La pregunta del momento es: ¿habrá Tercera Guerra Mundial? Es improbable que Rusia recurra a las armas nucleares tácticas, cuyo alcance no supera el territorio europeo, pero esa situación cambiaría si se abre un nuevo frente en contra de las pretensiones de Occidente, puesto que empujaría, probablemente, al uso de armas estratégicas por parte de la OTAN.
Patricio Escobar
A medida que avanzan los días, las dificultades que enfrenta el ejército ruso para lograr sus objetivos militares y políticos en Ucrania se hacen más evidentes. Es muy probable que las primeras proyecciones de Moscú fueran que se trataría de una campaña con un desarrollo bastante rápido en que, tras algunos enfrentamientos, el ejército de Ucrania colapsaría. Esto no constituye una visión antojadiza, a la luz de los números. El presupuesto militar de Rusia es diez veces superior al de Ucrania. Por cada soldado ucraniano, hay cuatro rusos (aunque Rusia solo ha movilizado menos de la quinta parte de sus efectivos). Por cada avión de combate de Ucrania, hay siete aviones rusos, y por cada tanque con que cuentan, hay tres rusos. Hay que insistir en que Rusia no ha declarado una movilización general, pero de todas formas existe una diferencia sustancial entre ambos.[1] En ese contexto, cabe preguntarse por las razones que explican las dificultades de Rusia.
Ciertamente, la moral de los combatientes es una variable que tiene una gran incidencia en el resultado de un enfrentamiento. La defensa que realizó el ejército alemán de su territorio, una vez que hubo de cruzar el Rin en su retirada final durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial, fue de las más enconadas del conflicto. Temiendo lo mismo por parte de Japón, EE.UU. prefirió lanzar la bomba atómica sobre Hiroshima y Nagasaki, antes de exponer a su infantería a más batallas cruentas por unos metros de territorio. Ni hablar de la propia defensa del Ejército Rojo en Stalingrado, Leningrado y Moscú, ante la presión de las tropas nazis. Ejemplos como esos sobran; sin embargo, no explican completamente los resultados. A pesar de la tenacidad que exhiben los combatientes que defienden su hogar, quienes se encuentran en inferioridad de fuerzas y condiciones, acaban cediendo, con lo cual volvemos a la pregunta inicial: ¿por qué los rusos están enfrentando tantas dificultades para neutralizar a Ucrania?
La Guerra Proxy
Nos hemos pasado la mitad del siglo XX, y lo que va de este, temiendo el estallido de la Tercera Guerra Mundial. Según las previsiones, sería la última, en tanto supondría el uso de armamento de destrucción masiva -sí, ese que nunca se encontró en Irak-, como son las armas nucleares. Sabemos que los recursos de los grandes antagonistas de los últimos setenta años son suficientes para acabar varias veces con todo el planeta. Por esa razón, se ha supuesto siempre que ese conflicto era una hipótesis nula, un escenario imposible. Sin embargo, desde hace mucho estamos viviendo conflictos que enfrentan a los dos grandes contendientes de la escena geopolítica global, la antigua URSS, hoy Rusia, y EE.UU., en lo que se conoce como “guerras proxy” o “guerras subsidiarias”.
En este tipo de guerra se puede diferenciar el enfrentamiento interno entre distintos bandos o actores, pero que está englobado como parte de otra rivalidad entre grandes potencias o actores externos. De ese modo, sin que “la sangre llegue al río”, se producen constantes choques en que los actores, tras bambalinas, miden su poder.
Indudablemente, ese tipo de enfrentamiento posee un trasfondo ideológico vinculado a las visiones de política interna de los países y a los escenarios geopolíticos. Pero también requerimientos bastante más prácticos, como es el deshacerse de inventarios obsoletos, relacionados con la industria militar.
Ejemplos recientes de Guerras Proxy
Corea (1950 – 1953). El impulso por la unificación de la península llevó a la República Popular Democrática de Corea a traspasar la frontera del paralelo 38, acordada luego de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. En los tres años de conflicto, se enfrentaron una coalición de 17 países, encabezados por EE.UU., contra Corea del Norte, China y la URSS, que, recién el año 1949, se había convertido en una potencia nuclear. En distintos momentos de la guerra, unos y otros contendientes tomaron la capital del otro bando, pero ninguno logró mantener la posición alcanzada. Junto a la partición de Berlín y el surgimiento de la RDA en 1949, fue el punto de partida de la llamada Guerra Fría. En 1951, Douglas MacArthur, comandante de la coalición, amenazó con usar armas nucleares contra China, pero fue desautorizado por Harry Truman.[2]Luego de tres millones de muertos se firmó un armisticio entre los contendientes formales: Corea del Sur y la República Popular Democrática de Corea (Corea del Norte). Rusos, chinos y norteamericanos habían puesto soldados, y casi todos los recursos disponibles, sin lograr el resultado esperado.
