En medio de la llegada al gobierno del ex presidente del PS, Álvaro Elizalde, y el anuncio de la Estrategia Nacional del Litio, los días corren para una elección de consejeros constitucionales que no despunta de su fomedad. La lógica electoral indica que la oposición con sus tres listas estará más cerca del 62%, reproduciendo el resultado del plebiscito; el partido más votado será el Republicano y en el oficialismo Apruebo Dignidad y el PS debieran duplicar a la lista Todo por Chile (PPD, DC, PR).
Por Rolando Cárdenas
Las solicitudes del editor
Fome es el mejor álbum de estudio del grupo Los Tres y uno de los mejores de la música popular chilena, y su título refleja muy bien la evaluación que existe de las elecciones del 7 de mayo. Pero el editor solicita hacer referencia a estas elecciones en nuestra página de análisis político.
Antes de entrar en esa materia, démonos tiempo para algunas referencias a lo que pasó en la semana política que estuvo muy cargada y relevante.
El PS, eje del gobierno
Desde hace bastante tiempo hemos indicado que el gobierno del presidente Boric ha convivido con la ambigüedad: la realidad política lo lleva en una dirección y su alianza de origen lo empuja en otra. Esa situación ha significado jugar permanentemente al empate o sea, concedo una decisión en una dirección y compenso con otra en la dirección opuesta. Nada más parecido a la parálisis.
Sin embargo, la nominación de Alvaro Elizalde en el ministerio Secretaría General de la Presidencia en reemplazo de Ana Lya Uriarte, pareciera una decisión que marca un rumbo.
Elizalde fue presidente del PS y del Senado, y desde esta última instancia fue uno de los adalides de la defensa de la Cámara Alta ante los intentos de la Convención Constitucional fallida de eliminar esta instancia y optar por un sistema unicameral.
Su gestión en la testera del Senado fue transversal e integradora, permitiéndole consolidar redes amplias. A diferencia de Uriarte, Elizalde negociará institucionalmente con la oposición y no irá tras la búsqueda de votos individuales en el proceso de construir mayorías políticas.
Y, por lo visto, esas capacidades las pondrá a prueba por encargo del presidente, porque al nombrar a Elizalde, Boric le indicó que debería “negociar hasta que duela”. Lo que se busca es que este gobierno logre la tan ansiada reforma de pensiones, la reforma tributaria y la reforma de salud, que son esenciales para cumplir las metas que plantea el programa de gobierno. Para ello, es necesario que ambas partes cedan en sus posiciones, lo que no será fácil con ambos extremos del arco político, y sobre todo en el ámbito de la extrema derecha donde republicanos, y ya lo hemos visto estos días, aprovechará cualquier instancia para diferenciarse de los partidos tradicionales de ese eje político.
Por tanto, esta decisión del presidente pareciera que marca un rumbo definitivo y consolida al PS como el partido eje de gobierno.
Si alguien tiene dudas del camino elegido, está como muestra la decisión del comité de ministros de aprobar unánimemente el proyecto minero Los Bronces Integrado, en la Región Metropolitana.
Por cierto, ya hay voces de rechazo por parte de grupos ambientalistas, a las que el gobierno replica con el conjunto de condiciones impuestas para garantizar el respeto al medioambiente, pero el hecho objetivo es que finalmente esta fue una decisión política que se impulsó desde Hacienda y que voto favorablemente hasta la ministra del Medio Ambiente.
Enade y política del litio
Esta semana, además, el presidente Boric estuvo por primera vez en la Enade, reunión empresarial anual que fija posiciones y busca el diálogo entre el gobierno de turno y los más importantes actores empresariales del país. En palabras de Allamand, el epicentro del poder fáctico.
En este encuentro se vivió un ambiente de búsqueda de consensos y ambas partes manifestaron su voluntad de construir en conjunto. En palabras de Juan Pablo Luna era lo esperable, y hay que consignar que de no avanzar en este camino el futuro del país no se ve nada auspicioso.
Posteriormente, en cadena nacional el presidente dio a conocer la política nacional del litio, que se asienta en los siguientes ejes: constituir la empresa nacional del litio, explotación público-privada pero con control del estado, incorporar cadenas de valor, y avanzar en negociaciones desde ya con las actuales empresas que tienen las concesiones a través de Codelco.
