En el siglo XXI, el populismo, tanto de derecha y de izquierda, está de moda, mientras que los votantes castigan a las pocas figuras responsables que advierten que todo tiene su precio, que no se puede gastar más de lo que se recauda, y que “pan para hoy, hambre para mañana” no es una estrategia sostenible. Es de esperar que la tormenta política que rodea a Gran Bretaña se calme, y que, tanto allá como en el resto del mundo, pase el momento del populismo fácil, y que los pueblos y sus gobernantes dejen de construir castillos en el aire.
David Allen Harvey
Durante el siglo diecisiete, cuando las revoluciones y guerras civiles de Inglaterra presentaron un contraste notable con el absolutismo de Luis XIV, los franceses decían que el gobierno del país vecino era tan tormentoso como las mares que lo rodeaban. En los siglos siguientes, los papeles se invirtieron; mientras Francia se convirtió en la tierra de las revoluciones y conflictos interiores, Gran Bretaña, en su época de oro, ofrecía un modelo de continuidad. Desde la “Revolución Gloriosa” de 1688, que puso fin a las ambiciones absolutistas de la casa Stuart, y la llegada al trono de Jorge I, fundador de la dinastía actual, en 1713, el Reino Unido ha forjado una imagen de estabilidad y serenidad. Londres se convirtió en el capital financiero del mundo, con la libra esterlina como la moneda que daba más confianza a los inversionistas internacionales, y la política parlamentaria se evolucionó a pasos lentos pero firmes, con alternancia entre la centroderecha (los “Tories” y luego el Partido Conservador), y la centroizquierda (desde los “Whigs” del siglo dieciocho al Partido Liberal, en el siglo diecinueve y el Partido Laborista, a partir del comienzo del siglo veinte).

Sin embargo, en los últimos años, la tormenta ha vuelto a la política británica. Comenzó con el separatismo escocés, que en 2014 exigió un referendo sobre la independencia del territorio norteño y que, por poco, fracasó. Dos años después, el entonces primer ministro, David Cameron, aceptó la demanda de algunos ingleses de permitir un referendo sobre la continuidad de Gran Bretaña en la Unión Europea. Cameron pensaba que el referendo iba a fracasar, y que después iba a silenciar a sus críticos y seguir adelante con la política de austeridad que gobernaba el país desde la crisis del 2008. Pero, para la sorpresa de todos, el “Brexit” ganó, y Cameron, quien se había declarado en contra de esta opción, sintió la necesidad de dejar su cargo. Su sucesora, Theresa May, tuvo que implementar el proceso de divorcio con la Unión Europea, que resultó ser mucho más espinoso que lo esperado, y renunció después de tres años frente a una rebelión dentro de su propio partido.

Con la victoria del “Brexit” se lanzó la era del populismo de la derecha en Gran Bretaña. Tiene varias características que la define: la nostalgia posimperial, el nacionalismo, la xenofobia, y la fe ciega en un neoliberalismo extremo, según el cual el mercado siempre tiene la razón, las políticas sociales solo fomentan el ocio de los pobres, y la prosperidad de los más ricos gotea hacia abajo (el famoso “trickle-down theory”). Estos principios han sido el evangelio del Partido Conservador desde los gobiernos de Margaret Thatcher en los años ochenta. Pero se han intensificados en los últimos años, con el poder creciente de la tradicional prensa amarilla y las nuevas redes sociales, que simplifican los temas complejos de política y economía a titulares chillones y memes virales. El nuevo ambiente político se define por su falta de realismo y de responsabilidad, que busca la gratificación inmediata sin pensar en las consecuencias.

La figura emblemática del nuevo populismo fue el flamante Boris Johnson, primer ministro entre julio de 2019 hasta septiembre de 2022. Se hizo conocido como el alcalde de Londres entre 2008 y 2016, gracias a un manejo magistral de los nuevos medios de comunicación. Nunca tuvo miedo de hacerse el payaso, como cuando voló sobre la ciudad en un zipline para promocionar los Juegos Olímpicos de 2012, y con su pelo platinado siempre despeinado presentaba una imagen entre Donald Trump y Leonardo Farkas. Tiene un carisma innegable y gran facilidad de conectarse con el pueblo, con la amabilidad de un niño revoltoso aun pasado los cincuenta. Más que nada, tiene la facilidad de decir lo que sea necesario políticamente en el momento adecuado, sin miedo de contradecir hoy lo que dijo ayer, ni de mentir descaradamente, y con la capacidad de prometer el sol y la luna a sus votantes sin jamás explicar cómo los alcanzaría. Fue uno de los principales portavoces de la campaña de Brexit en 2016, campaña que, a base de una media verdad (que Gran Bretaña, como uno de los países ricos de la Unión Europea, pagaba más a los fondos comunes de la UE que lo que recibía de vuelta), prometió que el país estaría mucho mejor solo que mal acompañado, y que un divorcio político traería grandes beneficios sin ningún costo. Mientras el gobierno de Theresa May, colega de su propio partido, trataba de resolver temas legales y burocráticos complejos con la Unión Europea, Johnson, como aliado desleal, la atacaba por detrás y, cuando ella finalmente cayó, estuvo en la posición adecuada para sucederla. Sus promesas de beneficios fáciles sin costos fueron muy atractivas para los votantes, incluso a muchas personas de las clases populares que antes votaban por el Partido Laborista, y ganó las elecciones parlamentarias del 2019 por amplia mayoría.
Pero, de pronto, vinieron las dificultades. Los lideres de la Unión Europea no sintieron ninguna obligación de contribuir a las fantasías de gloria de los británicos, y declararon de forma unánime que el Reino Unido no podría optar solo por los beneficios de la integración europea sin asumir ninguno de los costos. Impusieron controles fronterizos y aduaneros, que han dificultado el transporte de personas y de productos entre las islas británicas y el continente, y el comercio exterior ha caído como resultado. El país también ha sufrido la falta de trabajadores en el campo y en el servicio doméstico, papeles que anteriormente ocupaban los trabajadores migrantes de Europa del Este. Todo esto era predecible, pero parece que a muchos británicos los tomó por sorpresa. No obstante, el golpe más duro para el gobierno de Boris Johnson fue la pandemia del COVID-19. Aquí encontró un adversario que no respondió a sus promesas mentirosas ni a sus conductas teatrales. Más de doscientos mil británicos murieron del coronavirus, y la vida pública del país se interrumpió. La revelación de que Johnson y sus colegas celebraron fiestas clandestinas mientras los demás británicos respetaron la cuarentena causó tanto furor que al final el payaso en jefe no tuvo más opción que renunciar.

