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  • 25 de septiembre de 2022
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Después del parlamento de profesores

Un bloque diverso de centroderecha, desde el ala “colorina” de la DC hasta el ala más liberal de RN, pasando por Evópoli, tendrá la clave que el gobierno de Boric necesitará para alcanzar un acuerdo transversal que podrá juntar una mayoría en el Congreso. En tanto que el proceso determina el resultado, la nueva Constitución probablemente no será tan woke como la propuesta rechazada en el plebiscito, pero si, por fin, Chile logra terminar con la Constitución del 80, será un paso histórico hacia un futuro mejor.

David Allen Harvey

“La fortuna”, dijo Napoleón, “es como una mujer; si no la conquistas hoy, no la busques mañana”. Si dejamos de lado el machismo extremo del emperador francés, reconoceremos que quiso decir algo importante sobre la necesidad de aprovechar las instancias que se presentan en el momento justo, antes de que se marchiten. La Biblia nos dice algo bien parecido, declarando en el libro de Eclesiásticos que: “cada cosa tiene su temporada, y cada propósito su tiempo bajo el Cielo”. Los eventos históricos avanzan inexorablemente hacia el futuro, y no hay vuelta atrás para quien pierde su turno sobre el escenario.

En enero de este año, escribí mi primera contribución para el diario El Regionalista, “El parlamento de profesores”, para dar una advertencia sobre un proceso constituyente que ya estaba tambaleando en aquella fecha. Desde mi punto de vista profesional, de profesor de historia europea, señalé algunos paralelos con procesos constituyentes fallidos del viejo continente, como la asamblea constituyente de la Francia revolucionaria de 1789 y la de Alemania, durante la revolución de 1848. Escribí entonces que, aunque los procesos constituyentes son bien complejos y no se pueden realizar de manera apresurada, la ventana del cambio no se mantendría abierta indefinidamente, y que no había que dejar pasar una oportunidad única que tal vez no volvería. Indiqué un paralelo preocupante entre la Convención Constitucional de Chile con la Asamblea de Frankfurt de 1848, satirizada por el poeta Georg Herwegh como “el ‘parla, parla, parlamento’, donde los discursos no tienen fin”.

Quisiera mucho haberme equivocado sobre la Convención Constitucional. Tal como la asamblea alemana del siglo antepasado, perdieron mucho tiempo en debates interminables sobre asuntos secundarios y al final perdieron su norte. Con una mayoría de izquierda sin precedentes en el país, quisieron legislar sobre todos los temas de la contingencia (aborto, medio ambiente, derechos animales, etc.) y dejar todo resuelto, mientras que su tarea principal era definir las reglas de la ruta, los principios según los cuales Chile sería gobernado al futuro. Tenían la ilusión de que el pueblo estaba con ellos, y el plebiscito del 4 de septiembre les cayó como un balde de agua fría. Se impuso al final la lógica de tres tercios: en Chile, ni la izquierda ni la derecha son mayoría, y ninguno de los dos puede gobernar sin el centro.

¿Y ahora, qué? Cuenta la historia que el fracaso de la asamblea del Paulskirche dejó camino libre al canciller de hierro prusiano, Otto von Bismarck, de imponer un estado autoritario y militarista sobre Alemania por la fuerza de las armas. Como Chile ya pasó por una dictadura sangrienta que casi nadie (con excepción de José Antonio Kast y sus seguidores más militantes) quiere repetir, me atrevo a decir que este camino está definitivamente cerrado. Pero el error de cálculo de la Convención tendrá su precio. Ahora es el Congreso el escenario de las negociaciones claves entre el gobierno y la oposición para definir el proceso constitucional, y en esta asamblea, la izquierda no tiene mayoría. El proceso solo podrá avanzar en base a un acuerdo mayoritario, lo cual implica un camino bastante más centrista que lo que hubiera ocurrido si la Convención hubiera logrado convencer a la mayoría de los votantes chilenos y, por lo tanto, una nueva Constitución con menos cambios al sistema. Este es el precio de las ilusiones y de los errores no forzados.

Celebró la derecha el 5 de septiembre, mientras que los partidarios del Apruebo quedamos con un sabor amargo en la boca. Sin embargo, sería un error de parte de la derecha si interpretara el resultado del plebiscito como un mandato para seguir con la Constitución de la dictadura pinochetista, porque la victoria del Rechazo (que sorprendió tanto a ellos mismos como a sus adversarios) se debe a la negativa del centro (organizado como Amarillos por Chile) a seguir el camino trazado por los constituyentes izquierdistas. Si suponemos que los republicanos, y tal vez parte de la UDI, deciden obstaculizar el proceso, un bloque diverso de centroderecha, desde el ala “colorina” de la DC hasta el ala más liberal de RN, pasando por Evópoli, tendrá la clave que el gobierno de Boric necesitará para alcanzar un acuerdo transversal que podrá juntar una mayoría en el Congreso. En tanto que el proceso determina el resultado, la nueva Constitución probablemente no será tan woke como la propuesta rechazada en el plebiscito, pero si, por fin, Chile logra terminar con la Constitución del 80, será un paso histórico hacia un futuro mejor.

Para cerrar, quiero postular que el referente decimonónico apropiado para el Chile de hoy no es Alemania, sino Francia. Después del “año terrible” de 1870-71, que comenzó con la derrota del imperio de Napoleón III por el ejército prusiano y terminó con la guerra fratricida de la Comuna de Paris, una nueva república se alzó sobre las cenizas. Su primer ministro, el exmonarquista Adolphe Thiers, un converso tardío a la democracia, declaró que: “la república es el régimen que nos divide menos”, pero agregó: “la república será conservadora, o ella no será”.  Su rival y sucesor, el exrevolucionario León Gambetta, moderó sus ambiciones de cambio, afirmando que “la política es el arte de lo posible”. Aunque se odiaron mutuamente hasta sus respectivas muertes, estos dos estadistas lograron poner fin a un siglo de conflicto civil en Francia y trazar los cimientos de un nuevo estado que vería nacer el esplendor cultural de la Belle Epoque. Si las fuerzas políticas chilenas logran un acuerdo parecido, también podrán inaugurar una bella época nueva para sus conciudadanos.

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