La invasión de Ucrania difiere de acciones rusas anteriores de modo cualitativo y cuantitativo, aunque está dentro de un patrón de intervención en conflictos de exrepúblicas soviéticas, que ha tenido Rusia desde el colapso de la URSS. Hoy, Rusia invade todo el territorio de una nación soberana y no una porción de ella. No habíamos visto una invasión militar como esta en mucho tiempo.
Por A.C. Mercado-Harvey
Hace una semana que comenzó el mayor conflicto bélico que ha visto Europa desde 1945, cuando terminó la Segunda Guerra Mundial. No solo a nivel de uso de tropas y combate, sino también a nivel comunicacional, cibernético y, también, porque podría culminar en una conflagración nuclear. Esa que podría terminar con la vida en nuestro planeta.
En medio de una crisis de tal magnitud, tuve la oportunidad de entrevistar a la profesora titular de Ciencias Políticas de New College of Florida en los Estados Unidos, Dra. Barbara Hicks. Barbara es decana de la Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y especialista en Europa del Este.
En una charla que dio el día lunes pasado para la comunidad universitaria y de la ciudad de Sarasota, Florida, señaló primero, que esta fue inequívocamente la invasión de una nación soberana a otra, sin provocación militar anterior o embargo económico de ningún tipo que pudiese justificarla. Los hechos son esos, dice, aunque se puede hablar de la perspectiva rusa. La profesora explica que hay una historia distorsionada de aspiraciones imperiales, el énfasis está en el poder de Rusia y devolver ese estatus a Rusia. Hay alegatos de un cerco por parte de la OTAN, pero nada de esto es nuevo, sino que lleva mucho tiempo, por lo menos unos quince años.
Sin embargo, esta invasión difiere de acciones rusas anteriores de modo cualitativo y cuantitativo, aunque está dentro de un patrón de intervención en conflictos de exrepúblicas soviéticas, que ha tenido Rusia desde el colapso de la URSS. Este patrón ha sido de intervención, garantizador de paz en conflictos, etc. Por ejemplo, está el caso de Moldavia, país del que Rusia tomó un tercio de su territorio; lo mismo hizo en el caso de Georgia; o el papel que jugó en el conflicto entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán. Tras el debilitamiento de Rusia pos colapso de la URSS, esto le permite controlar los conflictos internos de estas naciones. Hoy, en cambio, Rusia protagoniza no solo una intervención sino que invade todo el territorio de una nación soberana y no una porción de ella. No habíamos visto una invasión militar como esta en mucho tiempo, ni siquiera en la guerra de la ex Yugoslavia.
Entonces, la pregunta que cabe es ¿por qué una medida tan drástica en Ucrania? Desde la perspectiva de Putin, el primer móvil es su gran competencia de poder con Occidente, particularmente con la OTAN y la búsqueda de restablecimiento de Rusia como un gran poder. La anexión de Crimea, región ucraniana en el mar Negro, ocurrió en 2014 después de las protestas de Euromaidan, que hicieron caer a un gobierno pro ruso que decidió cancelar una negociación que llevaba por mucho tiempo con la Unión Europea. Entonces, comienza una escalada. En el intertanto, es importante señalar que Ucrania ha tenido dos gobiernos democráticamente electos, de partidos diferentes, pero ninguno pro ruso. La anexión de Crimea fue un pretexto para luego apoyar esta rebelión en el Donbás, también litoral del mar Negro, en la frontera con Rusia.