Vietnam (1955 – 1975). La raíz del conflicto es la llamada Primera Guerra de Indochina, entre 1946 y 1954, en que se desarrolló la Guerra de Liberación Nacional de los vietnamitas contra la Francia colonial. Derrotados los franceses, en la batalla de Dien Bien Phu, llegó EE.UU. para reemplazarlos en el intento por evitar la reunificación entre el Sur y el Norte. La presencia de “asesores” norteamericanos en el ejército del Sur, durante los primeros años de la década del sesenta, dio paso, en 1964, a la intervención directa. Cerca de medio millón de norteamericanos pasaron por Vietnam y el 11% de ellos perdieron la vida. EE.UU. arrojó cerca de seis millones de toneladas de bombas; usó toda la capacidad disponible, como las bombas guiadas por láser, excepto la nuclear. Por su parte, Vietnam del Norte contó con la asistencia de la URSS y de China, con un abastecimiento ilimitado de armas de infantería, como el AK-47 soviético, el mejor fusil de la época. Adicionalmente, dio entrenamiento a los pilotos de aviones de combate, que utilizaron 51 aviones, entre ellos los de última generación MIG-21,que, entre 1967 y 1968, derribaron 350 aviones de la USAF. A diferencia de Corea, la guerra de Vietnam tuvo un claro perdedor: EE.UU., que no pudo evitar la reunificación del país.[3] Pero, para efectos de la Guerra Fría, se mantuvo el pulso entre las grandes potencias.
Nicaragua (1979 – 1990). Inmediatamente posterior al triunfo del FSLM, se inició el alzamiento de la contrarrevolución. Organizada y financiada por la CIA, y tomando como base la antigua Guardia Nacional Somocista, contó con el apoyo de países como Argentina y los vecinos Honduras y Costa Rica, desde los cuales se realizaban incursiones. Los Contras utilizaron métodos de guerrilla y asaltaron la economía y la administración, especialmente en el norte de Nicaragua. No buscaban tanto una improbable conquista del poder por la fuerza de las armas, como atizar el descontento popular contra el gobierno sandinista saboteando la economía y los programas sociales. Se atacaron escuelas y centros de salud, se destruyeron cultivos y se quemaron fábricas. El aporte directo de EE.UU. consistió en el minado y bloqueo de los puertos nicaragüenses, el financiamiento de “la Contra” y la provisión del armamento que debía utilizar, todo lo cual se vio interrumpido desde 1986 con el estallido del escándalo Irán-Contra. La contrapartida fue el apoyo soviético a la revolución sandinista,[4] tanto a través de la participación de Cuba en la formación de las estructuras militares del FSLM, y su apertrechamiento durante los años de la revolución y, después de 1980, de manera directa, mediante los acuerdos entre ambos gobiernos.[5] En 1990, un agotado FSLN perdió las elecciones.
Afganistán (1978 – 1992). En 1978 se inicia el gobierno de Nur Mohammed Taraki, que va a enfrentar la resistencia de distintos sectores, lo cual conduce a que solicite la intervención de la URSS en apoyo del gobierno afgano, lo que desata la guerra civil. Mientras esto ocurre, se produce la crisis de los rehenes en Teherán y el gobierno norteamericano vuelve su atención al Oriente Medio. El 24 de diciembre de 1979 se produce la invasión soviética.[6] A los pocos meses, comienza la ayuda norteamericana que, entre 1980 y 1984, involucra 30 millones de dólares por año. El intento soviético de controlar un país montañoso, inaccesible y con una acendrada presencia de lógicas tribales fuera de las grandes ciudades, compromete la eficacia del esfuerzo bélico.[7] Al mismo tiempo, la ayuda norteamericana a los muyahidines, con armas e inteligencia, limita el avance soviético. En 1985, EE.UU. entrega 250 millones en armamento, lo que duplica al año siguiente. En 1987, la ayuda conjunta de USA y Arabia Saudí alcanza los 1.260 millones de dólares. En la década de los años 80, la URSS no contaba con la inteligencia ni las capacidades logísticas necesarias para enfrentar una guerra de guerrillas en las montañas. En ellas, resultaba de escasa utilidad su capacidad tecnológica en vehículos blindados, artillería y otros dispositivos. En febrero de 1986, Gorbachev anuncia la retirada de las tropas soviéticas de Afganistán, la que culmina en febrero de 1989.
