Siempre es difícil interpretar la voluntad del pueblo cuando el resultado es tan mixto, sobre todo sin la perspectiva del tiempo. Pero yo diría que el mensaje más claro que dio el electorado es un doble rechazo de parte de una mayoría que no está conforme con ninguna de sus opciones. Sea como sea, ninguno de los dos partidos tendrá el camino fácil en los próximos dos años, y las elecciones presidenciales de 2024 serán más reñidas que nunca.
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Este martes 8 de noviembre fue día de las elecciones de medio término en los EE.UU. (así se llaman porque no se elige el presidente, pero sí todos los miembros de la Cámara de Diputados, un tercio del Senado, y muchos gobernadores estatales a lo largo del país). En la mayoría de los casos de las últimas décadas, el partido del presidente pierde escaños en las elecciones de medio término (tal fue el caso con Clinton en 1994, con Obama en 2010 y 2014, y con Trump en 2018), sea porque la oposición está más motivada, o porque la tendencia natural de un país dividido casi en 50-50 es hacia el equilibrio político. Con la aprobación pública del presidente Joe Biden en un nivel relativamente bajo (un poco más de 40% en las encuestas), muchos comentaristas auguraron una victoria republicana aplastante. Sin embargo, según la información disponible hasta ahora, el resultado parece más bien un empate, con el control del Congreso todavía incierto. En mi opinión, lo más probable, es que, cuando termine el conteo de votos, serán los republicanos los que ganen control de la Cámara de Diputados por un margen mínimo, y que los demócratas conserven el control del Senado, también por un margen mínimo, pero también es posible lo contrario. Sea como sea, ninguno de los dos partidos tendrá el camino fácil en los próximos dos años, y las elecciones presidenciales de 2024 serán más reñidas que nunca.
Siempre es difícil interpretar la voluntad del pueblo cuando el resultado es tan mixto, sobre todo sin la perspectiva del tiempo. Pero yo diría que el mensaje más claro que dio el electorado es un doble rechazo de parte de una mayoría que no está conforme con ninguna de sus opciones. Es verdad que Joe Biden ha perdido popularidad desde el comienzo de su mandato hace dos años, por causa de la inflación, la persistencia del COVID, y el fracaso de algunos de sus propuestas políticas. Los gaffes o errores no forzados tampoco ayudan—en un evento público, invitó una persona en silla de ruedas a ponerse de pie y, en otro, preguntó por una diputada que había fallecido unas semanas antes—y aunque nunca han estado ausentes en su larga carrera, tales errores se han hecho más notorios en su vejez. Pero hay otra gran verdad importante—el expresidente Donald Trump es mucho más odiado por gran parte del pueblo norteamericano, con una evaluación negativa muy por encima del cincuenta por ciento. Lo habitual es que los expresidentes se retiren del escenario público—Bill Clinton se dedicó a su fundación filantrópica, George W. Bush volvió a su rancho y comenzó a pintar cuadros de dudosa calidad, y Barack Obama practica deportes y recorre el mundo. Solo Donald Trump, quien sigue picado por su derrota, insiste en reabrir heridas que ya comienzan a cicatrizarse, mantiene sin evidencia cualquiera, que hubo fraude en los comicios del 2020, y exaspera y aburre hasta a sus seguidores más devotos. Entre los principales factores que mantienen la administración Biden a flote está el temor de la vuelta de Trump, y la visibilidad del expresidente en las campañas hizo daño a los republicanos en las elecciones legislativas. Si los comicios del martes pasado indican un cierto rechazo al gobierno de Biden, también muestran un rechazo aún más enfático hacia Donald Trump. Este doble rechazo abre la puerta al recambio generacional y a la llegada de nuevas caras políticas.
