Chile se ha transformado en un ejemplo de cómo no hacer las cosas en una economía de mercado. Por eso no debería sorprender que el período de rápido crecimiento en los 90s duró tan poco, o por qué nuestra economía ya era un desastre antes de la pandemia ― con una tasa promedio de crecimiento de la productividad de apenas un 0.4% anual en la década anterior a 2019. Tampoco que en este tipo de entorno exista un parlamento que apruebe una ley Longueira (una que regale, en lugar de licitar ― como dice la teoría económica neoclásica ―, las cuotas pesqueras), o una comisión de Minería del Senado que termine despachando una ley de royalty gatopardista.
José Gabriel Palma
Universidad de Cambridge, Inglaterra,
Universidad de Santiago de Chile
El año pasado, la Cámara de Diputados aprobó un proyecto de ley sobre el royalty (a mi juicio, muy bien diseñado). Era uno de esos proyectos de ley que hacían época. Sin embargo, la comisión de Minería del Senado, a pesar de los mejores esfuerzos de su presidenta, lo tergiversó de tal forma que lo transformó en una farsa.
En el caso del cobre, si uno suma y resta en forma adecuada, y no como lo hace el proyecto de ley que despachó la comisión de Minería del Senado, el nuevo royalty recauda en forma neta básicamente lo mismo que el actual (diseñado por Lagos y luego reformulado por Piñera, a raíz del terremoto).
Un ejemplo paradigmático de gatopardismo: una gran puesta en escena para dar la apariencia de cambio (“ahora sí vamos a tener un royalty de verdad”) para que en realidad todo siga igual. Es el arte de cambiar todo para que no cambie nada.
Parece que para el empresariado no hay inversión más rentable que sus contribuciones a la política. Las mineras gastaron unos pocos millones de dólares financiando carreras políticas (ver también aquí, y aquí; ver también mi columna anterior), y ahora están a un paso de poder ahorrarse la molestia de tener que pagar unos US$ 6 mil millones al año en royalties (lo que hubiesen tenido que pagar extra en forma neta de acuerdo al proyecto de la Cámara ―para el cálculo de esta cifra ver mi columna anterior). Si uno comparase las dos cifras, la inversión del financiamiento de la política podría haber llegado a tener una rentabilidad de hasta un 100.000%.
La excusa del Senador Girardi en el debate en la Comisión de Minería del Senado, al proponer desmantelar el royalty ― y contra toda evidencia empírica ―, es el mismo estribillo de siempre: hay que asegurar que las mineras sigan siendo “competitivas”. Sin embargo, ni él ni los invitados a exponer a la comisión, que usaban esa excusa, nunca se molestaron en definir ese término. No es exageración decir que en el debate general del royalty, dentro y fuera del parlamento, cuando alguien no tiene nada que decir tiende a recurrir a ese cliché. Para Paul Krugman, el tema de la “competitividad” incluso se ha transformado en una “obsesión peligrosa”; lo que ha sesgado la política económica hacia prioridades equivocadas.
Lo relevante es que los conglomerados a los cuales habría que defenderle su “competitividad” ― esto es, continuar regalándoles, o prácticamente regalándoles, su insumo principal: el cobre que está en la roca mineralizada y el litio en el salar, los cuales nos pertenecen a nosotros y no a ellos ― no sólo están entre las corporaciones más rentables de Chile, sino, según el Financial Times, incluso entre las más rentables del mundo. También están entre los que reparten más dividendos en el mundo (como Antofagasta Minerals, la cual, de todas las grandes empresas del sector materiales clasificadas en el FTSE100, fue la que repartió los mayores dividendos en el mundo en el período que ellos estudian). Sin embargo, dicho senador y tantos más igual insisten que para que puedan seguir siendo “competitivas” hay que continuar regalándoles nuestro recurso natural. Eso, en una economía de mercado, se llama subsidio. ¿Qué tal justificarlo?
Como bien indica un exgerente general de Codelco ― según el “ROCE” (o return on capital employed), una razón financiera que se usa comúnmente para evaluar la rentabilidad de una empresa. El año pasado, midiendo la rentabilidad según la metodología del Banco Mundial, esta fue bastante superior al 100% (según balances corporativos, ésta es cercana al 90%). Esto es, habrían recuperado en ese año toda la inversión neta hecha desde que llegaron a Chile (ver también aquí).
Si bien el discurso neo-liberal siempre se ha caracterizado por crear relatos y armonizar narrativas con elementos que no solo son heterogéneos, sino incluso contradictorios, tratar de compatibilizar su prédica por una economía de mercado desregulada, con su insistencia de que tenemos que subsidiar a algunos de los conglomerados más rentables del mundo con varios miles de millones de dólares, es una exageración; incluso para sus propios estándares.
Lo que ha caracterizado nuestro modelo rentista es que, si bien toda empresa tiene que pagar por sus insumos, aquellos que explotan nuestros recursos naturales (o bienes comunes) ― como las mineras, las pesqueras, las del agua, y tantas más ―, y sin que tenga racionalidad económica alguna, son la excepción: ellas tienen el derecho al acceso gratuito a su insumo principal (el recurso natural), aunque este no les pertenece aun en la actual Constitución.
