Finalmente, la crisis observada en su desarrollo las últimas semanas acabó de la peor manera: en un enfrentamiento abierto desatado con la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia. ¿Era posible una alternativa distinta, que evitara un escenario que nadie en Europa deseaba imaginar? Aparentemente no.
Por Patricio Escobar
La actual situación de enfrentamiento armado en que ha derivado el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania, poco tiene que ver con la personalidad de Vladimir Putin o el carácter de su gobierno, que ciertamente es de un marcado nacionalismo conservador, aunque sin estar más al extremo de otros gobiernos de ese signo en Europa durante los últimos años. Esta crisis es resultado de una suma de variables e intereses que, lenta e inexorablemente, fueron conduciendo a este desenlace.
El equilibrio estratégico de la Guerra Fría
La razón por la que una guerra nuclear entre las grandes potencias no se produjo durante la llamada Guerra Fría, se conoce como “destrucción mutua asegurada”. Esto significa que, si una superpotencia atacaba a la otra con armas nucleares, inevitablemente la atacada podía responder del mismo modo, puesto que el tiempo que tardaban los misiles en volar desde USA a la URSS y en dirección opuesta, era de cerca de 25 minutos, mientras que el tiempo de respuesta de quien detectaba la amenaza era de 5 minutos.
Con la instalación de misiles nucleares en los países pertenecientes a la OTAN, desde los años 50 en adelante, ese tiempo se redujo hasta los 20 minutos. Sin embargo, luego de la caída del Muro de Berlín, la OTAN inició su acercamiento hacia las fronteras de la Federación Rusa, llegando a instalar misiles en Polonia y Rumania, acortando el tiempo de impacto de los misiles en Moscú a 15 minutos, tiempo que todavía permitía la respuesta de Rusia.
La intención de incorporar a Ucrania a la OTAN echa por tierra la restricción que supone la destrucción mutua asegurada, por cuanto el tiempo de vuelo de un misil lanzado desde la frontera de Ucrania solo es de 5 minutos para llegar a Moscú. Por esa razón, Rusia no puede aceptar la incorporación de Ucrania a la Alianza Atlántica, puesto que es un auténtico problema de seguridad nacional. Una vez incorporada Ucrania a ese pacto, nada puede evitar que se instalen los misiles en su territorio, ni siquiera la voluntad contraria del gobierno ucraniano.
La “alternativa” a la invasión
¿Rusia tenía que invadir Ucrania? Sí. Si suponemos que Rusia no hace nada, en el escenario precrisis, todo indica que Ucrania ingresaría finalmente a la OTAN. La caída del gobierno de Yanukovic en el 2014 es resultado directo de esa constatación. El acercamiento hacia la UE durante varios años enfrentó en cierto momento la condición de ingresar simultáneamente a la OTAN; lo que Rusia hizo en ese instante fue alertar al gobierno ucraniano de que no podía permitir aquello. Cuando el presidente Víktor Yanukovich quiso dar marcha atrás, la ultraderecha y los sectores que se sentían más cercanos a la alternativa de ingresar a la UE iniciaron una movilización social que se transformó en revuelta popular al recibir el impulso de la UE y USA (que ya tenían experiencia en promover la desestabilización, como hicieron en el caso libio en el 2011).
El resultado lo conocemos: cayó el gobierno de Yanukovich y asumió el poder un representante de la oligarquía ucraniana, con fuertes lazos con los movimientos neonazis, profundamente arraigados en ese país. Esto llevó a Rusia a impulsar un referéndum en Crimea, donde tiene la principal base de la flota del Mar Negro y donde el 90% de la población es rusoparlante. El resultado fue la anexión de Crimea a la Federación Rusa.
Simultáneamente, el gobierno de Vladimir Putin incentivó la rebelión de las regiones ubicadas en la cuenca del río Don, lo que dio lugar al surgimiento de dos repúblicas independientes, Lugansk y Donetsk, y motivó el inicio de la guerra de sus milicias, apoyadas por Rusia, contra el ejército de Ucrania, que trataba de recuperar la región. El conflicto se intentó cerrar con los llamados Acuerdos de Minsk, en que Rusia se comprometía a no reconocer la independencia de las regiones rebeldes, y Ucrania a proponer un estatuto de autonomía especial para estas regiones, que tienen una población de mayoría rusa.
