El espectro de ideas que van desde el neoliberalismo de Macron, que ha tratado de imponer en los últimos años una serie de reformas de marcado sesgo antitrabajadores, hasta el racismo y el ultraconservadurismo de Zemmour, que plantea crear un ministerio de “remigración” para expulsar de Francia a un millón de “musulmanes indeseables”[1], representan el 68% del total de la votación en Francia.
Patricio Escobar
Si recurriéramos a un titular muy utilizado para describir el tipo de definición que supone una elección presidencial, debiéramos decir “Francia en la encrucijada”. Ciertamente, podemos cambiar Francia por cualquier otro país y serviría igual, porque alude a un punto en que hay que elegir un camino y, al hacerlo, se está descartando otro distinto. Pero, ¿podría haber una definición que no supusiera algún tipo de alternativa? Francia ha vivido un proceso electoral en que, de manera inédita, se enfrentaba una derecha conservadora con otra derecha que lo es aún más. Por cierto, ganó la derecha.
Francia tiene 68 millones de habitantes, que lo hace el segundo país europeo con más población después de Alemania. El 80% de su población vive en ciudades, donde han alcanzado una esperanza de vida de 83 años. Tienen una renta per cápita de €36.500 y un 10,3% son inmigrantes, la mitad de los cuales son de origen africano. A pesar de la crisis y la pandemia, se mantiene con un moderado 7,4% de desempleo y con una inflación en el mismo tono, de un 4,5% anual; muy lejos del 7,3% de Alemania y del 9,8% de España. Todo muy relacionado con el hecho de tener una producción doméstica del 67% de la energía que consume, proveniente de una red de centrales nucleares.
Francia posee un sistema político semipresidencial, con un presidente que es el jefe del Estado y un primer ministro, que es jefe de gobierno. Este último es nombrado por el presidente, y refleja la correlación de fuerzas en la Asamblea Nacional.
Francia es el principal destino turístico del mundo. El año 2019, antes de la pandemia, recibió 90 millones de visitantes. París es la tercera ciudad más visitada del orbe (después de Bangkok y Londres), y el sector turístico contribuye con el 8% del PIB del país.
Las candidaturas
Lo primero a consignar es la amplia variedad de candidaturas a la presidencia del país, reflejando buena parte de las vertientes ideológicas posibles, aunque no necesariamente con algún respaldo ciudadano significativo. Si los ordenamos ideológicamente de izquierda a derecha, podríamos tener el siguiente resultado, incluyendo la adhesión obtenida el domingo pasado:
Nathalie Artaud (1979), representante de Lucha Obrera. Se define como comunista revolucionaria. Afirma que el comunismo, una sociedad sin clases y el internacionalismo, es el antídoto contra la crisis social y la xenofobia. Reivindica la figura de León Trotski y su ideario para enfrentar la lucha de los trabajadores contra el capitalismo. Obtuvo el 0,6% de los votos.
Philippe Poutou (1967), representante del Nuevo Partido Anticapitalista. Realizó una campaña centrada en una “crisis ecológica, sanitaria, social y democrática”. Su discurso estuvo destinado a promover la movilización social. Desde su perspectiva, es el propio sistema capitalista el que produce estas crisis en la sociedad y debe ser reemplazado. Consiguió el 0,8% de los votos.
Fabien Roussel (1969) es secretario nacional del Partido Comunista Francés. Ha desarrollado una carrera de activista desde que se encontraba en la educación secundaria. En las dos elecciones anteriores, su partido apoyó a Mélenchon. Promueve una laicidad estricta y defiende la energía nuclear. Obtuvo el 2,3% de los votos.
Yannick Jadot (1967), político y ecologista. Hasta el 2009 trabajó en Greenpeace, desde donde pasó al Parlamento Europeo. Se presentó a estas elecciones a través del polo ecologista, luego de ganar una primaria del sector el año pasado. Su programa reúne políticas de defensa del medioambiente y de justicia social. Obtuvo el 4,6% de los votos.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon(1951), político de larga trayectoria: dejó el PSF, del que fue ministro en el gobierno de Lionel Jospin, en 2008. En las últimas dos elecciones ha encabezado un frente de izquierdas y en 2017 se presentó con Francia Insumisa. Parte importante de su discurso se centra en las políticas de la UE frente a la crisis, destinadas a favorecer al sector financiero en contra de los más postergados. En esta elección obtuvo un 22%, a solo 500 mil votos de Marine Le Pen.
Anne Hidalgo (1959), de familia andaluza, emigró a Francia muy joven. Triunfó en las primarias presidenciales del PSF y desde la alcaldía de París, que ganó el año 2014, se lanzó a estas elecciones. Se le consideraba la esperanza para detener la debacle en que se venía encontrando el socialismo francés. Recogió el 1,7% de los votos.
