En su análisis, Edison nos pasea por los aciertos y errores en los primeros 100 días de la administración de los exdirigentes estudiantiles de 2011. El trío Boric, Jackson, Vallejo, encabezan el gobierno y, como mini equipo gubernamental, han ido de menos a más. Partieron con muchos errores – incluida la designación de Siches como jefa de gabinete y algunas otros nombramientos ministeriales -, pero han logrado cierto control de la agenda y, en apenas una década, lograron tomarse el poder institucional, lo que a Aylwin, a Allende, a Frei Montalva o al propio Lagos, les costó décadas alcanzar.
Edison Ortiz
Racconto
Hace exactamente once años, en 2011, quienes son los nuevos inquilinos de palacio – me refiero en especial a Camila Vallejo, Giorgio Jackson y Gabriel Boric – marchaban junto a una pléyade de nuevos dirigentes estudiantiles. Tanto en Santiago como en el resto del país, movilizaban a millones de chilen@s, particularmente estudiantes, padres y abuelos, con eslogans que harían historia: “No al lucro”, “nueva Constitución” o “una educación pública, gratuita y de calidad”. Con ello, removieron la conciencia nacional y abortaron la nueva “revolución gerencial”, que ofrecía el empresario y presidente de Chile, Sebastián Piñera. Cayeron, sucesivamente, sus ministros de Educación: primero, Joaquín Lavín; le siguió Felipe Bulnes y después Harald Bayer. La última, Carolina Schmidt, no lo hizo solo porque el gobierno de Piñera se había acabado en agosto de 2011 y, en ese contexto, la ministra prefirió no hacer nada y no correr ningún riesgo.
Incluso, durante el invierno de aquel año, no pocos especularon que la administración Piñera también pudo haberse ido a pique, tal cual como le sucedería en octubre de 2019. Lo dijo el propio Luis Larraín en Emol, en septiembre de ese año: “con el movimiento estudiantil algunos se entusiasmaron y pidieron una suerte de rendición incondicional del gobierno: nacionalización de nuestras riquezas básicas; plebiscito para dirimir diferencias en materia educacional, reforma constitucional, asamblea constituyente y otras linduras por el estilo”.
Quienes encabezaron esa protesta estudiantil, once años después, ya no marchan contra el palacio, sino que lo ocupan y gestionan. Para mala suerte de Luis Larraín, varias de las cosas con las que él ironizó, en esa carta a El Mercurio del 17 de septiembre de 2011, están a punto de cobrar realidad en la nueva Constitución – como el concepto de un nuevo estado social de derechos -, cuyo texto definitivo conoceremos el próximo 4 de julio y votaremos el 4 de septiembre.
Volviendo al presente: el primer gabinete de Gabriel Boric: entre la irrelevancia y la ausencia
El trío Boric, Jackson, Vallejo, encabezan el gobierno y, como mini equipo gubernamental, han ido de menos a más. Partieron con muchos errores – incluida la designación de Siches como jefa de gabinete y algunas otros nombramientos ministeriales -, pero han logrado cierto control de la agenda y, en apenas una década, lograron tomarse el poder institucional, lo que a Aylwin, a Allende, a Frei Montalva o al propio Lagos, les costó décadas alcanzar. Con un poco de arrogancia en la gestión gubernamental, donde es regla de oro que no se viene a aprender, como ha sucedido en varias ocasiones con la ministra del Interior y algunos otros miembros del elenco gubernamental. Además, con una pésima instalación en regiones, donde los desaguisados estuvieron a la orden del día y no paran.
La figura presidencial, luce cuando se trata de anuncios, discursos y ofertas programáticas – la última fue su primera cuenta pública –, pero tambalea cuando se trata de operativizar esos conceptos en la gestión gubernamental, donde no alcanza ni siquiera a entusiasmar. Así le ha sucedido con la prometida reforma al sistema de pensiones y tributaria, que hasta hoy no se conocen, y donde las designaciones en esas áreas clave han emitido más bien señales confusas, como sucedió con el subsecretario de pensiones, Cristián Larraín, Solange Bernstein en la CMF, Máximo Pacheco en Codelco, la permanencia de Osvaldo Macías en la superintendencia de pensiones, por nombrar algunas de las designaciones más polémicas versus lo ofrecido en campaña.
