En vez de dos grandes bloques, el sistema político chileno se ha dividido en cuatro o cinco nuevas familias políticas. Como ninguna de estas nuevas fuerzas es capaz de alcanzar una mayoría de los votos por sí sola, el éxito político en el presente y futuro dependerá de la capacidad de formar nuevos pactos transitorios que, por su naturaleza y por la fragmentación política del país, serán necesariamente menos estables y más pasajeros que los grandes bloques del pasado.
Por David Allen Harvey
El nuevo gobierno del presidente Gabriel Boric ha tenido un comienzo difícil. Las controversias sobre algunos de sus nuevos ministros, subsecretarios, y embajadores; las críticas de algunos parlamentarios y convencionales de su propio sector; las situaciones de emergencia en las macrozonas norte y sur y, sobre todo, el fracasado intento de la ministra del Interior, Izkia Siches, de abrir un diálogo en la Araucanía, que terminó en disparos. Todo anuncia que la luna de miel del nuevo gobierno ya terminó, y el trabajo difícil recién comienza. Por muy preparados e idealistas que puedan ser los nuevos dirigentes, los últimos acontecimientos demuestran la verdad de la frase popular: otra cosa es con guitarra. La situación actual es el producto de varios cambios que coinciden en el mismo momento. Además de marcar un recambio generacional, con la llegada al poder de los millennials, es el primer gobierno que rompe con el duopolio de la Concertación y la Alianza, los dos grandes bloques que dominaron la política chilena desde la vuelta a la democracia hace treinta años. De hecho, estos dos bloques se ven más débiles que nunca, y es una pregunta abierta si sobrevivirán hasta las próximas elecciones. Hay una cierta lógica en la decadencia de las fuerzas políticas del fin de siglo pasado —representan la continuación de la campaña del Sí o el No del final de la dictadura de Pinochet— que ya no tiene la relevancia ni la convocatoria para las nuevas generaciones nacidas en democracia.
Pero, además del recambio generacional, el cambio de sistemas de votación tuvo un impacto decisivo en la fragmentación política actual. Durante las primeras décadas de la nueva democracia chilena, las elecciones legislativas fueron regidas por el sistema binominal, creado específicamente al final de la dictadura para garantizar una sobrerepresentación en el Congreso de una derecha minoritaria. Hasta la adopción de la nueva ley electoral en 2015, el sistema binominal mantuvo el duopolio de la Concertación y la Alianza, con un empate virtual casi garantizado (excepto los pocos casos en que un pacto logró doblar al voto del otro en un distrito electoral), y dificultó el ingreso de nuevas fuerzas políticas al Congreso. La nueva ley electoral, que estableció un sistema de representación proporcional, les quitó a los dos grandes pactos la ventaja estructural que habían tenido hasta entonces, facilitando la elección de candidatos de partidos nuevos o independientes. Pero los sistemas de representación proporcional tienden a la fragmentación política, y Chile en los últimos años ha seguido esta tendencia.
En vez de dos grandes bloques, el sistema político chileno se ha dividido en cuatro o cinco nuevas familias políticas. Como ninguna de estas nuevas fuerzas es capaz de alcanzar una mayoría de los votos por sí sola, el éxito político en el presente y futuro dependerá de la capacidad de formar nuevos pactos transitorios que, por su naturaleza y por la fragmentación política del país, serán necesariamente menos estables y más pasajeros que los grandes bloques del pasado.
Partamos por la derecha. Una de las grandes sorpresas de las últimas elecciones presidenciales fue el colapso de la derecha tradicional, cuyo representante, Sebastián Sichel, terminó en un humillante cuarto lugar en la primera vuelta, y el éxito inesperado de la ultraderecha populista con la candidatura de José Antonio Kast. Todo indica que la brecha llegó para quedarse: no es verosímil que fuerzas políticas tan diversas como el Partido Republicano, por un lado, y Evópoli y el ala liberal de Renovación Nacional, del otro, puedan coexistir mucho tiempo bajo el mismo techo. Lo más lógico sería un divorcio político, con un pacto de derecha dura (los Republicanos con la UDI), y otro de centroderecha.
