Es difícil determinar cuál o cuáles son los factores que determinan la participación electoral, puesto que en el último tiempo se ha vislumbrado una diferencia importante entre elecciones municipales y presidenciales; sin embargo, es un hecho que en los últimos años hay una tendencia a aumentar la participación y con ello, a tomar conciencia sobre la importancia de hacerse parte de los procesos de decisión política y electoral.
Paulina Caroca y Matías Palma[1]
En Chile, siempre ha sido objeto de interés entender qué factores influyen en la participación ciudadana: por ello existe una vasta bibliografía y diversos trabajos de investigación académica respecto a este tópico. Sin embargo, en el último tiempo se ha acentuado este interés, entendiendo que, desde el año 2012, el voto en Chile se volvió voluntario, y la academia indica que, conforme a la evidencia empírica, donde el voto sea voluntario, no necesariamente la participación electoral aumentará (de hecho, la tendencia es que disminuya). ¿Pero será esta la situación de Chile también? ¿O es ahora cuando la ciudadanía chilena, teniendo la posibilidad de asistir voluntariamente a sufragar, participa más? Y, a propósito, ¿de qué depende la participación electoral? Se ha evidenciado que son cuatro elementos los que inciden en la participación ciudadana, y estos corresponden a la edad, el género, la educación, los ingresos y los niveles de pobreza: a nivel local, se estudia el comportamiento de la participación ciudadana en cinco comunas de la Región Metropolitana (Las Condes, San Bernardo, Maipú, Providencia y Puente Alto) durante las elecciones primarias de 2021. Pero, de estos cuatro factores, nos detendremos un momento en la educación y en las condiciones socioeconómicas. La tendencia del abstencionismo en las elecciones responde a dos factores interrelacionados entre sí: a mayor pobreza, menor participación, mientras que, ante la existencia de menor pobreza multidimensional, existe una alta tasa de participación electoral, generando con ello una desigualdad en la toma de decisiones a nivel cívico. Y si entendemos que la pobreza multidimensional incluye dentro de sí, entre otras cosas, el acceso de la población a mayores años de escolarización (es decir, más allá de los 12 años obligatorios entre enseñanza básica y media), la tendencia de las elecciones primarias del 2021 tendría que obedecer a dos supuestos: en primer lugar, y dada la tendencia de los países con voto voluntario, la totalidad de la población inscrita para sufragar no participa en las votaciones, sino que una parte de ella lo hace; y por otro lado, si existe mayor escolarización en las comunas revisadas, la participación tendrá que ir al aumento, mientras que si existe menos escolarización, la participación será menor.
Ahora bien, efectuando un cruce de información entre las estadísticas del CENSO del año 2017 (para analizar los datos educacionales por comuna) versus los datos de participación electoral del Servicio Electoral para el año 2021, se obtiene que quienes más participaron en las elecciones de 2021 fueron los sectores con mayor escolaridad, mientras que quienes se abstuvieron de participar, fueron aquellos sectores etarios con menor instrucción.
¿Quedan desafíos pendientes? Evidentemente. Por ejemplo, propender a la creación de una política pública efectiva que garantice de manera definitiva y permanente, una formación cívica para la juventud y la niñez, que instruya y eduque desde la infancia a niños y niñas para involucrarse activamente en la toma de decisiones, de acuerdo a lo que implica desenvolverse en un entorno democrático. Y, por otro lado, correspondiendo también a un objetivo más ambicioso, se debe garantizar el acceso a la educación en los sectores con menor instrucción, para que las decisiones que se tomen a futuro, involucren a un mayor número de participantes, volviendo las decisiones más equitativas e integradoras.
Por otra parte, pero siguiendo el análisis anterior, sin duda que la edad o el rango etario representa un fenómeno importante a estudiar, principalmente por lo que muchos estudios han denominado el factor “apatía juvenil”, vinculado a los niveles de participación. Ahora bien, si concentramos nuestro análisis en las cifras del estudio (Caroca, Palma, Canessa, 2022), efectuado por los estudiantes del Magister en Gerencia y Políticas Públicas de la Universidad de Santiago, es posible dilucidar aspectos interesantes vinculados a la edad, entre las elecciones municipales de 2016 y las del 2021. En ese estudio, se determinó como pregunta específica de investigación si el rango etario es un factor determinante en los niveles de participación electoral, y pareciera ser una premisa cierta, al menos en los datos duros comparativos. Veamos algunos aspectos interesantes de revisar al respecto.