El presidente de la CPC, la organización patronal, Ricardo Mewes, criticó duramente el anuncio, indicando que esto desincentivará la inversión privada.
Dos consideraciones: una, se comenzará desde ahora a negociar con SQM y Albemarle, por lo que se actuará de manera pragmática, pensando en lo óptimo para el país por parte del gobierno. Los privados nacionales por su parte deben tener presente que hay mucho interés de empresas internacionales de participar es sociedad con el estado en la explotación de este mineral, ya que se prevé un fuerte aumento de su demanda y las empresas quieren tener garantizado sus flujos de este producto.
El mercado de todas maneras reaccionó al anuncio y los papeles de SQM cayeron un 18% en Chile y también en Estados Unidos.
Hay que tener presente en todo caso que la propuesta del gobierno es eso, una propuesta ya que muchos de sus componentes requieren cambios legales y ya sabemos que ese es un escenario complejo donde nada está dicho.
Elecciones de consejeros, proyecciones y posibles resultados
Volvamos al encargo del editor, y reiteremos que la palabra que mejor define la elección del 7 de mayo es “fome”. Inclusive muchos equipos de campaña de distintas candidaturas comentan que se encuentran frecuentemente con personas que ni siquiera saben que hay elecciones.
En términos generales, esta elección es poco lo que decidirá, la comisión experta está construyendo un borrador de constitución que sólo podrá modificarse por 3/5 de los consejeros, es decir 30 consejeros y no pareciera que oposición ni oficialismo lo logren. Aunque debemos reconocer que las indicaciones a los acuerdos generales logrados en la comisión experta han comenzado a calentar el ambiente. Principalmente, la libre elección se ha transformado en un campo de definición bien interesante.
En términos globales la lógica electoral indica que la oposición con sus tres listas estará más cerca del 62%, reproduciendo el resultado del plebiscito, lo que es muy complejo para el oficialismo. El partido más votado será el partido Republicano y en el oficialismo Apruebo Dignidad y el PS debieran duplicar a la lista Todo por Chile (PPD, DC, PR).
Por tanto y en esto le concedemos un punto al editor, la elección es fome pero los resultados tendrán consecuencias.
Hay que hacer la salvedad previa de que siempre hay que tener presente la máxima que las elecciones no se ganan ni se pierden, solo se interpretan. Tomando eso en consideración, veamos escenarios posibles.
La disputa por la hegemonía en la derecha dependerá mucho de la votación final de los republicanos de Kast. Si se consolidan con ventaja como partido más fuerte de la derecha, tendremos precandidatos de la derecha (Matthei, Macaya, Carter, Ossandon, Parisi), endureciendo su discurso y generando un escenario con pocas probabilidades de consensuar reformas, es decir las condiciones serán las que imponga Kast. Otra posibilidad en este escenario es que los partidos de Chile Vamos tiendan a converger en una sola fuerza política.
En el caso de Apruebo Dignidad y Socialismo Democrático, un buen resultado de Unidad para Chile puede consolidar la alianza PS – FA, proyectando esta alianza en un proyecto de mediano plazo.
Todo por Chile (PPD, DC, PR), pueden tener una baja votación, pero un buen resultado en número de consejeros, si la estrategia de llevar figuras reconocidas es exitosa, lo que permitiría a sus partidos aminorar su declive. Un fracaso en votos y consejeros debiera tender a que estas fuerzas al igual que en la derecha converjan en un solo movimiento político, máxime si finalmente en la nueva constitución se instalan los umbrales de votación mínima para seguir existiendo legalmente como partidos.
Como ven es una elección que es poco glamorosa, pero que tendrá efectos que modificarán el escenario político.
En lo que dice relación con nuestra región, lo que indica la lógica es una ventaja de 2 a 1 en consejeros electos a favor de la oposición, realidad que solo se puede alterar si la lista Todo por Chile logra evitar ser doblada por la lista de Chile Seguro.
A modo de chimento, hay que recordar que la UDI sufrió un fuerte quiebre entre el senador Macaya y el ex senador García Huidobro y el ex diputado Barros. Hoy toda esa ala disidente de la UDI esta tras la campaña del ex presidente de la patronal, Juan Sutil, que es candidato por RN, por tanto, no es indiferente para Macaya el resultado de esta elección en su propia casa.
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or plugin that might be able to fix this issue.
If you have any recommendations, please share.
Many thanks!
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