Ucrania y Georgia expresaron su deseo de unirse a la OTAN hace mucho, pero nunca se ha concretado. Después de la anexión de Crimea ocurre un cambio en la opinión pública de Ucrania que no había demostrado mayor inclinación por entrar a la OTAN. En el último consejo de la OTAN, se abordó el eventual ingreso de Georgia y Ucrania a la organización, pero sin que se definiera un plan de acción para concretar la membresía. Sin embargo, desde el punto de vista ruso esto fue una provocación, un ataque de la OTAN, un cerco. La segunda perspectiva de Putin es histórica y consiste en el restablecimiento de todas las Rusias, lo que es una referencia al Imperio Ruso. En su propaganda, Putin ha afirmado que Rusia, Bielorrusia y Ucrania deben ser todas una y cada vez más sus referencias históricas ya no están en la URSS, sino en el Imperio Ruso de los zares. Por eso ha reestablecido su relación con la Iglesia. Una de las preguntas que ha surgido en la prensa es si Putin se volvió loco. La Dra. Hicks señala que no, que no ha perdido noción de la realidad, pero que sí calculó mal. ¿Por qué? Porque escaló un patrón que hasta ahora había sido exitoso. El discurso que dio sobre el Imperio Ruso es algo que ha ido desarrollando por años en su intento de controlar la narrativa histórica rusa, apoyada en una maquinaria de propaganda. Una posible explicación para ello es que en los últimos dos años ha eliminado cualquier oposición, se ha aislado institucionalmente y eso le permite escuchar solo sus pensamientos.
¿Qué tanto calculó mal? Bueno, tuvo éxito en unir a Occidente, lo que era impensado hace un par de años; sanciones económicas draconianas; la OTAN está más involucrada en Ucrania y dispuesta a dejar que entre, si sobrevive a esta invasión; Finlandia y Suecia han hablado de entrar a la OTAN, sobretodo Finlandia que tiene una enorme frontera con Rusia. China, por otro lado, no va a arriesgarse por Rusia, sobretodo cuando ve las sanciones que está aplicando Occidente. Además, hay reportes de protestas en Rusia contra la invasión, que Putin no esperaba. Y sobre la amenaza nuclear, no hay ningún reporte de inteligencia que hable de que se han tomado los pasos que podrían llevar a un ataque de este tipo.
¿Qué errores cometió Occidente? La falta de respuesta a la anexión de Crimea. Entonces, Putin se sintió empoderado y vio la debilidad del Oeste. Ahora, en esta invasión si Putin logra ganar y poner un gobierno títere en Ucrania, no va a lograr mantener el control porque habrá insurgencia. ¿Hay soluciones posibles? Una de las cosas que ha sido propuesta es la “finlandización”. Esto viene de la Segunda Guerra Mundial cuando Finlandia tuvo que hacerse neutral y eso significó tener gobiernos amigables a la URSS, no necesariamente comunistas, pero tampoco contrarios a la URSS.
Tras la charla aquí transcrita, El Regionalista tuvo la oportunidad de hacerle preguntas específicas a la Dra. Hicks:
¿Qué ha pasado en el Donbás desde 2014?
Lo que pasó fue un quiebre de largo plazo de ucranianos pro rusos en 2014, hubo movilización entre ellos e instigación de los rusos. Hay evidencia de rusos que cruzaron la frontera, sin insignia. Los combatientes deben llevarla, según la Convención de Ginebra. Parte del problema fue una rebelión, pero incluso ahí está la pregunta de cuánto fue fomentada por Rusia. Entonces, el ejército ucraniano entró y comienza una guerra que lleva 8 años, una guerra de baja intensidad, pero continua, con víctimas. Dentro de ese contexto ocurrió el derribamiento del vuelo de Malasia Airlines. La investigación terminó inconclusa, pero la mayor parte de la evidencia apunta a que fue un misil ruso que dispararon los rebeldes rusos que peleaban contra el ejército ucraniano. La frontera de ese territorio no corresponde a lo que Rusia llama las repúblicas de Donetsk y Lugansk, que no lo son, y que no incluyen el territorio completo. Por tanto, ha habido combate y han muerto civiles y militares, algunos de ellos son rusos ucranianos. Una de las cosas que hizo Rusia fue darle pasaportes rusos a esos habitantes con el propósito de declarar que ciudadanos rusos estaban siendo asesinados y así poder argumentar que había un genocidio, pero hay información independientemente confirmada que señala que ha sido combate entre milicias y el ejército, con daño colateral de civiles; no el ejército ucraniano conduciendo purgas o cosas por el estilo. No hay base factual para afirmar genocidio.
¿En este contexto qué credibilidad tienen los reclamos de presencia de neonazis en Ucrania?
