“El éxito consiste en poder ir de fracaso en fracaso
sin perder entusiasmo”.
Winston Churchill
Por Rolando Cárdenas
Escenarios probables
Las elecciones del consejo constitucional se han transformado en una incógnita difícil de resolver, y en ello inciden varios elementos. En primer lugar, el voto obligatorio, que incorpora una enorme masa de votantes que llevan años alejados de la política y cuyo eventual comportamiento electoral, por tanto, no se ha estudiado suficientemente. Hay algunos estudios que apuntan a que es un electorado de corte más conservador e individualista que mira la política como algo ajeno y que no interfiere en su vida cotidiana. En segundo lugar, la desconfianza hacía la política y sus instituciones, fenómeno no solo nacional, que está minando fuertemente la convicción democrática de las naciones. En tercer lugar, el desacople de la política y las preocupaciones ciudadanas, que de hecho ha transformado esta elección en una suerte de campaña presidencial o parlamentaria, cuando hay plena conciencia que una nueva constitución no va a solucionar mágicamente los problemas que viven las personas.
Por tanto, las encuestas que se realizan son capaces de avizorar tendencias, pero no predecir los resultados con precisión; algo de eso pasó el 4S: todos vaticinaron el triunfo del rechazo, pero salvo la encuesta de la Cosa Nostra, se equivocaron en las cifras finales.
Pero veamos que nos indican los estudios respecto de las elecciones del domingo. En términos globales todo apunta a un triunfo fuerte de la oposición, como indicábamos en la columna de la semana pasada probablemente se repitan los guarismos del 4S, es decir 62% oposición, 38% oficialismo. Para el oficialismo su meta es lograr el poder de veto, es decir alcanza la cifra de a lo menos 21 consejeros. Se prevé que la oposición, incluyendo el PDG, pueda superar los 30 consejeros.
En las contiendas al interior de las listas, que tendrá no pocos efectos hacia adelante, se espera que los republicanos de Kast se transformen en la principal fuerza de la oposición y, en el caso del oficialismo, se espera un buen resultado electoral del PC, es decir las fuerzas extremas del arco serán quienes celebren la noche del domingo 7 de mayo.
En nuestra región, las encuestas dan como ganadora a la lista de Chile Vamos, en segundo lugar a PC-FA y PS; en tercer lugar al Partido Republicano, en cuarto al Partido de la Gente y en quinto a la lista del PPD-DC y PR.
En este escenario serían electos dos consejeros de la oposición y un consejero oficialista. Nombres probables: Juan Sutil de Chile Vamos, Sebastián Figueroa de Republicanos y habría una contienda bastante cerrada entre Littin del PS y la candidata Raisa Martínez del PC. Esta previsión se ajusta a lo que se espera sean los resultados generales de esta elección.
La Cosa Nostra acaba de entregar su último estudio en privado que permite explicar el actual escenario político, pero hoy nuestra mirada está en los resultados electorales del domingo 7 y sus consecuencias. Respecto de la intención de voto por lista, los resultados que se proyectan son los siguientes:
Lista A, Partido de la Gente: 8%
Lista B, PPD-DC-PR: 12%
Lista C, Partido Republicano: 27%
Lista D, PC-Frente Amplio-PS-PL: 23%
Lista E, UDI-RN-Evopoli: 20%
No votaré: 10%
Los desafíos del oficialismo
En esta nueva derrota que afectará al oficialismo como indicábamos antes algunos celebrarán y otros sufrirán, y habrá también quienes, a pesar de los malos resultados, se alegrarán al ver los resultados de quienes padecieron las mayores pérdidas.
Ya decíamos que el PC celebrará, mientras que entre los que tendrán malos resultados estarán el PS y, por supuesto, la lista del PPD-DC-PR, que profundizará su piso electoral. A estos últimos partidos solo los salvaría de la debacle la obtención de buenos resultados en número de consejeros, a partir de las figuras senior que llevaron de candidatos.
Si este escenario se produce, la presión que tendrá el gobierno para hacer rodar la cabeza de Carolina Tohá será muy fuerte, y en esto no le sirve un enroque corto nombrando en ese cargo a Elizalde o al actual subsecretario Monsalve, ya que también son parte del socialismo democrático, cuyo partido eje, el PS, tendrá magros resultados. Será él tiempo de Jeannette o Camila Antonia, el tiempo lo dirá.
