Por Rolando Cárdenas
Las buenas noticias
La economía ha sido el principal soporte de este gobierno, quizás no guste a muchos de sus partidarios, pero la continuidad de políticas responsables fiscalmente, que se rompieron en el segundo gobierno de Piñera, llevadas a cabo por los gestores de los ahora muy buenos 30 años, han permitido poco a poco salir de la crisis que nos afecta.
La aseguradora Fitch Ratings mantuvo la clasificación crediticia de Chile con una perspectiva estable, lo que significa que se revisará hasta un año más. Fitch indicó en su informe: “Las calificaciones de Chile están respaldadas por un balance soberano relativamente sólido, una deuda pública/PIB muy por debajo de sus pares, sólidos indicadores de gobernanza y un historial de políticas macroeconómicas creíbles, centradas en un régimen de metas de inflación y un tipo de cambio flexible”. Le dio valor al royalty minero y la búsqueda de un pacto fiscal que dé mayor certeza a los inversionistas.
Las principales consultoras en el área económica también ven un mejor escenario, más atractivo y con menos riesgos, lo que se aprecia de manera práctica con la recuperación bursátil, que por primera vez superó el 12 de julio la barrera de los 6.000 puntos.
Y desde el punto de vista político la panorámica actual indica dos cosas, primero, que el voto obligatorio trae una importante masa de votantes de perfil más conservador y segundo, que las derrotas políticas han dado al gobierno mayor realismo al momento de proponer sus reformas.
En el ámbito empresarial, el Tribunal Constitucional no consideró él téngase presente de la Confederación de la Producción y el Comercio, la patronal de los empresarios, para la ley de delitos económicos y tal como dijo el ministro Cordero, solo les provoco daño reputacional. Ahora su presidente Ricardo Mewes está solicitando espacios de diálogo para poder incorporar “mejoras” a la ley.
La derecha atrapada en sus pulsiones
Los republicanos decidieron olvidarse de la moderación y presentaron más de cuatrocientas indicaciones al texto constitucional, plasmando en ellas todo su arsenal ideológico, conservador en lo moral y neoliberal en lo económico.
Y como los partidos de Chile Vamos perdieron su fuerza electoral, han terminado por concordar cuatro temas que terminan consolidando los modelos de salud, previsión y educación, es decir seguimos con isapres y afp, y el cuarto tema acordado es dedicar un capítulo especial en la constitución a las FF.AA., transformándolas de facto en un poder independiente. Son temas que, precisamente, han madurado en el sistema político y económico del último medio siglo, de la mano de la actual constitución
Además, insistirán en una paridad acotada y prohibir el aborto en tres causales, entre otras propuestas.
En definitiva, se ve cada vez más próximo el rechazo en el plebiscito de diciembre, que ya en algunas encuestas marca el 51% de apoyo.
Algunos analistas ya indican que la lógica de los republicanos es tener un gran focus group pagado por el Estado para conocer la reacción masiva de la ciudadanía a sus postulados. Además, si gana el rechazo, seguirá la constitución de Pinochet que es lo siempre han querido. Es decir, en cualquier escenario siempre ganan.
Junto a lo anterior, los votos que obtenga la opción a favor de la nueva constitución, serán votos que adhieren plenamente a los postulados republicanos y esa será la base electoral para su campaña presidencial.
El error del ministro Jackson
La gira presidencial había tenido el mérito de relegar a un segundo plano el caso fundaciones, y todos decíamos que ya se empieza a notar la mano de la última contratación de la Secretaría de Comunicaciones del gobierno, el periodista Juan Carvajal.
Pero bastó un robo en dependencias del Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, 23 computadores (ya recuperados) y una caja de fondos, con el típico “cuento del tío”, y el ministro Jackson, la cara principal del caso fundaciones, de acuerdo a las encuestas, no halla nada mejor que insinuar que el delito podría ser una operación en su contra.
Transformó el hecho delictual en un hecho político, y volvió a colocar en el centro de la agenda el caso fundaciones, ya que en la caja fuerte estarían los documentos de las investigaciones que involucran los contratos del ministerio con algunas de estas instituciones.
Hay que reconocer además que la vocera Vallejo también sale a primera hora respaldando la tesis de Jackson, y recién al mediodía el ministro del Interior subrogante, Manuel Monsalve precisa lo obvio: este es un delito y las instituciones están funcionando y con resultados. Pero ya era tarde.
Los matinales se centraron en el robo al igual que los noticieros y todo se mira como una operación política de uno u otro lado.
La oposición y algunos oficialistas han salido a pedir la renuncia del ministro, de hecho, la UDI condicionó el diálogo con el gobierno a la renuncia de Jackson; como es lógico, esto sólo afirma al ministro ya que el presidente no puede dejarse pautear.
¿Jugando en las ligas mayores?
Que el mapa geopolítico está moviéndose no hay duda. Con la disputa entre EE.UU. y China como telón de fondo y la intención de la Unión Europea (UE) de recuperar un espacio de influencia después de verificar de manera bien dramática cómo en África, donde China tiene el control, no son bienvenidos, la cumbre de la Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, CELAC y la UE era relevante. Y nuestro presidente jugó una carta arriesgada al pretender una condena explícita a Rusia por la invasión a Ucrania, sabiendo que Rusia además de China han llevado adelante una política de colaboración e inversiones en muchos países del CELAC además que Brasil es parte del BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China), por lo que no se pudo lograr, además de sufrir el ninguneo de Lula.
La pregunta entonces es, si esto fue simplemente un error o hay una decisión estratégica de optar por una relación más estrecha con la UE y EE.UU. Recordemos que en una de sus intervenciones, el presidente Boric reconoció que el principal socio comercial de Chile es China, pero que el país debe buscar ampliar el abanico de esas relaciones comerciales.
Los países pequeños como el nuestro deben jugar sus piezas con mucha delicadeza, más aún cuando existen recursos naturales claves para las nuevas tecnologías y el combate al cambio climático.
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