Así, desde el principio de las reformas se ha “fabricado un consenso” (en el sentido Chomsky) que dichas empresas ― sea o no constitucional, vaya o no vaya contra la voluntad popular ― tienen una especie de ‘derecho natural’ a apropiarse de nuestros recursos naturales.
¡Qué sensación de déjà vu con lo que pasó en la “Ley Longueira”! Senadores con evidentes conflictos de interés y lobistas del sector redactan la legislación que consolida el regalo (o práctico regalo) de nuestros recursos naturales.
A raíz de todo lo anterior, escribí una columna en este medio; dos personas involucradas en estos hechos, más otras dos que se sumaron por cuenta propia, publicaron una respuesta ― en la cual no contestan ninguna de mis críticas fundamentales. Esta columna es la contra-respuesta.
Quizás deberíamos partir por aclarar qué es un royalty, pues todo indica que sigue existiendo una gran confusión. Para los detractores no es más que un impuesto, y para muchos simpatizantes es una regalía (pues lo entienden como una “ius regale” o “prerrogativa regia”, aquella que comprende a los derechos inherentes y exclusivos del poder soberano del gobernante). En realidad no es ni lo uno ni lo otro: es el ejercicio de un derecho de propiedad: el del dueño de los recursos naturales (todos nosotros y nosotras) para cobrar a quien quiera extraerlos. (Para mayor análisis ver aquí).
Si se quiere buscar un paralelo, lo más cercano sería el concepto de “mediería” en la agricultura. Si un agricultor quiere trabajar la tierra de otro, le tiene que pagar al dueño de la tierra por el derecho a trabajarla. Igual debería ser en la minería: si una minera quiere extraer el cobre que está en la roca o el litio en el salar, nos debería tener que pagar a los dueños y dueñas por dichos minerales, y a precio de mercado (tomando en cuenta las externalidades).
Para la Academia de la Lengua, todo esto es muy claro: el royalty es: “la cantidad que se le paga al propietario de un derecho a cambio del permiso para ejercerlo”. Si el Estado decide arbitrariamente no cobrar, o cobrar a precio de liquidación, no sólo es un subsidio, sino un atentado a nuestro derecho de propiedad.
Lo que queda por determinar es el “precio de eficiencia” que vamos a cobrar por el acceso a nuestros recursos naturales, uno que no sólo maximice la recaudación sino que también tome en cuenta las múltiples externalidades de la operación y el bienestar social.
1.- Problemas centrales del proyecto despachado por la comisión de Minería del Senado.
1.1.- La captura del Estado y sus instituciones por parte del gran empresariado
La forma como operaron las mineras para neutralizar el proyecto del royalty de la Cámara fue algo evidente, y me tocó presenciarlo porque participé en la discusión de este proyecto en la Comisión de Minería del Senado (invitado por la Presidente de la comisión).
Como nos dice incluso la teoría económica neoclásica – aquella que supuestamente informa nuestro modelo -, una condición necesaria para que los mercados sean eficientes es que ningún agente debe tener la capacidad para influir en la determinación de los precios o en la regulación: esto es, todos tienen que ser price-takers y rules-takers. Sino, los mercados van, necesariamente, a funcionar en forma ineficiente ― como sucede ahora, y en forma extrema, en los mercados financieros internacionales.
Si hay, de verdad, competencia, ningún agente podría tener el poder necesario para manipular el mercado, la regulación o la política económica. De no haber, es la receta para tener mercados distorsionados. Lo que pasó con la pesca y está a punto de pasar (mejor dicho, a continuar pasando) en la minería son ejemplos paradigmáticos.
Si por cualquier razón (y hay algunas que son poderosas) surgen agentes de gran tamaño, lo que se necesita es exactamente lo opuesto a Estados “subsidiarios”: lo que se requiere (como en el Asia emergente) son Estados capaces de “disciplinar” al gran empresariado, tanto para que no abuse de su poder (en áreas como su relación con la pequeña y mediana empresa y con los consumidores) como para que invierta sus rentas en forma productiva ― y en el país.
La combinación que tenemos en nuestro país es la más ineficiente de todas: Estado subsidiario, y conglomerados de tal tamaño que las ventas de los 10 más grandes llegaron en 2018 a los US$ 120 mil millones. Como nos indica la OECD, citando a un indicador del World Economic Forum, Chile es una de las economías del mundo donde un número mínimo de conglomerados tiene el dominio absoluto del mercado local.
En este sentido, Chile se ha transformado en un ejemplo de cómo no hacer las cosas en una economía de mercado. Por eso no debería sorprender que el período de rápido crecimiento en los 90s duró tan poco, o por qué nuestra economía ya era un desastre antes de la pandemia ― con una tasa promedio de crecimiento de la productividad de apenas un 0.4% anual en la década anterior a 2019. Tampoco que en este tipo de entorno exista un parlamento que apruebe una ley Longueira (una que regale, en lugar de licitar ― como dice la teoría económica neoclásica ―, las cuotas pesqueras), o una comisión de Minería del Senado que termine despachando una ley de royalty gatopardista.
Aquí queda esbozado el problema del royalty. En nuestras próximas ediciones aparecerá la continuación de este completo análisis de José Gabriel Palma. ¡No se lo pierda!
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