El Regionalista les hizo la misma pregunta a diversos analistas políticos sobre el ciclo octubre 2019-2022. Estas fueron las respuestas de Mirco Macari, Carolina Rossetti y Gonzalo Martner.
Edison Ortiz
¿Qué pasó en tres años para que desde una revuelta social hayamos pasado al Rechazo a la nueva Constitución, a la aprobación del TPP11 y con las AFP currando como nunca, mientras nuestros fondos siguen a la pérdida?
Mirko Macari, periodista, retirado de las pistas. Ha decidido abandonar por un tiempo los medios porque hoy existe una “alta toxicidad”. Como Thoreau, se fue a los bosques, y hoy es coterráneo nuestro, radicado en Cáhuil, borde costero de la región de O’Higgins.
Lo que pasó es algo muy simple, y que los viejos marxistas llamaban “la dialéctica”. La dinámica de cómo se está moviendo la energía. Hoy existe una crisis estructural y una debilidad muy profunda en la gobernanza. Quien gobierna ya no tiene el control de la agenda, sino que esta se ha movido hacia otros espacios – la sociedad, la oposición, movimientos, etc. -, quienes controlan y marcan el debate público. La energía está fuera de los gobiernos.
Mira, a la derecha: cómo se pulverizó con Piñera, perdieron la Constitución, la coalición se desmembró y quedó hecha trizas, perdieron las AFP y vinieron los retiros. Por lo anterior, mi pronóstico es que la izquierda se hará pedazos al final del gobierno de Boric. Vivirá su propio vía crucis de aquí al final de esta administración.
Carolina Rossetti, experiodista de programas políticos de televisión, figura de los medios; hoy, también, alejada de las grandes urbes, vive junto a su marido en la zona rural de la comuna de Casablanca, en su pequeña parcela. Este fue el tenor de su respuesta.
Creo que la revuelta social del 2019, que yo llamo estallido social, fue también, el inicio de la banalización de la delincuencia, de la violencia, y es por eso que ahora, el gobierno toma una serie de medidas con el apoyo de Carabineros para detener esa violencia, pero va a ser muy difícil porque en el fondo necesita el apoyo de la derecha que no se contenta con nada, porque sabe que tiene el sartén por el mango. Por eso, Boric está obligado a considerarlos en las políticas como el TPP 11, que él quiere alargar y eso va a tomar dos años. Es posible que la derecha acuse constitucionalmente a la ministra de RR.EE.
Finalmente, quiero señalar que el estallido social fue detenido por el sueño de una buena Constitución, que vendría a solucionar todas las demandas iniciadas. Pero las constituciones son un marco y no una solución. Boric no sabía gobernar y ahora que podría hacerlo no ha aprendido a pararle el carro al populismo de derecha, expresado en la mayoría en el congreso.
Gonzalo Martner, economista, expresidente del PS, manifestó a El Regionalista lo siguiente: Yo creo, profundamente, en la política y aquí la sociedad entró en rebelión, dijo basta por diversas razones, sin convocatoria ni conducción política. Se improvisó una conducción política con un gobierno de Piñera muy perdido, y con una oposición en crisis profunda, luego de 30 años de transición, el sistema político estaba absolutamente desprestigiado, en el suelo. Entonces, la canalización política se hace en una noche, a las 3 de la mañana cuando todo indicaba que a esa hora había que dejar las cosas como estaban y volver al día siguiente a retomar la conversación. Ese acuerdo está lleno de fallas y expresa una falta de lucidez política notable y lo centro en dos temas: el de los 2/3, la derecha y quienes se le subordinan intelectualmente están de acuerdo en eso. No, eso es darle poder de veto a minorías. La derecha en la Convención quedó bajo el 20% y el 1/3 que daba la mayoría era heterogéneo cada cual, con su causa, allí no había defensa de país, sino de causas particulares, a veces, con estilos poco cuidadosos, que le hicieron daño a la Convención. ¿Cuál fue el resultado práctico? El tema del rediseño de muchos temas – institucionalidad, relación medio ambiente economía, etc.- están bien resueltos en la Convención, pero con un agregado retórico innecesario y redundante y eso generó una percepción de amenaza generalizada. Probablemente, los mismos contenidos con un 50% + 1 se habrían podido aprobar, pero era necesario los 2/3 y ahí hubo que recurrir a los grupos de causas particulares que pusieron temas redundantes en el texto y que generaron un cuadro muy grande de rechazos por cosas específicas. Eso radicalizó la propuesta de texto constitucional.
Y lo segundo, lo he estado conversando con amigos, no es idea mía, ¿quién inventó posplebiscitos de entrada, de salida, lo que sea? Ese fue Napoléon III. ¿Quién inventó la democracia? ¿Estados Unidos y la Revolución Francesa? ¿Hubo plebiscitico de salida en la Constitución norteamericana?, ¿lo hubo en la Revolución Francesa? Solo asambleas constituyentes. Ningún plebiscito. Ni en Brasil, ni Colombia, ni Bolivia; solo en Ecuador, donde hicieron una cosa interesante. Tiene que ver con el tema de la representación. No hubo un solo evangélico o católico que votará a favor de la nueva Constitución por el tema del aborto. Entonces, cuando la cosa es binaria basta un tema para producir la discordia. ¿Estos eran los plebiscitos de Pinochet del 88, nos quedó dando vueltas eso en el imaginario? Por eso me pregunto: ¿tiene sentido?
Yo soy bastante específico sobre la aprobación de una nueva Constitución, habrá suficientes detractores para rechazarla en uno u otro sentido. No hay que poner tanto tema en la redacción, sino que, luego, sean motivos específicos de una ley que quede a cargo de cada legislatura, con una institucionalidad robusta.
Yo creo que el gobierno debería ir pensando. Creo que vamos a ir llegando a una situación de hecho. Tiene mucho más sentido que el presidente Boric avance en sus reformas, donde no hay ningún impedimento en la previsional, podría haber alguna dificultad en el royalty, tampoco en la reforma de salud. Si alguna recomendación le haría al gobierno, es que avance en sus reformas.
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