¿Tendrá el gobierno la capacidad de resistir estos embates y mantener el timón por el mar de la moderación y los acuerdos, o se encaminará hacía una política testimonial sin resultados pero que le permita culpar a los de la vereda del frente por no cumplir su programa?
El PS deberá resolver si se mantiene en su nuevo pacto o retorna al pacto de los partidos del socialismo democrático. No será fácil si lo que está en juego es la presencia en el estado.
Por su parte el PPD, la DC y el PR deberán decidir si persisten como pequeños partidos en declive final o, como indicó la timonel del PPD, esta alianza es de largo plazo y buscarán conformar una fuerza de centroizquierda moderada y liberal, apuntando entonces a la fusión de estos conglomerados.
El PC y el Frente Amplio deberán ser capaces de entender que aun cuando el centro esté huérfano de representación, ahí se concentra el sentido común ciudadano y, por tanto, debieran seguir en la línea de lograr las reformas que el país necesita de manera consensuada con la oposición, porque finalmente esta será la forma de medir el resultado de este gobierno, con avances concretos, aunque sean modestos. No será fácil con un PC que ya no es una estructura monolítica sin disidencia interna; sólo por citar algunos, Jadue y Gutiérrez son una muestra de ello.
Los desafíos de la oposición
Como administrar el éxito sin emborracharse es la tarea de la oposición, Debieran recordar lo que hizo el oficialismo en la convención constitucional y hacer lo contrario para tener una mejor performance, ya que no deben olvidar que las encuestas nos muestran un grupo no menor que ya está optando por votar rechazo en el plebiscito de salida, lo que siempre será una tentación de los perdedores si los ganadores arrasan, nuevamente el ejemplo de la convención.
Si actúa coordinada y abre espacios de acuerdo con los grupos moderados del consejo, la oposición puede lograr un resultado adecuado y legitimarse para los nuevos desafíos electorales.
En términos de los intereses partidarios, la derecha liberal debe definir su espacio y quizás los partidos de Chile Vamos avanzar a procesos de fusión para contrarrestar el influjo republicano que puede por terminar de vaciar a la UDI.
El partido republicano también enfrenta el escenario de dividirse en dos entre quienes quieran imponer sus ideas y quienes estén dispuestos a construir grandes acuerdos. A tener en cuenta lo que acontece con el único representante de los republicanos en el comité de expertos, Carlos Frontaura, quien ha resultado ser un hábil negociador que es reconocido por todos.
El rol del PDG
El PDG ha sufrido un duro golpe que puede tener consecuencias electorales, el que su candidata más fuerte en Arica y Parinacota haya sido condenada por narcotráfico y aparte de la pena de cárcel fue sancionada con la prohibición perpetua de asumir cargos de elección popular, y sin embargo, está en la papeleta.
Se suponía que este partido pudiera andar cerca del 10% de los votos y elegir entre 3 y 5 consejeros. Una bancada que entregaría la mayoría a la derecha para actuar sin contrapesos o, al revés, permitir al oficialismo tener poder de veto.
Conociendo a su líder, negociará caso a caso y puede ser la bisagra que determine hacia donde se encamine la nueva constitución. Una no menor y atractiva posibilidad para Parisi que lo transformaría en el objeto del deseo para todo el arco político.
Las cuentas por cobrar
Vienen tiempos difíciles para las fuerzas políticas y se cobrarán muchas cuentas pendientes después de estas elecciones, no sólo peligran los cargos de primera línea del gobierno, sino que la mayoría de las directivas de los partidos políticos.
¿Natalia Piergentili podrá mantenerse a la cabeza del PPD? ¿Javier Macaya resistirá el embate de los grupos integristas de la UDI? ¿Gloria Hutt en Evópoli podrá mantener el control de la dirección? Y así podríamos seguir con todos los partidos, salvo los extremos que salvarán en esta debacle, PC y republicanos.
Y si de cuentas se trata, no se olvidarán los culpables de la gran farra del progresismo, los convencionales, que permitieron pasar a este escenario en que de tenerlo todo, terminaron tratando de salvar la estantería.
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