Esto es parte de la manipulación de Putin de la larga narrativa histórica y no tiene base en algo real, que yo sepa. Me parece que esto se genera por las protestas del Euromaidan, las que derrocaron a Viktor Yanucovich (2010-14). Una vez que intentó envenenar a su opositor Yuschenko, eso dio inicio a la Revolución Naranja. Yanucovich volvió al poder por la fragmentación política y su base política era más pro rusa en esa época. Volvió por medio del fraude y la corrupción. Cuando vuelve al poder firmó un acuerdo de asociación con la UE y hasta ese momento la UE no había demostrado ningún interés en expandirse e integrar a otros países. En este caso la asociación consistía en un acuerdo comercial favorable y es el primer paso para integrarse la UE. Esto fue negociado por mucho tiempo, Yanucovich estaba a punto de firmarlo cuando recibió el mensaje de Moscú de no hacerlo, cambió de opinión y ello desató las protestas del Euromaidan. Estas protestas fueron manifestaciones pacíficas, dentro de ellas hubo ocasionalmente grupos de derecha, un par de esos grupos podrían ser calificados como neonazi. La referencia es histórica, ya que hubo una oposición ucraniana (OUN) durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial, que eran nacionalistas ucranianos y antisoviéticos, parte de ese grupo colaboró con Alemania en la resistencia contra la URSS. Eso origina que los rusos los llamen nazis. Putin utiliza el término banderovci en sus discursos, porque el líder de la organización era Stepan Bandera. Debido a la terrible pérdida de memoria histórica, uno de los institutos ucranianos le rindió homenaje a Stepan Bandera por su patriotismo. De este modo, hay una evocación de aquello con el uso del término banderovci. Este grupo no tiene absolutamente nada que ver con el régimen ucraniano actual.
¿Cuál es la afiliación política de Zelensky?
Ninguna, en parte por eso sacó el 70% de la votación. Era el candidato que se presentó como alternativa a los políticos tradicionales. Es absolutamente equivocado llamarlo nazi porque perdió a dos abuelos víctimas del nazismo, por ambos lados.
¿Pero hubo una coalición que lo apoyó que fuera de izquierda, centro o derecha?
Lo interesante es que en términos del electorado recibió votos de todo el espectro político. Polyachenko, el presidente anterior, que fue electo después del Euromaidan, fue bastante efectivo, con un lineamiento más capitalista, más occidental. El atractivo de Zelensky es no ser político y le ganó a Polyachenko, con varios grupos que lo querían fuera del poder, pero no es posible conectarlo a grupos neonazis.
¿Pero tiene algún lineamiento que sea más de derecha, centro o izquierda?
No tengo una idea muy clara al respecto. Una colega académica, que es ucraniana, diría que no es muy serio y que ha sido ineficiente en ciertas áreas. Sus lineamientos han sido pro occidentales, más que de una ideología típicamente de derecha, centro o izquierda. Por ejemplo, quería armas defensivas y Trump se las negó, entonces no tiene un lineamiento de derecha occidental. Lo único que se puede decir es que es de una orientación occidental, pero eso no se puede ligar al neonazismo. Si le buscamos algún aspecto negativo, hay gente que diría que no ha sido tan efectivo como su predecesor en su manejo de la economía y en mantener la corrupción bajo control, que fue una de sus promesas de campaña. Su base electoral, con la que llegó al poder, es bien de centro y los cuestionamientos sobre él son más sobre si ha sido un presidente eficiente. Sospecho que, por venir de fuera, del mundo del entretenimiento, no tenía las conexiones, ni el círculo político entre los ricos, los oligarcas y otros para ser lo eficaz que fue Polyachenko. Eso lo ha hecho perder popularidad, pero tiene mucho apoyo. Lo interesante es que Polyachenko también está en Kiev en la calle peleando. La actitud de la gente en relación a Zelensky era ver si se iba a quedar, si iba a estar a la altura de las circunstancias y hasta ahora lo ha hecho. Por eso, se ha convertido en un símbolo de la lucha contra Rusia, que según reportes internacionales está atacando con bombas de racimo, y otros armamentos prohibidos. Es difícil saber cuánto tiempo los ucranianos podrán resistir ese tipo de ataques. Europa y Estados Unidos están enviando solo armamento defensivo porque no querían provocar a Rusia.
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