También, en un contexto en que Piñera, después de Cúcuta, dejó las relaciones internacionales de Chile en un plano deplorable, era de esperar la designación de un peso pesado en Cancillería, pero no sucedió así. La presencia de la ministra Antonia Urrejola ha sido, también, bastante irrelevante, en una designación donde Chile, históricamente, ha tenido muy buenas figuras, con mucho dominio y reconocimiento en el mundo del multilateralismo. No desempeñó ningún papel relevante en la visita a Argentina, donde hubo varios desaguisados que no se filtraron a la prensa. Ha estado toda la discusión en torno a la cumbre de Las Américas, en la cual hubo amenazas de boicot y se instaló la percepción que: “La Cumbre de las Américas es un papelón internacional, no tiene sentido y EE.UU. no tiene nada para ofrecer”. Especialistas, como Pedro Brieger, han resaltado la inutilidad del evento, manifestando que el encuentro Biden-Boric será: “un apretón de manos [que] sirve desde el punto de vista publicitario, político. Pero no hay mucho más que eso”.
Otra cartera con serios déficits es Defensa, en la que se designó a una socialista con una familia con mucha historia en la colectividad, como lo es Maya Fernández, quien se suma a los secretarios de estado que se han observado muy irrelevantes y con perfiles demasiado opacos para sus carteras. En especial, en un momento tan complejo como la pérdida del sentido de autoridad, una cierta demanda social por restituir mínimos niveles de orden y donde es clave la coordinación con las fuerzas armadas y de orden, en particular. Por el contrario, lo poco que se ha sabido de Maya Fernández es que fue asaltada en su propia casa en la comuna de Ñuñoa.
En esa lógica no puede no dejar de mencionarse, además, una pronta designación de un nuevo ministro de Justicia. Está claro que la socióloga Marcela Ríos tampoco ha estado a la altura de la coordinación con policías, tribunales y gendarmería espacios públicos, donde se requieren abogados con mucha experiencia y bastante oficio en esas redes de poder, para fortalecer la buena y necesaria colaboración de estas instituciones en la sensación térmica de orden y autoridad que debe ofrecer un buen gobierno.
Si el presidente Boric quiere comenzar a dar un giro en su gestión y contribuir a generar un escenario favorable al gobierno y, por ende, a la opción del Apruebo, se hace necesario cambiar en estas cuatro carteras, fundamentales para el manejo del gobierno y su relación con la percepción de orden y normalidad en un país. Por lo demás, queda en evidencia que la gestión gubernamental no debe estar vinculada, necesariamente, a los temas de equidad de género, en uno u otro sentido.
Economía: el área clave para un buen resultado en el plebiscito de salida
Cuando Marcel fue designado ministro de Hacienda recibió un espaldarazo de respaldo por parte del gran empresariado. Si bien la nominación en esa cartera del hombre cercano al PS marcó una decepción de algunos de sus adherentes, respecto de lo ofrecido en campaña, diversos economistas señalan que, en algunos temas, ha estado bastante bien como la entrega de subsidios, ayudas y la rápida negociación con el sindicalismo por el sueldo mínimo, pero, a la vez, sostienen, que le faltan más decibeles en su actuación, ya que los aportes entregados son insuficientes, de cara al plebiscito. En tal escenario, se prevé que llegaremos con una alta inflación y pérdida sostenida del empleo por sobre dos dígitos, lo cual es pérdida segura del gobierno. Si bien en Chile dichas cifras podrían extenderse a un 15% al momento de votarse la próxima Constitución, estaremos al borde de que ese aforismo se pueda cumplir el 4 de septiembre.
Por ello, se sostiene que resultará fundamental la pronta y rápida intervención de Boric sobre la gestión del ministro de Hacienda. A menos que se cumpla la profecía chilensis de que los ministros de Hacienda viven asustando al presidente. Lo hizo Velasco con Bachelet, situación que se repitió con Alberto Arenas e Eyzaguirre que, entre otras cosas, terminaron por paralizar la gestión de cambio de Bachelet Dos. Tanto Aylwin como Lagos tenían la costumbre de escuchar otras voces, si se trataba de escenarios y medidas económicas que tomar. Mario Marcel funciona bien con un liderazgo presidencial fuerte y orientador, pero con mandatarios débiles e inexpertos tiende a creer en su propia ortodoxia neoliberal y en el relato, ya cansador, de una hipotética responsabilidad fiscal.
