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  • 29 de marzo de 2022
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Ya no habrá luna de miel

Pepe Tapia, El Novio.[1]

Aprobación Presidencial

La última encuesta Cadem actualizó las percepciones ciudadanas sobre el gobierno en su tercera semana. Aun cuando la aprobación se mantiene en el 50%, la desaprobación aumenta del 20% al 30%, lo que sucede de manera uniforme tanto a nivel de género, como de estrato social o identificación política.

Al observar las siguientes preguntas de la encuesta, hay rechazo a la nominación de Bárbara Figueroa como embajadora en Argentina -mayor al que generó Pablo “Polo” Piñera-, y a la suma urgencia al proyecto de indulto a los presos de la revuelta, que tiene amplio conocimiento (81%) y también amplio rechazo (64%).

A propósito de la aprobación, Cadem compara las cifras positivas de Boric con las de los gobiernos de Bachelet y Piñera; en esta comparación, Boric inicia con algo menos de aprobación y similar rechazo.

Claramente ya la tan mentada luna de miel de los inicios de los gobiernos ya no existe. La gente espera respuestas concretas a sus problemas más complejos.

Temor de las personas

En la encuesta se miden las percepciones de las personas respecto de la marcha de la economía. La ciudadanía manifiesta un estado de ánimo positivo: el 47% cree que el país va por buen camino, un 51% se siente optimista respecto del futuro del país, un 64% considera buena su situación familiar y personal, y un 63% que las empresas están en una buena situación. A pesar de estas positivas percepciones, un 78% considera que la economía está estancada o en franco retroceso, un 54% ve malas expectativas de empleo y un 62% tiene malas expectativas de consumo, en consonancia con una economía mantenida a flote por el sector comercio.

Es importante considerar estas últimas variables negativas, ya que dan mucha fuerza a iniciativas como el quinto retiro de las AFP, que pueden explicar en parte el alza de la desaprobación en 10 puntos. Considerando que con una política fragmentada y que se realiza sólo a través de proyectos personales, el apoyo al quinto retiro aumenta y el gobierno puede terminar dilapidando su capital político rápidamente.

Otros elementos a considerar son la continuación de las “protestas” en Plaza Italia, Baquedano, Dignidad, como quiera llamársele, la migración descontrolada sin respuesta, los atentados en el Wallmapu y una delincuencia que no da tregua, todo lo cual gatilla con fuerza la pulsión por el orden que tiene nuestra sociedad. Prueba de ello es el rechazo al indulto, con un 64% en contra de la liberación de los presos del estallido.

En relación a la delincuencia, el subsecretario Vergara afirma en entrevista que ya hay suficientes diagnósticos y llegó el tiempo de la operacionalización de las políticas de seguridad, con énfasis en la alianza estratégica con los municipios.

Hay que tener ojo con este último punto, ya que todos los ministros están en ese discurso de operacionalizar a través de los gobiernos locales sus políticas y claramente la debilidad de este nivel subnacional es su capacidad técnica y profesional.

Otro tema estratégico es el tipo de tejido social que hoy existe, pero eso es otra historia. 

Los ministros

Es importante la política de Boric de permitir que sus ministros desplieguen con libertad sus capacidades, manteniéndose en un nivel más bajo de exposición, lo que además ayuda a mantener sus niveles de aprobación.

El dato sorprendente es el buen nivel de conocimiento y alto nivel de aprobación del ministro de Educación (72%, seguido de Marcel con un 71%), en contraposición a todos los anteriores ministros que siempre fueron los peores evaluados del gabinete. El ministro Ávila tiene la habilidad de hablar con franqueza y empatía, lo que hace que la gente siente que no es un político más.

Otro dato relevante es que las principales figuras del gabinete tienen un muy buen nivel de aprobación. Ojalá no se sobregiren en las expectativas que generen; pensamos en el ministro de Economía que se reúne con las empresas víctimas del estallido social, les pide perdón y a la semana siguiente los encapuchados los tratan de incendiar.

El gobierno y sus dos almas

Las dos almas del gobierno, que se debaten entre el avanzar sin transar y la negociación única solución, tienen como protagonistas al PC y al Frente Amplio. Al mirar solo a la coalición Apruebo Dignidad surge la pregunta sobre qué pasa con fuerzas menores tales como la Federación Regionalista Verde Social. Concluimos que si no tuviera parlamentarios tan personalistas, este partido pudiera jugar un rol de bisagra bien relevante para el gobierno.

El gobierno no ha tenido la capacidad de ordenar su mirada y surgen mensajes contradictorios que en quince días de gobierno no permiten hacer una proyección, pero sobre ellos es necesario dar una clarinada de alerta. Muestras de estas diferencias de fondo: Siches y Monsalve, hay presos políticos, no hay presos políticos; Vergara y la ministra Toro, ataque a Carabineros es intolerable, hay que refundar Carabineros; hay que terminar las AFP (variadas autoridades), subsecretaria Sanhueza, debemos devolver la legitimidad a las AFP, entre otras miradas contrapuestas.

[1] Esta cita traerá recuerdos a la generación Sábados Gigantes

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