En todos estos casos, las partes en disputa están acompañadas de los recursos y disposición de las grandes potencias de la Guerra Fría. Fueron conflictos extremadamente cruentos y que, en la mayoría de los casos, se saldaron sin resolver el equilibrio de los verdaderos contendientes.
El papel de la OTAN en la guerra
La guerra de Ucrania puede ser vista como una nueva guerra proxy. En ella están en juego los intereses de Rusia y Ucrania, y también los de EE.UU. y la UE, a través de la OTAN. Esto es resultado de un largo proceso que se inició incluso antes de 2014 con el movimiento popular del Euromaidán que derrocó a Víktor Yanukóvich.[8] Desde entonces, el nuevo gobierno inició su acercamiento a la OTAN. En los últimos meses, previo a la invasión rusa, la estrategia adoptada por Occidente frente a la amenaza del conflicto fue incrementar el apoyo militar a Ucrania. Antes de la entrada de las tropas rusas, ya habían entregado cerca de 2.000 millones de dólares en armamento a Ucrania.[9]Como parámetro, hay que tener en cuenta que el presupuesto militar de Ucrania del año 2020 era de 5.600 millones de dólares.[10]
Desde el momento en que cruzaron la frontera las tropas rusas, el apoyo oficial de Occidente a Ucrania se multiplicó. Expresado en dólares, la UE más Inglaterra, han entregado a Ucrania cerca de 5.200 millones. De lo que fue inicialmente armamento ligero (fusiles de asalto, pistolas y municiones), se ha pasado a misiles, artillería y otro armamento pesado.[11]Esto incluye helicópteros MI17, lanchas patrulleras, sistemas de radar, distintos abastecimientos militares, y aviones.[12]
Adicional al armamento, los abastecimientos e insumos militares, EE.UU. y la OTAN están proveyendo a Ucrania de inteligencia y tecnología para la localización y fijación de objetivos, incluida la ubicación de altos mandos rusos en el teatro de operaciones.[13]
¿Es esta la Tercera Guerra Mundial?
Volviendo a la interrogante inicial, es claro que Rusia está teniendo más dificultades de las previstas en Ucrania. Por una parte, se han constatado errores de diseño en las operaciones, como es la relación entre infantería y blindados. Con un número insuficiente de efectivos, no es posible brindar protección a los carros y tanques. De ahí la gran efectividad de los lanzacohetes Javelin que, a pesar de ser utilizados por operadores con escasa formación que deben acercarse mucho al blanco, han resultado letales para las fuerzas rusas.
Hasta ahora, el presupuesto de defensa de Ucrania prácticamente se ha duplicado fruto del apoyo de la OTAN, pero ese presupuesto de menos de seis mil millones debiera multiplicarse, hasta superar los veinte mil millones con el nuevo paquete de ayuda militar que está aprobando EE.UU. por un total de cuarenta mil millones de dólares.
En este contexto, la OTAN está financiando el armamento, los pertrechos y abastecimiento de las tropas, proveyendo la inteligencia necesaria y entregando los recursos que permiten la contratación de ejércitos privados, en operación, actualmente. Es un enfrentamiento entre Rusia y la OTAN, y puede escalar el último peldaño. Determinar si esta es o no la Tercera Guerra Mundial depende de un solo factor: la aparición de un nuevo teatro de operaciones en Asia, que indudablemente estaría en el mar de China, en el estrecho de Taiwán. Es improbable que Rusia recurra a las armas nucleares tácticas, cuyo alcance no supera el territorio europeo, pero esa situación cambiaría si se abre un nuevo frente en contra de las pretensiones de Occidente respecto al dominio global, puesto que empujaría, probablemente, al uso de armas estratégicas por parte de la OTAN.