Luego de ocho años, se estima que han muerto cerca de 15 mil civiles en el Donbas, producto de las rupturas por parte de Ucrania del alto al fuego acordado, dado que, muy tempranamente, el gobierno ucraniano de Petro Poroshenko declaró que no cumpliría el acuerdo firmado.
¿Rusia tenía que invadir Ucrania? Sí. Estaba obligada a hacerlo y neutralizar la capacidad ofensiva y defensiva del país, lo que supone un enfrentamiento en todo el territorio, ojalá con los menores impactos colaterales en vidas de civiles, para evitar mayores costos frente a la opinión pública internacional. ¿Por qué ahora? Porque una vez que Ucrania ingresara a la OTAN, Rusia no podría hacer nada para evitar la amenaza, a condición de exponerse a un enfrentamiento con la Alianza y el riesgo alto de que, en inferioridad de condiciones, ese enfrentamiento derivara en el uso de armas nucleares. Para evitar ese escenario, Rusia debía invadir ahora a Ucrania de manera inevitable.
Ciertamente, la situación no es resultado de un sino trágico e ineluctable. Las acciones de los distintos agentes involucrados tienen como trasfondo el amplio mercado del gas natural en Europa, actualmente en manos de Rusia, y al que desea acceder Estados Unidos con su gas natural licuado.
Las alternativas de desenlace
Si el proceso se decanta según los intereses de la UE y USA, lo que significa que Rusia se retira de Ucrania aceptando que este país ingrese en la Alianza Atlántica, Estados Unidos habrá ganado un gigantesco mercado para su gas natural de esquisto y al mismo tiempo cercado finalmente a Rusia, neutralizándola como adversaria en el orden mundial. En esa condición podría volverse con más libertad contra su nuevo desafiante, China.
Si, por el contrario, el proceso se decanta en favor de Rusia y Ucrania se convierte en un país ocupado o que acepta alguna forma de neutralidad, se acelerará la ruptura de la Alianza Atlántica y Europa deberá buscar una nueva identidad propia que no reniegue de la parte oriental del continente y, más que competir, aprenda a colaborar con sus parientes eslavos.
La única situación intermedia que existe es que no se produzca una salida clara en Europa y el conflicto se enquiste. En ese caso, el contendiente mejor aspectado es Rusia, por cuanto los acuerdos establecidos con China le permiten mantener el volumen de sus exportaciones de gas y, al mismo tiempo, cerrar una alianza más estrecha con el gigante asiático. En ese cuadro, los damnificados son Europa y USA: los primeros, porque quedan energéticamente en manos de USA y con una independencia política reducida, y el segundo, porque verá, inexorablemente, desplazarse el eje de la hegemonía mundial desde el Atlántico hasta el Pacífico.
Los procesos de la política internacional poco tienen que ver con las caricaturas que se pintan como parte de la guerra de información que rodea a los conflictos. El mundo de buenos y malos está muy alejado de la realidad y da muy poca cuenta de las reales causas que explican la Historia.
104 comentarios en “Ucrania: una guerra inevitable”
Excelente artículo. Pone en relieve la realidad que esconde la información pública: la verdadera razón de la invasión. Estados Unidos y la UE podrían haber ahorrado el sufrimiento al pueblo ucraniano cancelando sus proyectos expansionistas. Europa hizo un pésimo negoicio.
Por eso era importante tener una visión más angular del conflicto. Gracias
Bastante resumido pero un excelente artículo, por un lado el expansionismo del siempre terrible y voraz país norteamericano (USA) queriendo apropiarse de recursos naturales y por el otro un nacionalista conservador defendiendo lo que alguna vez le perteneció además de evitar que el enemigo se instale en el patio de tu casa.
Álvaro, exacto, una muy buena síntesis del artículo. Gracias por el comentario.
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