Emmanuel Macron (1977), actual presidente de Francia que se lanza a la reelección con su partido En Marcha. Sin duda es un caso singular: llegó al palacio Eliseo para ser ministro de economía del socialista François Hollande en 2012, y cinco años después se postuló a la presidencia. Las principales políticas implementadas suponen un importante giro neoliberal, más allá de lo realizado por Sarkozy. Pasó a segunda vuelta con un 27,5%.
Jean Lassalle(1955), político de centro derecha con una dilatada trayectoria en la gestión municipal. A lo largo de su carrera, ha estado siempre cerca de posiciones conservadoras, pero con una visión pragmática. Se le considera un euroescéptico. Representa a su propio partido Résistons (Resistamos). Obtuvo el 3,2% de los votos.
Valérie Pécresse(1967), política de la derecha clásica, representante del partido tradicional de ese sector Los Republicanos. Se ha definido como “dos tercios Merkel y un tercio Thatcher”. Sus ideas fundamentales se relacionan con restaurar el orden, el orgullo francés y bajar los impuestos. Obtuvo el 4,8% de los votos.
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan(1961), político ultraconservador. Afirma que Jeanne D’Arc se le apareció en sueños para pedirle que salvara a Francia. No está del todo claro si la doncella de Orleans le alcanzó a explicar de qué. Su consigna es “hacer realidad las promesas incumplidas”. En las elecciones de 2017 apoyó a Marine Le Pen en segunda vuelta. Ahora obtuvo el 2,1%.
Marine Le Pen (1968), ultraderechista. Heredó el liderazgo del Frente Nacional de manos de su padre, al que luego expulsó cuando quiso lavar la imagen de la organización, tras la derrota en segunda vuelta en el 2017. De ahí que los postulados xenófobos y ultraderechistas del rebautizado Reagrupamiento Nacional, hayan quedado un tanto solapados. Obtuvo un 23,3% y, como en el 2017, va a segunda vuelta con Macron.
Eric Zemmour (1958). Periodista ultraconservador, se define a sí mismo como “reaccionario y patriota”. Su discurso político está inspirado en la teoría de la Gran Sustitución, en que los valores y tradiciones francesas serán reemplazadas por el islam. Su partido Reconquista, nace para defender los valores “traicionados” por Marine Le Pen y combatir el feminismo, el movimiento LGTBI y, por cierto, a los inmigrantes. Obtuvo el 7,1% de los votos.
¿Qué ha pasado en Francia?
Una constatación primaria es que el espectro de ideas que van desde el neoliberalismo de Macron, que ha tratado de imponer en los últimos años una serie de reformas de marcado sesgo antitrabajadores, hasta el racismo y el ultraconservadurismo de Zemmour, que plantea crear un ministerio de “remigración” para expulsar de Francia a un millón de “musulmanes indeseables”[1], representan el 68% del total de la votación en Francia.
Ciertamente, no es fácil explicar el profundo arraigo que ha alcanzado un conservadurismo político cuyas versiones más radicales reúnen la mayoría de las adhesiones del sector. Incluso, uno de los resultados más llamativos es el hundimiento de la derecha tradicional, representada por Valérie Pécresse, a la cabeza del partido Republicanos, que no alcanzó el 5% de los votos. Esa debacle ha quedado eclipsada por el aún más dramático colapso del PSF, que hace apenas una década eligió su último presidente de la república, Françoise Hollande, y hoy solo concitó el 1,7% de la votación.
La sociedad francesa, tradicionalmente, ha tenido una postura favorable a las reivindicaciones sociales y que, sin demasiado esfuerzo, se ha lanzado a las calles a desafiar al Estado. La modernidad nace con los parisinos asaltando la Bastilla. La época de las revoluciones tiene entre sus principales hitos a la Comuna de París, tanto como la lucha social del siglo XX lo tiene en mayo del 68. Del mismo modo, la globalización, en su versión neoliberal en el presente siglo, es arrinconada por las movilizaciones de “los chalecos amarillos”. ¿Cómo es que esa sociedad deriva hacia ese perfil de adhesión política ultraconservador?
Lo que se observa es un fenómeno de una “votación trumpeana”, y encuentra su arraigo en el mismo proceso que llevó a la extrema derecha republicana al gobierno de Estados Unidos, o a los ingleses a elegir salir de la UE. En cada caso, un profundo malestar se arraiga entre los distintos sectores sociales que son castigados por la globalización neoliberal. Este proceso, que supuso una reorganización productiva en el mundo de gran calado, castigando con severidad a los trabajadores de los países que estaban integrados en los circuitos de valor de manera subordinada en primer lugar. La globalización se acompañó de una nueva división internacional del trabajo. Sin embargo, tras los primeros años, el reordenamiento alcanzó a las economías desarrolladas. Mientras China se convertía en la factoría del mundo, los países
[1] https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-ultraderechista-zemmour-anuncia-ministerio-remigracion-expulsar-ilegales-francia-si-elegido-20220322130920.html
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