[1] https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-60515547
[2] https://www.efemeridespedrobeltran.com/es/eventos/junio/corea.-la-guerra-de-corea-que-enfrento-a-corea-del-norte-y-china-con-ayuda-de-armamento-sovietico-con-corea-del-sur-y-estados-unidos.-no-gano-nadie.-hoy-25-de-junio-de-1950-comienza-la-guerra-de-corea
[3] https://es.rbth.com/historia/81519-recordando-guerra-vietnam-papel-crucial
[4] https://elpais.com/diario/1980/03/20/internacional/322354819_850215.html
[5] http://rabida.uhu.es/dspace/handle/10272/11180
[6] https://www.despertaferro-ediciones.com/2021/afganistan-historia-invasion-derrota-sovietica-ascenso-talibanes/
[7] https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/media/downloadable/files/links/c/o/conflicto_afganistan.pdf
[8] https://jacobinlat.com/2022/02/24/como-una-insurreccion-apoyada-por-estados-unidos-ayudo-a-llevarnos-a-la-guerra/
[9] https://www.france24.com/es/programas/especial-noticias/20220304-ucrania-rusia-guerra-ayuda-militar
[10] https://datosmacro.expansion.com/estado/gasto/defensa/ucrania
[11] https://www.dw.com/es/qu%C3%A9-pa%C3%ADses-env%C3%ADan-armas-a-ucrania-y-de-qu%C3%A9-armas-se-trata/a-60751494
[12] https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-60800105
[13] https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/ultima-hora-invasion-rusa-ucrania-directo_6_8966960_1089545.html
758 comentarios en “La guerra en Europa”
Hay que señalar que en los 8 años de guerra entre los combatientes prorusos y el ejercito ucraniano en la región del Dombàs han muerto 16 mil personas de una población ucraniana en la cual el 80% son personas prorusas.Ucrania no quizo resolver por la vía democrática la entrega de poder regional o autonomía regional a esa población de Donesk y Lugansk.El derechista Selenky optó por colocar en el frente oriental a un regimiento nazi.Un enorme error político y militar,ya que fué Rusia la nación que màs víctimas tuvo durante la segunda guerra mundial por parte de la invasión nazi.Además,el gobierno ucraniano prohibió la enseñanza del ruso en las escuelas y así fué fortaliciendo,además,con una guardia nacional el ideario nacionalista de ultraderecha.Esto no es casual,esto no obedece a una ingenuidad de un presidente con curriculum de cómico y actor de comedias.Esto obedece a la intención de expandir las fronteras de la OTAN para seguir militarizando los países neutrales y seguir gastando los presupuestis en defensa nacional en la compra de armas y la industria del hierro europeo y norteamericano al igual que en los inicios de la primera guerra mundial.
Estados Unidos y la OTAN han destruído países enteros con enormes genocidios ,contar de instalar sus intereses económicos y políticos con sus gobernantes y transnacionales,Irak,Afganistán,Yemen,Libia,Siria,el Líbano ,todas las dictaduras militares en centro y sudamérica en la década de los 70 y 80,y también en acoso del pueblo palestino de parte de Israel en dónde Estados Unidos omite la represión y muerte al pueblo y nación palestina.
El mundo no puede seguir siendo dominado unilateralmente por una poderosa alianza militar que se ideologiza hacia la derecha,ya que èsto es una bomba de tiempo que puede llegar a confrontar definitivamente al mundo no alienado y así terminar en una tercera guerra mundial.
Ucrania es la víctima del fracaso de la diplomacia,del debate democrático en el seno de la ONU para mediar en los conflictos reales regionales de mayor autonomía y gobernanza local con identidad propia que es la región del Dombàs con las autoproclamadas repúblicas populares.
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A further issue is that video games are typically serious anyway with the key focus on knowing things rather than entertainment. Although, we have an entertainment aspect to keep your young ones engaged, each one game is usually designed to work towards a specific skill set or programs, such as instructional math or science. Thanks for your write-up.
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I also believe that mesothelioma is a uncommon form of many forms of cancer that is often found in those people previously familiar with asbestos. Cancerous tissues form inside the mesothelium, which is a protecting lining that covers most of the body’s bodily organs. These cells commonly form from the lining of your lungs, belly, or the sac which encircles one’s heart. Thanks for sharing your ideas.
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Currently it seems like Expression Engine is the preferred blogging platform available right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you’re using on your blog?
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Thanks for sharing your ideas on this blog. Also, a myth regarding the banking institutions intentions if talking about foreclosures is that the financial institution will not take my payments. There is a certain amount of time the bank will take payments here and there. If you are as well deep in the hole, they are going to commonly require that you pay the actual payment 100 . However, that doesn’t mean that they will have any sort of installments at all. In the event you and the lender can be capable to work one thing out, this foreclosure practice may cease. However, should you continue to miss payments within the new strategy, the home foreclosure process can pick up exactly where it was left off.
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