primera baja con la renuncia del subsecretario de Obras Públicas, Alfredo Gutiérrez, independiente apoyado por el FREVS, que no sólo enfrentaba una querella por parte de una empresa contratista, sino también la disconformidad por su nombramiento que los sindicatos del MOP le hicieron saber al presidente electo. Todavía hay otros dos subsecretarios cuestionados, Redes Asistenciales y Defensa, sobre quienes no hay claridad acerca de su situación.
Hay atraso por parte del futuro gobierno en un conjunto de nombramientos, sobre todo las estructuras regionales, lo que motivó la solicitud del gobernador de Valparaíso para que se nombre lo antes posible al delegado regional (ex intendente regional).
En la crónica de estos días, lejos lo más grave ha sido el asesinato de dos guardias de predios forestales en la comuna de Carahue. Respecto del móvil de quienes perpetraron el delito, radio Biobío plantea dos hipótesis más probables: una es que los guardias hayan sido asesinados por grupos vinculados al robo de madera y la segunda, es que pueden haber sido confundidos con Carabineros por la ropa que utilizaban. En una acción que describe a los hechores, los asesinos se llevaron las memorias de las cámaras de seguridad de la camioneta en que se desplazaban las víctimas, por lo que claramente conocían los procedimientos de las empresas de seguridad.
Una u otra posibilidad demuestran una vez más la grave crisis de seguridad que enfrenta el país, particularmente en la llamada Macrozona Sur, sobre la cual no se ve el camino de salida.
Un fantasma recorre Chile, el fantasma del amarillismo
La Convención entró en época de definiciones y ya se han aprobado los primeros artículos que se propondrán a la ciudadanía en el plebiscito de salida.
Es cierto que ha habido propuestas quizás demasiado destempladas, y es absolutamente válido el que distintos actores opinen sobre aquellos artículos propuestos para la nueva constitución que han sido aprobados por las comisiones. Sin embargo, es demasiado temprano como para que ya haya personas que han aparecido en redes sociales, manifestando su apoyo al apruebo en el plebiscito de salida y otras que han llamado al rechazo.
Objetivamente, en este momento hay un gran despliegue en la prensa de personas y grupos que manifiestan su desacuerdo con lo realizado hasta este momento por la Convención. Criticas muy atendibles en algunos casos y que ojalá sean escuchadas para mejorar lo hasta ahora propuesto.
Quienes más prensa han tenido es el grupo Amarillos por Chile que lidera Cristian Warnken, que ha centrado su crítica en un supuesto veto a la derecha por parte de un sector mayoritario de la Convención que, por tanto, estaría escribiendo una constitución partisana, justamente lo que Boric indicó como un gran error.
Estos grupos cometen dos errores que pueden favorecer la opción del apruebo en el plebiscito de salida. Por una parte, que esto sea visto como la elección entre la constitución de Pinochet y la de la Convención, o la opción de las élites contra la opción de la gente común.
El problema de las identidades políticas tan bien representadas en la Convención es que se construyen desde la oposición al otro: veganos versus consumidores de alimentos animales, ciclistas versus automovilistas, izquierda versus derecha, jóvenes versus viejos, feministas versus machistas, etc. En ese espacio democrático, elegido por tod@s l@s chilen@s, se trata de buscar acuerdos en los que prime el interés de tod@s por sobre la expectativa específica de un grupo.
A la primera idea ya comentada, que no debemos apresurarnos en el juicio sino esperar el debate de la Convención y su propuesta final, sumamos una segunda: ante un pasado que nos divide, sólo el futuro puede permitirnos construir una casa común. Y, a diferencia de lo que ocurre en otros lugares del mundo, frente a los grandes problemas de la sociedad actual, en Chile tenemos importantes coincidencias. Entre otras, en el país nadie niega la crisis climática ni nadie desconoce las desigualdades que vive la sociedad, entre otras.
Por todo lo anterior, en tiempos convulsos, en que no hay verdades reveladas, el diálogo entre quienes piensan distinto es esencial.
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