En un gobierno donde en sus diversas áreas, – reformas sociales, vivienda, salud, educación, empleo, etc.-, casi no hay nada que mostrar o exhibir, salvo anuncios y cuñas, es fundamental que el mandatario y el dúo que lo acompaña – Jackson y Vallejo – intervengan las tres áreas claves del poder regalista del estado: la jefatura de gabinete y el ministerio de Justicia, y mejorar así la relación con policías, tribunales y gendarmería. Así también con la Cancillería y Defensa, de manera de dar un segundo aire a un gobierno que, tras cien días, no tiene mucho que mostrar. Además, que, con los peores efectos de las medidas tomadas en marzo por el banco central, enfrentará en un escenario muy difícil la aprobación de la nueva Constitución. Lo anterior requerirá, un mayor despliegue de Mario Marcel, tomando y ofreciendo medidas que sean sentidas por el grueso de la ciudadanía. En tal panorama, un quinto retiro podría ser una buena medida a auspiciar, en un contexto donde los diversos fondos de AFP siguen perdiendo, mientras en mayo los dueños de AFP repartieron utilidades por más de dos mil millones de dólares o el equivalente a $ 277.247.388.942 de pesos. No hacer nada grande antes del plebiscito, como se suele decir, le puede costar caro a esta generación.
Epilogo: entre pasar a la historia o ser los responsables de una nueva regresión autoritaria
Luego de una década de su irrupción como nueva generación política, el trio Boric-Vallejo-Jackson está en un momento histórico: gobiernan La Moneda, disponen de una buena retórica, a la cual no siempre acompaña una gestión ad hoc, cuya capacidad de movilización se pondrá a prueba el próximo 4 de septiembre cuando votemos la nueva Constitución.
De aprobarse la nueva carta magna esta generación que en solo diez años fue capaz de alcanzar el gobierno, dejará su impronta en la historia de Chile. No solo la habrán hecho de nuevo, sino que, bajo su mandato, le entregarán por primera vez una Constitución discutida y conversada entre todos los chilenos, que va por la senda de cambiar el modelo neoliberal, impuesto a sangre y fuego. De lo contrario, podrán ser los responsables de que, por primera vez en democracia, iniciemos otro ciclo autoritario que nunca deja nada bueno en nuestra impronta social.
392 comentarios en “Los primeros cien días de Boric: entre pasar a la historia o morir en el intento”
El análisis me parece acertado en cuanto a los errores no forzados del inicio del juego . Pero, yo esperaría más tiempo para juzgar, porque me parece corto el período que se analiza, dada la crítica situación que se heredó de Piñera y de la Concertación, que dejaron flancos que se autogeneran y multiplican , como es el caso del crimen organizado con fuerte influencia internacional que , para más, se ha beneficiado del fenómeno migratorio. Crimen organizado que apadrina todo el fenómeno de la mini delincuencia, el robo a chorro, la venta de droga, la encerrona. Eso, en un contexto de creciente violencia transversal a la sociedad que genera la popularidad de la solución violenta individual.
El dilema que afecta al gobierno actual es el de calmar las aguas de los poderes establecidos para poder emprender los cambios. En ese esfuerzo, se balancea en un débil equilibrio entre «arar con los bueyes que hay», es decir, la Constitución de Pinochet que dejó su impronta en las instituciones que conforman el Estado , mientras da un nuevo respiro la nueva, y consigue ingresar las dos reformas básicas . Este esfuerzo lo amenaza con perder base en su fuerza propia, que espera del gobierno más de lo que éste puede dar en el período inmediato.
No coincido conque Marcel sea un neoliberal. Yo creo que es un socialista de viejo cuño en su inspiración, que está haciendo un empeño difícil, con un presupuesto reducido en un 20% con relación al del 2021, en una circunstancia de inflación provocada por la situación internacional y agravada por la situación interna en que el dinero superó como mercancía a cualquier producto necesario para la vida, a lo que se agrega la impunidad de la especulación. Por esto, creo que es temprano para juzgarlo.
Hernán, gracias por tu análisis enriquece la columna, abrazos
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