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  • 8 de junio de 2022
  • 1.141 comentarios

Y nuevamente en campaña

Rolando Cárdenas

Las sorpresas tras la primera cuenta presidencial

Como las encuestas siempre son un insumo que nos entretiene y nos permite seguir las conversaciones políticas semanales casi en tiempo real, ese es el gran mérito de CADEM. Precisamente esta encuesta, que es realizada en los dos días poscuenta, nos entrega resultados bien sorprendentes.

En primer lugar, la aprobación y desaprobación presidencial. Todos los que gustamos de la política coincidimos en que la cuenta pública del presidente Boric fue de alto nivel comunicacional, que supo responder a la dignidad de su cargo y, a la vez, ser cercano y empático con l@s ciudadan@s. Lo que no se esperaba es que la aprobación del presidente subiera 8 puntos, del 36% al 44% y que la desaprobación cayera 10 puntos, del 57% al 47%.

Además, mayoritariamente, la ciudadanía consideró que comunicó bien, apeló a la unidad, mostró liderazgo, fue creíble, capacidad de liderazgo, entre otras variables. Tanto así que en todos los indicadores medidos obtuvo altas aprobaciones.

Por otra parte, la distancia entre el apruebo y el rechazo también cerró su brecha, quedando en el margen de error. El presidente logró con esto cumplir un objetivo central: recuperar la agenda. La repercusión de la cuenta es muestra de que la oposición no logró revertir la jugada presidencial.

Está claro que el mejor activo del gobierno es Boric y su capacidad de comunicación y vinculación con l@s ciudadan@s. Este gran activo debe saber administrarse adecuadamente para no devaluarlo. Esta debería ser también una buena semana para el gobierno, a partir de la gira a Canadá y Estados Unidos.

Boric, junto a los ministros Vallejos y Jackson, conforman el corazón de este gobierno, son líderes pragmáticos, racionales, con mucha capacidad política, que se complementan muy bien. Vienen tiempos muy complejos, crisis económica que debería estar golpeando fuerte en pleno plebiscito, dificultad de disciplinar a los propios, una ciudadanía fragmentada y desconfiada de instituciones y personas. Aquí es donde esperamos que emerjan las capacidades de ministros que serán claves para gestionar este complejo escenario: en primer lugar, Marcel, quien se llevará el peso de la reforma tributaria, esencial para el gobierno y su programa; Montes, y el desafío de parar el gigantesco déficit habitacional que se ha conformado; Valenzuela, y la indispensable seguridad alimentaria. La delincuencia en todo su amplio arco va a requerir mucha más presencia y gestión de parte de los subsecretarios Vergara y Monsalves.

El presidente ha demostrado que no requiere estar todo el día en la televisión, a diferencia de su antecesor, deberá sí o sí respaldar a sus ministros, que muchas veces deberán tomar medidas ya sea impopulares o simplemente más de mercado que de estado. Por eso, recalcamos que esta nueva generación que gobierna ha demostrado ser ecléctica, que en tiempos convulsos es una gran virtud.

La derecha y su ceguera situacional

Carlos Matus define la “ceguera situacional” como aquella parte o perspectiva de la realidad que no vemos debido a que: a) está fuera de nuestro foco de atención; b) está fuera de nuestro campo de comprensión (vocabulario limitado); c) está fuera de nuestra referencia (dificultad para situarse en la visión de otros), y es imposible no darnos cuenta de que este fenómeno que, desde hace varios años, afecta a nuestras élites, hoy se hace patente en la derecha y su campaña por rechazar la nueva Constitución que se presentará al país en los próximos días.

Como se ha comentado desde hace mucho, el elector actual vota de manera mucho más emocional que racional, y por tanto los movimientos que ha hecho la derecha para desarrollar su campaña son bien cuestionables.

  1. Partidos liderando la campaña. Chile Vamos, es decir, UDI, RN y Evópoli, han formalizado su decisión de rechazar la propuesta de nueva Constitución, que aún no está terminada, llamando a la ciudadanía a votar rechazo.
  2. Sostienen que ellos coinciden en que el plebiscito de entrada fue lo suficientemente categórico para concordar que la Constitución del 80 ya está terminada y, por tanto, ellos se comprometen a cambiarla.
  3. Otra delirante aseveración es que el apruebo, si se impone por la mitad más uno de los votos, su resultado no tendría valor, y que lo democrático sería que debería superar el 60%, contraviniendo así la norma más elemental de la democracia y a la vez restando también legitimidad al rechazo si se impone de manera estrecha.
  4. Los convencionales de derecha ya se han plegado a la campaña del rechazo, cuando aún hay comisiones trabajando y, por tanto, aún el proceso no termina.

Si hay algo en que todos coincidimos, es que la ciudadanía tiene una profunda desconfianza de la política y los políticos, por tanto, que los dirigentes de Chile Vamos sean los primeros en aparecer en la foto, no es precisamente un activo. Que se comprometan a realizar los cambios a los que se han opuesto por más de treinta años, no es garantía de que si gana el rechazo, ellos reformarán la Constitución actual, esto no es precisamente muy creíble.

Y para terminar, que exijan que el apruebo debe superar por amplio margen el 50% para ser legítimo o que sus convencionales llamen a rechazar antes de terminar su tarea, es realmente la confirmación de su desacople total con la sociedad.

Cuando se lanzaron los movimientos Amarillos por Chile o Una Que Nos Una, se esperaba que fueran personeros de la exconcertación o del mundo independiente los que lideraran una campaña del rechazo. Eso no tuvo eco y son actores sin relevancia, pero de ahí a la situación actual, es realmente un despropósito mayor. Sería muy difícil para figuras de la exconcertación fotografiarse junto a Coloma u otro, haciendo un llamado conjunto a rechazar la propuesta constitucional y seguir regidos por la Constitución de Pinochet.

Además, las recientes definiciones de la Convención, de eliminar la norma de los dos tercios y que las modificaciones requieran cuatro séptimos, facilita el poder reformarla, quitando un caballito de batalla más del rechazo.

5. Desconfianza en la política y los políticos.

6. Convencionales llamando a rechazar antes de terminar su tarea.

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