El tema de las pensiones es muy complicado y esencial de resolver, pero sin soluciones fáciles. Y como lo que pasa hoy en Francia podría pasar mañana en Chile, es de esperar que Macron y sus críticos logren un acuerdo que permita un retiro digno a los pensionados franceses sin romper el chanchito fiscal.
David Allen Harvey
En las últimas dos semanas, millones de ciudadanos franceses han ocupado las calles y plazas de Paris y de las otras grandes ciudades de Francia, y los grandes sindicatos del país galo han llamado a un paro general. La causa de la disputa es la propuesta de reforma de pensiones del presidente Emmanuel Macron, que propone subir la edad de jubilación desde 62 años (la más baja entre los países desarrollados) hasta los 64. El gobierno argumenta que el cambio es necesario para fortalecer el fondo previsional, dado los cambios en la pirámide demográfica de Francia (con un 27% de la población mayores de 60, y solo 23% menores de 20), y mantener la competitividad de Francia frente al resto de la Unión Europea. Pero la oposición socialista, los sindicatos, y la mayoría de los ciudadanos comunes no están de acuerdo, e insisten que sería mejor subir los impuestos sobre los ricos y las empresas para recaudar los fondos necesarios para las pensiones.
Hay varios factores que hacen que el movimiento de protesta haya podido tomar las calles y conmocionar al país. El presidente Emmanuel Macron, un tecnócrata de centro-derecha que viene del mundo de las finanzas, ha sido elegido dos veces en parte gracias al apoyo de los votantes de la izquierda, quienes lo consideran el mal menor, comparado con la ultraderecha xenófoba representada por su rival Marine Le Pen. Para muchos de estos votantes, la propuesta de Macron parece una traición. Pero el conflicto también toca muy de cerca la cultura política del país. Desde la Revolución Francesa de 1789, la igualdad y la fraternidad han sido proclamados entre los valores más importantes del republicanismo francés, y el État Providence (estado providencial) garantiza a sus ciudadanos una serie de derechos que son la envidia del resto del mundo: salas cuna públicas, educación pública gratuita y de calidad, un sistema de salud entre los mejores del mundo, generosas vacaciones pagadas, ayuda maternal y familiar, y pensiones dignas y universales. Todo esto tiene su costo, y los impuestos son altos en Francia comparado a la mayoría de los países del mundo. Pero el estado providencial está en el corazón de la identidad nacional francesa, y los franceses siempre han mirado con horror el capitalismo salvaje que asocian con los Estados Unidos, y temen que incluso reformas menores podrían ser los primeros pasos en un camino hacia el neoliberalismo yanqui. Por esto es que los franceses siempre se movilizan en masa para defender a sus droits acquis (derechos adquiridos).
Es difícil predecir como terminará este capítulo del conflicto. El presidente Macron insiste que las reformas propuestas son necesarias y se niega a dar su brazo a torcer. Pero ya no tiene mayoría en el Congreso, y la oposición, viendo sangre en el agua, quiere aprovechar su debilidad política. El movimiento ciudadano tampoco da señales de debilitarse, y como se vio en el estallido social chileno, las movilizaciones populares toman vida propia y son difíciles a controlar para los actores políticos. Aunque la distancia entre jubilarse, con una pensión promedio de 1400 euros mensuales (aproximada un millón doscientos pesos chilenos) a los 62 versus a los 64 parece menor (y cualquier de los dos está lejos de la realidad chilena), nadie quiere ceder, e incluso tienen incentivos políticos para no ceder, así que la disputa tiene para rato.
En el siglo diecinueve, cuando las revoluciones políticas que comenzaron en Francia luego convulsionaron a todo el viejo continente, se decía que: “cuando Francia estornuda, toda Europa se resfría”. En el siglo veintiuno, los eventos de Francia también tienen relevancia para muchos otros países, y me atrevería a decir que también tienen lecciones para Chile. Aparte del hecho que la propuesta reforma de pensiones es uno de los temas más vigentes actualmente en Chile, los dos países tienen mucho más en común que el vino y la bandera tricolor. Son dos países hipercentralizados, con una gran concentración del poder político y económico en sus respectivas capitales, lo cual facilita las grandes movilizaciones urbanas que toman las calles principales de Paris tanto como de Santiago. Son dos regímenes fuertemente presidencialistas (en el caso francés, el legado de Charles de Gaulle, y en el chileno, de un general mucho menos admirable), y los dos tienen un sistema multipartidista en transición, con la decadencia del antiguo establishment político (la Concertación y la Alianza en Chile; los socialistas y los gaullistas en Francia) y la aparición de nuevas fuerzas políticas. Son dos países de herencia católica y latina, pero secularizados y con cada vez más diversidad cultural y racial. Finalmente, hay un parentesco evidente entre la izquierda democrática en los dos países, que comparten los ideales de un estado social.
Sin embargo, el tema de pensiones es uno de los más complejos de resolver en los dos países y, en Chile, el impacto de los retiros de los AFP durante la pandemia hace el problema más urgente y más difícil de resolver. Tanto los chilenos como los franceses quieren entregar pensiones dignas como una pieza clave del estado social, pero el envejecimiento de la población y las bajas en las tasas de natalidad (más avanzados en Francia que en Chile, aunque van en la misma dirección) hace difícil calzar los números. En los dos países, la inmigración (que atrae más personas jóvenes en edad laboral para equilibrar el número creciente de pensionados) puede ser parte de la solución, pero hay que vencer los sentimientos xenofóbicos y regular el flujo de inmigrantes por vías legales. Frente al costo cada vez mayor de pensiones para una población de tercera edad en aumento, hay que subir tanto los sueldos como los impuestos, pero estas acciones pueden chocar con la lógica del orden neoliberal globalizado, dado que el capital puede huir hacia los paraísos fiscales si los cambios son demasiado abruptos.
En suma, es un tema muy complicado, esencial de resolver, pero sin soluciones fáciles. Y como lo que pasa hoy en Francia podría pasar mañana en Chile, es de esperar que Macron y sus críticos logren un acuerdo que permita un retiro digno a los pensionados franceses sin romper el chanchito fiscal.
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