Días agitados

La proximidad del plebiscito lleva a una necesaria reflexión sobre los escenarios para la noche del 17. Un triunfo estrecho del a favor le concederá a Kast la manija de las negociaciones en la derecha, pese al dañino descuelgue de Rojo Edwards; si el triunfo es amplio, con mejor razón. En el oficialismo, un triunfo estrecho del en contra confirmará la voluntad de unión en las próximas elecciones ante la amenaza ultra, mientras que un en contra holgado puede ser el mejor escenario para que cada cual reivindique un futuro esplendoroso en solitario.

Por Rolando Cárdenas.

Los ricos también lloran

Si en el tráfago de la campaña plebiscitaria es aplicable lo de “esto no prendió, cabros”, excepto entre quienes están directamente involucrados, tampoco arrebató focos la decisión de Rojo Edwards de abandonar republicanos y montar tienda aparte, autoproclamándose el legítimo libertario chileno, lo que provocara además conflicto con el otro autoproclamado Milei chileno, Axel Kaiser.

Esto puede ser considerado una noticia de tono menor, pero es un golpe muy certero en dos direcciones, por una parte, al liderazgo de Kast, poniéndolo en cuestión y además un golpe fuerte a la campaña del a favor.

Edwards pretende ser el líder de la derecha sin complejos, algo que Kast supuestamente habría traicionado y también capitalizar el triunfo del en contra desde la derecha. Y en este esfuerzo tiene apoyo parlamentario que no sólo va a dañar a Kast sino que la negociación para las próximas elecciones. Porque la derecha de Chile Vamos entraba a dialogar menoscabada ante republicanos y esta última colectividad hoy queda en una posición diametralmente opuesta y ya no estarán en posición de exigir mucho, lo que es un daño mayor ya que republicanos no tiene presencia a nivel de alcaldes ni de gobernadores y pareciera que no la podrá tener en el futuro cercano.

La campaña para el plebiscito tiene una paradoja, ha sido mejor desarrollada y es siempre más fácil construir contenidos para una opción afirmativa como el a favor, sin embargo, las encuestas nos han demostrado que la opción en contra se impondrá el día 17. En esto, no debemos olvidar que la ciudadanía nunca ha estado en fase constituyente sino destituyente. Por tanto, en un escenario cuesta arriba, la acción de Rojo Edwards es un disparo bajo la línea de flotación no solo de Kast y sus aspiraciones presidenciales sino de la campaña del a favor.

La caída de un tótem de la política

Cuando se inició el llamado caso fundaciones, dijimos que este affaire acompañaría al gobierno por largo tiempo, y que sus esquirlas traerían consecuencias insospechadas. Ya este caso se llevó al exministro de Desarrollo Social, Giorgio Jackson, figura clave del FA.

Hoy el ministro de la Vivienda, Carlos Montes, pareciera estar viviendo los últimos días en la cartera, que siempre consideró el mejor espacio para aportar toda su experiencia profesional y política. El informe de la comisión investigadora de la Cámara de Diputados, la posible acusación constitucional en su contra y varios errores no forzados han sellado la suerte de Montes.

El convocar grupos de respaldo y salir megáfono en mano, recordando la performance del presidente Boric, que ya había sido mal evaluada, fue una muy mala decisión, quien se la recomendó no era precisamente el mejor de los asesores comunicacionales.

Además, ya el cerrado respaldo que tenía de las filas del Socialismo Democrático ha empezado a mostrar fisuras, no hay en todo el arco político quien dude de la honestidad del ministro o de su capacidad política, pero en esta coyuntura solo está causando daño a un gobierno que no tiene la capacidad de resistir más golpes.

Probablemente no se le solicitará la renuncia previa al plebiscito, pero es carta fija para el cambio de gabinete posterior a esa fecha.

El día después

Aun cuando el plebiscito del 17 de diciembre no tenga gran importancia para las personas, generará impacto en el mundo político, produciendo un reordenamiento de las filas oficialistas y opositoras.

Por de pronto el plebiscito representa la gran derrota del mundo político, independientemente de la opción que triunfe, y quizás no debemos olvidar a los culpables de la gran farra del primer proceso constituyente. Pero como dice el refrán, el hombre es el único animal que tropieza con la misma piedra, y la derecha repitió exactamente el mismo libreto de la izquierda en el proceso anterior y por tanto presumiblemente obtendrá los mismos resultados.

Ahora, lo entretenido será el reordenamiento post plebiscito, y este estará determinado por la diferencia entre una opción y otra, no será lo mismo un 59/41 que un 51/49.

De partida el gobierno deberá realizar cambio de gabinete, adaptándose a la nueva realidad político electoral. Si ganara el a favor debería cerrar la puerta por fuera. Si el en contra se impone por estrecho margen, deberá concentrarse en una administración de poco impacto político y un triunfo amplio del en contra dará oxigeno para avanzar en materias relevantes como seguridad y desarrollo económico y con algo de capacidad política, dar pasos en las reformas de pensiones y salud.

El oficialismo ha declarado su disposición a enfrentar de manera conjunta la elección de alcaldes y gobernadores, algo que un triunfo estrecho del en contra facilitará enormemente por la necesidad de sobrevivir políticamente. Ahora, si el triunfo es amplio, la sensación de volver a tener piso político hará tambalear los acuerdos por la izquierda.

A contrario sensu la oposición vive su propia procesión: de ganar el a favor, Kast pondrá las condiciones, inclusive si el triunfo es estrecho tendrá parte de la manija para construir ese acuerdo electoral, aun cuando la maniobra de Rojo Edwards ha limitado su campo de acción. Ahora, si el en contra tiene gran ventaja, al igual que en la vereda del frente, las fuerzas centrípetas harán su tarea, tornando muy difíciles los acuerdos electorales.

Hay que monitorear el fantasmal centro político, algo que todos claman en las elecciones pero que hoy está vacío, y si habrá fuerzas políticas para tomar ese espacio. No debemos olvidar que la coalición que logre posicionar su imagen en ese espacio político puede apuntar a gobernar por un tiempo mayor. Veremos cómo se mueven los actores en el tiempo que viene, que no es otro que el de los días venideros.

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