El gran ganador de las elecciones recientes se llama Ron DeSantis. El gobernador republicano de Florida, el tercer estado más populoso del país, arrasó en su campaña de reelección, con casi un sesenta por ciento de los votos emitidos. Ganó en Miami, con mucho apoyo entre la comunidad latina (sobre todo entre cubanos y venezolanos), y hasta triunfó en St. Petersburg, ciudad que representaba su adversario demócrata, Charlie Crist, en el Congreso. DeSantis es un representante de la derecha dura, quien manipuló los sentimientos racistas y homofóbicos de parte del público para ganar votos, pero también es un líder carismático y astuto, con gran arrastre electoral. Fue entre las voces más fuertes en contra de las restricciones de salud pública durante la pandemia del COVID, insistiendo en mantener la economía abierta (gran cosa en un estado que depende del turismo), y sus políticas fiscales a favor de los empresarios le han ganado el apoyo del mundo patronal. Poco tiempo después de su triunfo, que figuró entre las primeras mayorías a nivel nacional, los órganos del oficialismo republicano, el canal Fox News y el diario The Wall Street Journal, bautizaron al gobernador como la nueva carta de su partido para la elección presidencial del 2024. El líder republicano del Senado, Mitch McConnell, quien mantiene una relación bastante fría con el expresidente, también hizo declaraciones a favor del gobernador. Hay un cálculo político en estos reconocimientos: tanto los medios de prensa como el senador McConnell creen que DeSantis tendría mayores posibilidades de ganarle a Biden que un expresidente en desgracia que enfrenta varios problemas legales. Estos reconocimientos no pasaron desapercibidos por Trump, quien en un ataque de celos fulminó contra DeSantis en un discurso incoherente y autoreferente. Con tan solo 44 años de edad, presentando una imagen atractiva junto a una esposa joven y tres hijos pequeños, el gobernador de Florida ofrece un contraste notable con sus rivales septuagenarios, y promete una candidatura enfocada hacia el futuro.
Pero también hay figuras políticas del lado demócrata quienes subieron de perfil por los resultados del martes pasado. Dos de los más importantes, que también ganaron por márgenes amplios, son Gretchen Whitmer, de 51 años, reelegida como gobernadora de Michigan, y Joshua Shapiro (49 años), electo como el nuevo gobernador de Pennsylvania. Son dos de los estados claves para las elecciones principales–dieron sus votos a Obama en 2008 y 2012, a Trump en 2016, y a Biden en 2020, y sería difícil para cualquiera ganar la presidencia sin ellos. Whitmer, quien ya fue considerada como una de las opciones de vicepresidente en 2020, se hizo conocida al nivel nacional por mantenerse firme en las medidas contra el COVID y por defender el derecho al aborto legal. Estos actos le ganaron el odio de la ultraderecha, y fue el objetivo de una conspiración escalofriante de secuestro y asesinato de parte de un grupo extremista. Por su parte, Shapiro se destacó en el papel de fiscal general de su estado, luchando contra la corrupción y el abuso policial y defendiendo los intereses del ciudadano común. En sus papeles de ejecutivos de dos estados claves, también representan una barrera importante a un nuevo intento de Donald Trump de robarse una elección presidencial. Los dos vencieron a candidatos republicanos que recibieron la aprobación personal del expresidente, y se establecieron como promesas futuras de su partido. Si aspiran a un futuro presidencial, los dos serían candidatos históricos: Whitmer podría ser la primera presidenta mujer de los EE.UU., o Shapiro el primer presidente judío.
¿Viene el recambio generacional? Es cierto que hace falta. A sus 79 años, Joe Biden es el presidente más viejo que ha tenido Estados Unidos, y con 76 años, Donald Trump ocupa el tercer lugar, detrás de Ronald Reagan, quien terminó su mandato a los 77. Hay razón para dudar que los norteamericanos, en 2024, elijan un mandatario octogenario, sobre todo porque ambos ya muestran señales de vejez. Si los republicanos logran el control de la Cámara Baja, como muchos anticipan, lo que queda de la agenda legislativa de Biden morirá en el Congreso, y tanto el presidente como los miembros de su gabinete se enfrentarán a un escenario difícil, por fiscalizaciones y comisiones legislativas de mala fe, y tal vez a un nuevo proceso político de impeachment. Es posible, en este caso, que decida dar un paso al costado, contento con su legado histórico de haber defendido su país de los peligros del autoritarismo, de la pandemia, y de la crisis económica. Nadie más puede decidir por él, y (a menos que caiga su aprobación al suelo) ninguno de l@s jóvenes promesas del partido Demócrata va lanzar una campaña presidencial mientras el presidente actual siga en la carrera. Si Biden decide no buscar la reelección, sería mejor para su partido que lo decida luego, para que los nuevos liderazgos puedan surgir en los próximos dos años, que prometen ser muy movidos y llenos de conflictos.
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