El intelectual brasileño Alberto Aggio estará de paso por Chile esta semana, viene a preparar un libro que se editará el próximo año sobre los 50 años del golpe de Estado y, también, para observar el proceso constituyente chileno, que es seguido con mucha atención desde el país vecino. Alberto vendrá a Rancagua, el próximo miércoles 6 de julio a las 18:30 en la sede de ANEF regional (Germán Riesco 348, al costado de la exgobernación), para dictar una charla sobre el Brasil de Bolsonaro, en el contexto del primer aniversario de El Regionalista. A continuación, la conversación que sostuvo con nosotros.
Edison Ortiz
Alberto, ¿cómo se explica el fenómeno Bolsonaro desde la historia brasileña?
Se explica de muchas maneras. Desde el largo plazo, Bolsonaro viene de una facción de extrema derecha que fue derrotada políticamente en el proceso de apertura. En la disputa interna, esta facción fue aplastada en los 80, cuando incluso llegaron a hacer acciones de tipo terrorista. Luego, fue aislado al interior del propio ejército, donde no era un personaje querido. Cuando mantuvo, públicamente, un discurso de resguardo de algunos fueros, que habían adquirido los policías militares – el equivalente a Carabineros en Chile – sin ser parte de esa elite y luego, ganó un escaño como diputado y se hizo conocido públicamente. Vino la crisis de nuestro sistema político, que es el momento cuando los militares vuelven a alzarse y a sacar la voz. En el Partido de los Trabajadores (PT) de Lula, el fenómeno Bolsonaro no fue bien comprendido y, tras el impeachment a Dilma, ese grupo militar salió con mucha fuerza y ahí apareció Bolsonaro, con mucho oportunismo, hasta transformarse en presidente.
¿Cómo ha sido el gobierno de Bolsonaro para Brasil?
En sus primeros años fue bastante confuso hasta que, en 2019-2020, encuentra su propia ruta, aislando a los actores más radicales de su primer gabinete, y vuelve a aliarse con sectores políticos más tradicionales de derecha. Se abrazó con los mismos políticos que había criticado; en el sentido contrario a su primer periodo de gobierno, cuando estuvo aliado con el ala más extremista.
En tu opinión, ¿el PT tiene algún grado de responsabilidad en la ascensión de Jair Bolsonaro?
Por supuesto, el PT ha sido responsable también. No de su figura, pero sí del contexto que permitió su irrupción. Lula y el PT fueron, al final, una versión muy reducida de un gobierno de izquierdas, ni siquiera fueron reformistas; menos socialdemócratas como sí sucedió en Chile con la Concertación, que dejó, por lo menos, una cierta institucionalidad democrática.
El PT, al final, fue muy corporativista, girando mucho alrededor de la figura de Lula, que siguió haciendo alianzas con sectores de la política tradicional. A ese proceso le faltó apoyo de masas, eso fue lo que alguna vez discutimos los dos con nuestro querido amigo Joan Alcázar, en la Universidad de verano de Gandia.
En el escenario político actual de Brasil, ¿cuáles son las posibilidades de Lula?
Son abiertas y grandes para ganar la elección presidencial. Recién ayer, salió una encuesta que le otorga la posibilidad de un triunfo, incluso en primera vuelta, de los votos válidamente emitidos. Él alcanzaría un 53%, en tanto Bolsonaro solo un 34%. Estamos a meses de la elección, pero creo que el escenario no se va a modificar mucho.
¿Cómo sería un eventual nuevo gobierno de Lula?
Lula no va a tener tiempo para reformas, tendrá que dedicar mucho tiempo a restituir la institucionalidad democrática que fue destruida por Bolsonaro. Tendrá que reunificar el campo democrático, hecho añicos por el actual mandatario, y para eso no solo contará con la socialdemocracia de Cardoso, sino incluso con sectores democráticos de derecha.
Además, luego del aislamiento en que lo dejó Bolsonaro, tendrá que reestructurar una nueva inserción de Brasil en el escenario mundial pospandemia; no con una mirada tercermundista, sino como la potencia que es. Hoy existe una tensión entre los dos Brasil – el rico y el pobre – y Lula tendrá que tender puentes para que dialoguen ambos mundos: el Brasil potencia económica y el de las favelas y el atraso campesino.
Una última pregunta, ¿cómo se observa el proceso chileno desde el país más grande de América Latina?
Fíjate que con mucho interés. El proceso chileno es seguido en Brasil con muchas expectativas. Está en los grandes medios nacionales, está en la televisión, en redes sociales y en las universidades como tema. Hay muchas expectativas sobre el gobierno de Boric para América Latina. Brasil siempre ha tenido una muy buena relación histórica con Chile. En ese sentido, es muy importante que la administración Boric – resultado directo del estallido social – pueda encontrar un equilibrio político institucional para Chile, que consolide su gobierno en paralelo al trabajo que ha realizado la Convención Constitucional.
Por amistad y aprecio a vuestro pueblo y su historia tengo muchos amigos en Chile con los cuales converso a menudo. Nadie hoy tiene una gran expectativa y así lo señalan las encuestas, y ellas evidencian que hay mucha preocupación. Esperamos que les vaya bien.
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