Adoptar la unión monetaria con Argentina sería para Chile un poco como casarse sin separación de bienes con un ludópata que pasa todos los fines de semana jugando en el casino Monticello. Alemania tiene los recursos para rescatar a Grecia sin que sus propios ciudadanos sufran un impacto económico mayor, pero, ¿alguien se atrevería sostener que Chile podría hacer lo mismo por Argentina (ni hablar de Brasil)?
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Los mandatarios de los dos países más grandes de Sudamérica, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva de Brasil y Alberto Fernández de Argentina, vienen de proponer como objetivo para la integración económica regional la creación de una moneda común para el comercio internacional. Aquí, de inicio, hay que poner dos clarificaciones importantes: no es algo que ocurrirá ni hoy ni mañana, sino en un tiempo futuro indefinido. Y no se trataría, por lo menos al principio, de imprimir nuevos billetes para el uso del ciudadano de pie como remplazante del peso y del real, sino de una referencia virtual para grandes transacciones comerciales a plazo largo o mediano, para así reducir los efectos negativos de la inflación y de la volatilidad de las tazas de cambio. En este sentido, podría ser algo parecido a la Unidad de Fomento (UF) en que se denominan las compras inmobiliarias en Chile, con las mismas ventajas y desventajas de aquel sistema. Pero sí vale la pena considerar si la integración monetaria sería un aporte o un peligro para los chilenos.
Las posibles ventajas de la integración monetaria son considerables. Podría facilitar el comercio y la inversión regionales y crear un bloque económico importante en el continente sudamericano. Las empresas y los inversionistas podrían comprometer sumas importantes de dinero a proyectos de largo plazo en países vecinos sin tener que preocuparse por los posibles efectos de la devaluación de la moneda local. Si la integración monetaria llegara al punto de una moneda común de uso cotidiano, como es el euro en la Unión Europea, los turistas podrían ahorrarse los gastos del cambio (proceso en el cual uno siempre sale perdiendo), y tendrían más confianza y claridad sobre sus gastos de viaje. Hasta ahí, todo bien.
Sin embargo, me parece que, por lo menos bajo las condiciones actuales, la integración monetaria traería para Chile más peligros que ventajas, y que, probablemente, pasarán muchos años antes que existan en la región las condiciones necesarias para que tal unión pudiera prosperar. Vale la pena comparar la actualidad sudamericana con el camino recorrido por la Unión Europea hacia la adopción del euro. La moneda común europea fue resultado de un proceso de medio siglo de integración económica, comenzando en la época de posguerra, cuando la necesidad imperativa de reconstrucción impulsó la creación de un órgano transnacional para repartir los recursos (carbón, acero, etc.). Vino, después, la formación de burocracias reguladoras, la eliminación de controles fronterizos, y la harmonización de las leyes en temas económicos. Por más de una década antes de la creación del euro, los países europeos adoptaron controles del cambio de divisas para mitigar el impacto de las variaciones en los valores de las distintas monedas nacionales. Cuando al fin decidieron adoptar una moneda común, pusieron reglas estrictas para acceder a esta, incluyendo limites sobre la inflación y el gasto fiscal. Los países miembros de la UE también otorgaron algunos de sus poderes soberanos a instituciones transnacionales como el Banco Central Europeo, así limitando sus opciones de manejo en futuras crisis económicas. Por ejemplo, en la crisis de 2008-2014 en la zona mediterránea, los países más afectados, y sobre todo Grecia, no tenían la opción de una política inflacionaria para rebajar sus deudas y obligaciones financieras, porque ya no controlaba su propia moneda, y tuvieron que recurrir a mendigar ayuda económica al Banco Central Europeo, al FMI, y a sus socios más ricos, sobre todo a Alemania. Los alemanes, por su parte, no tuvieron otra opción que cubrir los gastos de sus socios mediterráneos, porque el colapso de la economía griega (tal vez seguido por el colapso de otros países más grandes, como España o Italia), podría haber derrumbado la Unión Europea por completo. Como Alemania es, al mismo tiempo, el país más grande y el más rico de la UE, tuvo la capacidad de absorber las pérdidas de sus vecinos, pero la experiencia dejó un sabor amargo en las bocas de muchos, y contribuyó a una reacción nacionalista en el auge de un nuevo partido de ultraderecha, la “alternativa para Alemania,” o AfD.
Las condiciones en Sudamérica son bien distintas, y su integración económica está lejos de donde estaba Europa en las vísperas de la adopción del euro. Desde sus orígenes en 1991, el Mercosur, el organismo principal de integración económica regional, ha sido una colaboración entre Brasil y Argentina, lanzado por los presidentes de entonces, Fernando Collor de Mello y Carlos Menem. Pero mientras que Alemania y Francia, los países al centro de la integración europea, han mostrado la estabilidad y el dinamismo necesario para que el proyecto resultara, los gigantes sudamericanos han vivido una crisis tras otra durante las tres décadas del Mercosur. Los países más ricos y estables de la región (Chile y Uruguay) son mucho más pequeños, y no están en condiciones de poder rescatar a sus vecinos más grandes, pero menos estables, en caso de necesidad. Argentina cerró el año pasado con una tasa de inflación cerca del cien por ciento, y su discurso público, con el debate abierto sobre el repudio de su deuda internacional, muestra una falta de seriedad preocupante, mientras que su Banco Central carece del poder e independencia necesaria para estabilizar su política monetaria. Adoptar la unión monetaria con Argentina sería para Chile un poco como casarse sin separación de bienes con un ludópata que pasa todos los fines de semana jugando en el casino Monticello. Alemania tiene los recursos para rescatar a Grecia sin que sus propios ciudadanos sufran un impacto económico mayor, pero, ¿alguien se atrevería sostener que Chile podría hacer lo mismo por Argentina (ni hablar de Brasil)? Es notable que dos de los países más ricos de Europa, Suiza y Noruega, se han negado unirse a la Unión Europea, considerando que, como países pequeños, tendrían poca capacidad de influir el trayecto de la UE, que, por lo tanto, les traería más peligros que ventajas. Es por la misma razón que Chile se ha mantenido al margen del Mercosur.
Todo esto no implica que Chile debería encerrarse tras la cordillera; la cooperación económica regional está en el interés de todos, y avanzando paso a paso, tal vez llegue Sudamérica algún día al punto donde está Europa actualmente. Pero sí que, en materia económica como en las relaciones interpersonales, es mejor estar solo que mal acompañado.
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