En la campaña interior del Partido Conservador para elegir un sucesor a Johnson, Liz Truss se ofreció como una Thatcher modelo 2.0. Prometió continuar las políticas de Johnson sin sus falencias personales, y de imponer reformas neoliberales para reactivar la economía. Mostró, también, su falta de principios firmes al prometer seguir adelante con el Brexit, pese a que se había opuesto anteriormente a esta opción. Venció al excanciller Rishi Sunak, considerado un traidor por algunos militantes conservadores, debido a su oposición a Johnson, y por un par de días alcanzó a ser la última primer ministro del largo reinado de Isabel II, quien la recibió al palacio de Balmoral en su último acto público antes de su muerte.

Sin embargo, el gobierno de Truss fracasó desde el principio. La razón de su desgracia fue su política económica y fiscal absolutamente irrealista. Como su ídolo Margaret Thatcher, prometió bajar los impuestos, sobre todo sobre los ricos y las grandes empresas, para reactivar la economía. No obstante, el problema económico principal que enfrenta Gran Bretaña no es el desempleo, como en la época de la “dama de hierro,” sino la inflación. Una caída brusca de los impuestos tendría el efecto de introducir más “liquidez” a los mercados, lo que solo aumentaría aún más la inflación (el mismo efecto macroeconómico que tuvieron los retiros de AFP en Chile), y como serían los ricos los más beneficiados, tampoco sería de gran ayuda para el pueblo. Pero como las propuestas económicas del nuevo gobierno no contemplaban reducciones del gasto fiscal (al contrario, propuso subsidiar a la energía dado el aumento del precio internacional del petróleo y del gas), también tendría el efecto de aumentar el déficit fiscal a niveles insostenibles.

La reacción de los mercados y de los ciudadanos británicos fue inmediata. Cayó dramáticamente la bolsa de Londres, y el valor de la libra esterlina bajó, al llegar por primera vez cerca a la paridad con el dólar norteamericano. La revista The Economist predijo el 11 de octubre que el gobierno de Truss tenía la expectativa de vida de una lechuga en el supermercado, y tres días después, el sitio web The Daily Star presentó una imagen viral del primer ministro al lado de una lechuga, preguntando cuál duraría más tiempo. Truss trató de salvarse sacrificando a su ministro de hacienda, Kwasi Kwarteng, uno de sus aliados principales, pero solo se compró unos días más de vida política. Frente a la renuncia de Truss el 20 del mismo mes, el Daily Star proclamó, “¡Ganó la lechuga!” El gobierno de Truss terminó siendo el la más corto de la historia británica, pasando el récord anterior de George Canning, quien murió en el cargo en 1827. Ahora, por segunda vez en lo que va del otoño boreal, los militantes del Partido Conservador tendrán que elegir un nuevo líder. El Partido Laborista ya aparece como el gran ganador de las próximas elecciones parlamentarias del 2024.
La gran ironía de la caída de Liz Truss es que fue víctima del libre mercado, el máximo ídolo del neoliberalismo que ella misma siguió durante toda su vida política. Pero su fracaso también es el fracaso del populismo, de la promesa fácil, de un gobierno por tweets y memes en lugar de informes y estudios profundos. En el siglo XXI, el populismo, tanto de derecha y de izquierda, está de moda, mientras que los votantes castigan a las pocas figuras responsables que advierten que todo tiene su precio, que no se puede gastar más de lo que se recauda, y que “pan para hoy, hambre para mañana” no es una estrategia sostenible. Es de esperar que la tormenta política que rodea a Gran Bretaña se calme, y que, tanto allá como en el resto del mundo, pase el momento del populismo fácil, y que los pueblos y sus gobernantes dejen de construir castillos en el aire.
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