Con el nuevo gobierno de Lula se abre una ventana de oportunidad para que la región, hoy día la gran ausente, adquiera una voz propia en los grandes desafíos que enfrenta la humanidad. Está en el interés y la vocación de Chile que nuestro gobierno participe activamente en ese proceso.
Jaime Gazmuri Mujica
Gobernar Brasil en la actual coyuntura nacional e internacional es un desafío inmenso. Los cuatro años del gobierno de Bolsonaro han fracturado profundamente a la sociedad, erosionado su cultura democrática y la convivencia pacífica y civilizada de sus ciudadanos. Además, el país enfrenta las secuelas sociales y económicas de la pandemia y el complejo escenario económico y geopolítico mundial.
El presidente Lula está consciente de la complejidad y magnitud de las tareas que asumirá. Lo expresó en el discurso que dio a la prensa el mismo día de su victoria:
“El pueblo brasileño quiere vivir bien, comer bien, tener una buena casa. Quiere un buen empleo, un salario reajustado siempre sobre la inflación, quiere tener salud y educación pública de calidad. Quiere libertad religiosa. Quiere libros en vez de armas. Quiere ir al teatro, ver cine, tener acceso a todos los bienes culturales, porque la cultura alimenta nuestra alma. El pueblo brasileño quiere volver a tener esperanza”. Y añadió, ya casi al terminar:
“A partir del 1 de enero voy a gobernar para 215 millones de brasileños, y no solo para los que votaron por mí.”
La situación económica que enfrentará la nueva administración es complicada, pero no dramática. EL PIB crecerá este año en torno al 0.5% y el próximo sobre el 2%, la inflación ronda el 8% y el desempleo ha disminuido este año, aunque con trabajo informal. Más compleja será la situación fiscal, con un déficit presupuestario del orden del 8% para 2023, con la consecuente dificultad para financiar los compromisos en materia de política sociales.
Desde el punto de vista político, Lula enfrentará un Congreso donde sus partidos aliados serán una minoría consistente, de casi un tercio de una Cámara de Diputados de 513 miembros. El bolsonarismo duro, que tiene expresión fundamentalmente en dos partidos, puede llegar a una cifra similar o un poco menor. El resto del Congreso está constituido por un conjunto de partidos más bien conservadores y extremadamente clientelares, muchos de los cuales han apoyado a gobiernos del más diverso signo. Con ellos, el gobierno podrá negociar apoyos.
A mi juicio, el mayor desafío, no solo del nuevo gobierno, sino de la sociedad y la democracia brasileña, será lidiar a futuro con la cultura y la política del bolsonarismo. Lo expresa bien el teólogo Frei Betto: “el más complejo desafío (de Lula y su gobierno) será enfrentar la cultura bolsonarista asumida por millones de ciudadanos que alabaron al “mito”, y ahora son testigos de su caída y viven la amargura de la victoria lulista. Esta gente no está organizada, pero es autoritaria, agresiva, violenta. Su propósito es sabotear las instituciones democráticas, propagar fake news y la filosofía del negacionismo, reforzar prejuicios (respecto de las mujeres, los negros, los indígenas y los gays) y anarquizar la cultura (…) el bolsonarismo no es un sistema filosófico, es una secta religiosa congregada en torno a un líder miliciano”.
El triunfo de Lula ha tenido una significativa repercusión internacional. En su primera intervención pública, Lula declaró: “hoy le estamos diciendo al mundo que Brasil está de regreso”.
Con Lula, Brasil volverá a ocupar un rol activo en un escenario internacional particularmente complejo. Una de sus orientaciones centrales será promover la integración de América del Sur y de América Latina. Se abre una ventana de oportunidad para que la región, hoy día la gran ausente, adquiera una voz propia en los grandes desafíos que enfrenta la humanidad. Está en el interés y la vocación de Chile que nuestro gobierno participe activamente en ese proceso.
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