Al comparar los datos de participación electoral de las municipales de los años 2016 y 2021, es posible visualizar que, las cifras globales en las comunas foco del estudio: Las Condes, Maipú, Providencia, San Bernardo y Puente Alto, la evidencia empírica demuestra que se produce un aumento en términos globales de los niveles de participación. En Las Condes, los mayores aumentos en los niveles de participación comparativamente, se producen en los tramos de edad entre los 25 y 39 años, donde la participación global en la comuna aumenta un 67% el 2021, respecto de 2016. En el caso de la comuna Maipú, la situación es mucho más marcada aún en los niveles de participación, donde el factor edad se amplía y estratifica aún más y, en consecuencia, manifiesta un importante aumento en los niveles de participación entre los 18 y 44 años de edad, presentando, además, un aumento del 90% en la votación 2021, respecto del 2016. En el caso de la comuna de Providencia, en el estudio se presentan menores aumentos en los niveles de participación, quedando solo en un 41% en el 2021, respecto de 2016, donde los mayores aumentos se reflejan en el tramo de edad entre 25 y 39 años, y una disminución en los niveles de participación entre los mayores de 80 años. En el caso de Puente Alto, donde el padrón de votantes es el más grande del país, se ve un importante aumento en los niveles de participación, siendo la comuna que más sube de las que se encuentran en el foco del mencionado estudio, con un 104% de aumento en el 2021 en relación al 2016. Respecto de San Bernardo, se da la misma tendencia que en Puente Alto y Maipú, donde los mayores aumentos en los niveles de participación, comparando las municipales 2016 y 2021, se manifiestan en los tramos de edad entre los 18 y 39 años. Sin embargo, en esta última comuna se visualiza una disminución en la participación en los tramos de edad de mayores de 80 años.
En este sentido, el estudio es concluyente desde el punto de vista de las cifras en varios aspectos interesantes de destacar. Por ejemplo, en las comunas de mayores ingresos como son Las Condes y Providencia, se presentan menores niveles de participación que en las comunas de menores ingresos, situación que mediáticamente se pensaba era distinta.
Frente a lo anterior es importante mencionar que, en distintos espacios de debate público, se ha puesto en la palestra la problemática que ha significado la baja participación ciudadana, principalmente en instancias referentes a elecciones de representación popular, lo cual ha provocado que en variados análisis los resultados no se consideren del todo representativos. En nuestro país, desde el 2019, se desencadena un estallido social que profundiza y visibiliza la crisis política y social que por años se mantuvo en silencio, este hecho histórico provoca un quiebre en la ciudadanía y eleva a nivel internacional las necesidades que por años se intentó ocultar, con el pretexto de que éramos una economía estable y con un ingreso promedio por sobre los 600 mil pesos, sin considerar las altas concentraciones de poder en pequeños sectores de la sociedad,
En los estudios realizados por la Seremi de Desarrollo Social Metropolitana entre los años 2015 y 2020, respecto del Índice de Prioridad Social (IPS) de las comunas de la Región Metropolitana, se puede ver que comunas como San Bernardo se han desplazado entre una Alta Prioridad Social y Media Alta Prioridad Social y que, en concordancia con la información que posee Servel sobre las Primarias Presidenciales de Abril del 2021, es una de las comunas de la RM con más baja participación ciudadana, con un 19,8% del total del padrón electoral. Así mismo, en comunas como Maipú y Puente Alto, podemos ver que se han desplazado entre niveles de Media Alta Prioridad Social, Media Baja Prioridad Social y Baja Prioridad Social, generándose una tendencia a la baja y que, según los datos de Servel, Maipú y Puente Alto tendrían una participación electoral en abril del 2021 de 28,1% y 23,7% del total del padrón, respectivamente. Esto se puede contrastar con las comunas de Providencia y Las Condes que, según el estudio de la Seremi, ambas comunas se han mantenido en una Baja Prioridad Social y Sin Prioridad Social y que, en comparativa con las votaciones de abril del 2021, según Servel, Providencia y Las Condes han tenido una participación del 37,9% y 44,9% del total de padrón, respectivamente. Además, es importante mencionar que, según estudios de la Universidad Autónoma de Chile, Las comunas de Providencia y Las Condes tienen mayores índices de desarrollo comunal (2020) en comparación con Maipú, Puente Alto y San Bernardo. Por tanto, se puede identificar que, según los datos revisados sobre Índices de Prioridad Social, Índices de Desarrollo Comunal y los datos arrojados por el Servel en las primerias presidenciales, las comunas con mayor desarrollo y menos desventaja socioeconómica que arroja el IPS, son los que mayor porcentaje de participación electoral poseen. Ante los datos entregados es difícil determinar cuál o cuáles son los factores que determinan la participación electoral, puesto que en el último tiempo se ha vislumbrado una diferencia importante entre elecciones municipales y presidenciales; sin embargo, es un hecho que en los últimos años hay una tendencia a aumentar la participación y con ello, a tomar conciencia sobre la importancia de hacerse parte de los procesos de decisión política y electoral.
[1] Alumnos de Magister en Gerencia y Políticas Públicas de la Universidad de Santiago de Chile.
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