Pero la situación tampoco está más unida ni en la centroizquierda, ni en la nueva izquierda. Seguimos con la antigua Concertación de los Partidos por la Democracia, producto de una gran alianza para luchar contra la continuación de la dictadura en el plebiscito de 1988. Siempre fue un matrimonio de conveniencia. La Democracia Cristiana no es, y nunca ha sido, un partido de izquierda: en el resto del mundo, es un partido de centroderecha con figuras como Konrad Adenauer y Angela Merkel en Alemania. Es notable y sorprendente que una alianza tan amplia haya sobrevivido tanto tiempo y haya tenido tanto éxito. En mi opinión, el pueblo chileno todavía no valora lo suficiente el legado de los gobiernos de la Concertación, que hicieron de Chile el país más próspero y estable de América Latina. Sin embargo, esta alianza cumplió su ciclo, ahora está bien muerta, y no veo cómo se podría resucitar. La campaña del No ya no es el referente más importante de la política chilena; el estallido social y el proceso constituyente han tomado su lugar. Hay diferencias profundas entre los socialistas/PPD y los DC, y los casos de corrupción han debilitado a ambos sectores. En las últimas elecciones presidenciales, no lograron ponerse de acuerdo a tiempo para hacer primarias en la misma fecha que la Alianza y el Frente Amplio, y cuando finalmente las hicieron, muchos de sus votantes ya habían saltado del barco hacia el nuevo buque del actual presidente Boric. Ya se perciben los contornos del nuevo paisaje político: los socialistas y los PPD se han integrado el nuevo gobierno, mientras que los DC han pasado a la oposición. Es probable que los primeros se unan a una nueva alianza de la izquierda democrática, mientras que sus antiguos socios o integrarán un nuevo pacto de centroderecha (como ya varias de sus exfiguras, como Mariana Aylwin, que lo hicieron incluso antes de las elecciones), o se mantendrán como el comodín del juego político, apoyando algunos proyectos del gobierno y rechazando a otros. Ahora, también hay desunión en la nueva izquierda. A pesar de la amistad y cercanía entre el nuevo presidente y su vocera, Camila Vallejo, todavía está por verse si el PC puede ser un aliado leal al nuevo gobierno. El alcalde Daniel Jadue, que parece no darse cuenta de que perdió en las primarias, ha criticado duramente el nombramiento de figuras concertacionistas y gremialistas como Mario Marcel en el nuevo gobierno. Más grave, en mi opinión, fueron las declaraciones de la diputada Karol Cariola intentando justificar el fallido atentado contra una ministra de su propio sector, un hecho sin precedente en la historia reciente del país, y por lo cual tendría por lo menos que dar explicaciones y pedir disculpas. Pero, además, hay desacuerdos programáticos: notablemente, con las propuestas de un quinto retiro (dicen quinto, aunque no hubo cuarto) de las AFP, contra las preferencias declaradas del nuevo gobierno, que prefiere conservar recursos financieros para establecer un nuevo sistema de pensiones. La Convención Constitucional también ha dado el ejemplo de una nueva izquierda intolerante, inmadura, y sin inclinaciones de hacer acuerdos y negociar con las otras fuerzas políticas, elementos básicos de la democracia. Es de esperar que no se farreen la mejor oportunidad en casi medio siglo de terminar con una Constitución escrita en dictadura y, francamente, antidemocrática.
Así es el nuevo paisaje político, con cuatro o cinco sectores distintos: la ultraderecha, la derecha democrática, los DC (si no se unen ni con sus antiguos socios de la Concertación, ni con la centroderecha), la izquierda democrática de los partidos del gobierno actual (Frente Amplio/PS/PPD), y la ultraizquierda (PC, PH, etc.). Una mayoría viable tendría que contar con por lo menos dos, y tal vez tres, de estos grupos, y el gobierno de Boric, para aprobar sus propuestas de leyes en el Congreso, necesitará el apoyo tanto del DC como de las fuerzas de la ultraizquierda, razón por la cual tuvieron una especie de cónclave la semana pasada. No será fácil lograr acuerdos que puedan satisfacer partidos tan distintos. Un gobierno de centroderecha, si logra ganar en cuatro años más, no lo tendría más fácil, y probablemente tendría que formar un acuerdo de todos los sectores desde los Republicanos hasta los DC. Tales coaliciones de conveniencia son, por su naturaleza, frágiles y efímeras. Hay ejemplos en la política europea que anuncian lo que vendrá en Chile. En Alemania, el partido liberal o FDP ha vacilado entre sus dos grandes rivales, el partido de centroderecha CDU y el de centroizquierda SPD, haciendo y deshaciendo alianzas a su antojo y según los vientos predominantes de la política germana. Alemania también tiene nuevas fuerzas políticas de ultraizquierda y de ultraderecha que complican la matemática electoral. En Gran Bretaña, hay un partido de centro—los Liberal Democrats—que han alternado entre pactos con los conservadoresa su derecha (hoy en el gobierno, y con los laboristasa su izquierda, sin contar los nacionalistas escoceses, quienes preferirían dar vuelta la mesa y formar su propio gobierno nacional aparte. No sería raro que en Chile, los DC hicieran el mismo papel de vaivén entre sus rivales de izquierda y de derecha. En estos tiempos de polarización, sería difícil para el partido de los expresidentes Aylwin y Frei ganar una elección presidencial, pero también sería difícil para un pacto de centroizquierda o de centroderecha lograr una mayoría en el Congreso sin contar con la Falange, y sin negociar acuerdos difíciles que podrán decepcionar a sus ideólogos. La fragmentación política hace que el futuro de Chile se vea más inestable que su pasado reciente. Pero mirando las cosas por el lado más positivo, será más difícil que los mismos de siempre puedan establecerse eternamente en el poder, y con más opciones viables entre las cuales escoger. Los ciudadanos se sentirán más representados y con más posibilidades de hacerse escuchar. Aunque también tendrán que acostumbrarse a navegar con vientos más impredecibles.
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