No podemos obviar que la democracia tampoco ha sido la tónica en la historia de Brasil. No debemos olvidar que Brasil tuvo una monarquía hasta 1889 y que la República tuvo muchas turbulencias y dos dictaduras durante el siglo XX. Por tanto, la democracia ha sido más o menos estable en los últimos 37 años, pero es una anomalía más que una cosa normal en la historia del país vecino.
A.C. Mercado-Harvey
Las elecciones del pasado domingo 30 de noviembre en Brasil no fue apta para cardíacos. Con un 1% de diferencia entre las votaciones de ambos candidatos, estos son los resultados presidenciales más estrechos que se hayan visto. Estas elecciones tuvieron bastantes paralelos con las que ocurrieron en Estados Unidos el año pasado. Las noticias falsas inundaron la campaña de Bolsonaro del mismo modo que lo hicieron en la de Trump; sus seguidores, más que votantes, parecían fanáticos de un equipo de fútbol o de una secta. Si bien no hubo negación por parte del perdedor, este se tomó más que un tiempo razonable para decir que respetaría la Constitución, aunque no admitió la derrota ni felicitó al ganador.
Pero la gran similitud ha sido el intento de golpe de estado en ambos casos. En Estados Unidos, el asalto al Capitolio fue un claro acto criminal que tiene a gente presa y una investigación en el Congreso, que logró mostrar coordinación entre la Casa Blanca y los golpistas. En Brasil, es algo temprano para sacar las mismas conclusiones, pero las manifestaciones, frente a cuarteles en Río de Janeiro, pidiendo un golpe de Estado a los militares y los bloqueos de camioneros no parecen hechos espontáneos ni aislados. De hecho, Luiz Carlos Azedo, en una columna de Correio Braziliense (https://blogs.correiobraziliense.com.br/azedo/nas-entrelinhas-protestos-antidemocraticos-de-finados-foram-jus-espernandis/) de este 3 de noviembre lo dice con todas sus letras: “Entretanto, houve uma sucessão encadeada de ações de caráter nacional desde o dia das eleições que sinaliza a existencia de uma coordenação política entre entre os setores envueltos e que precisa ser investigada, sobretudo se os protestos se prolongarem além do que seria compreensível” (Mientras tanto, hubo una sucesión de acciones encadenadas de carácter nacional desde el día de las elecciones, que señala la existencia de una coordinación política entre los sectores involucrados y que debe ser investigada, sobre todo si las protestas se prolongan más allá de lo comprensible).
La gran pregunta es, ¿cómo llegó Brasil a este nivel de polarización? Las razones son históricas y la similitud con Estados Unidos no es casual tampoco, ambas son sociedades posesclavistas, con dimensiones continentales, con grandes desigualdades entre ricos y pobres, dicotomía urbano-rural, entre otros paralelos. Un punto importante que explica la actitud de los fanáticos de Bolsonaro es la nula conciencia de la historia dictatorial de Brasil. A diferencia de Chile, Argentina y Uruguay, Brasil no metió preso a ningún militar por violaciones a los derechos humanos y Bolsonaro hizo campaña alabando a la dictadura de 20 años que tuvo Brasil (1964-1985). Eso en los otros países de la región es impensable. Es cuestión de preguntarle a Kast cómo le fue defendiendo a Pinochet en Chile.
Otro factor importante es que en Brasil siempre ha existido la idea de que no fueron tantos los muertos durante la dictadura. Lo cierto es que en relación a la población en general fueron menos, pero tampoco un número insignificante. Hubo represión, tortura y exilio, igual que en los otros países, pero no hay memoria histórica o muy poca. Esa es la razón también para el inmenso odio contra Lula, quien es una figura emblemática por haber estado contra la dictadura en su lucha sindical, por ser del pueblo, del nordeste, que es el sector donde tiene su base de apoyo electoral. Lula, pese a todos los intentos de derribar su imagen, sigue siendo la única figura política de centro izquierda con arrastre. Eso quedó demostrado cuando hace 4 años Haddad no logró ganarle a Bolsonaro.
Por otra parte, Bolsonaro es un personaje que lleva tiempo en la política brasileña, que ha consolidado su apoyo entre los evangélicos, en la derecha más tradicional y entre lo que llamaríamos en Chile “fachos pobres”. Eso explica que haya tenido una votación de prácticamente la mitad de los votantes. También, que su partido haya ganado escaños en el Congreso y entre las gobernaciones.
Parte de la adherencia a Bolsonaro es claramente su populismo de derecha que promete cosas que no puede cumplir. Uno de estos puntos es la violencia endémica, el narcotráfico y la corrupción, asuntos que llevan décadas en la política brasileña y que no tienen fácil solución. Entre las noticias falsas, los ofertones vacíos de campaña está más que explicado el gran apoyo que tiene el candidato de extrema derecha. Sin embargo, el fanatismo solo puede explicarse por el elemento evangélico, que ha posicionado a Bolsonaro como el “mesías” (su segundo nombre) que podría salvar al país del caos. Tal como en Estados Unidos, el voto evangélico justifica cualquier cosa en pos de un ciego fanatismo por una ideología de derecha populista.
Tampoco podemos olvidar que la democracia tampoco ha sido la tónica en la historia de Brasil. No debemos olvidar que Brasil tuvo una monarquía hasta 1889 y que la República tuvo muchas turbulencias y dos dictaduras durante el siglo XX. Por tanto, la democracia ha sido más o menos estable en los últimos 37 años, pero es una anomalía más que una cosa normal en la historia del país vecino. Esa tradición antidemocrática explica bastante bien que el país esté inmerso en una maraña en la cual hay un sector importante que no quiere democracia. Esto tampoco es nuevo, hace tiempo que se viene registrando en las encuestas y estuvo bastante patente en el proceso de impeachment de Dilma.
Sin querer ser simplista en las explicaciones del porqué de la diferencia del 1% entre ambos candidatos, esto explica bastante la situación. A esto hay que agregarle la fuerte campaña anti-lulista durante el proceso de la Operación Lava-Jato que culminó con Lula preso y luego la anulación del juicio que permitió que volviera a ser candidato y ganara la presidencia.
Bajo estas circunstancias es de esperar que Lula tenga una presidencia bastante compleja, aunque hay que señalar que el exsindicalista tiene gran muñequeo político y sabrá negociar para lograr gobernar. Como señaló Alberto en nuestro último Diálogo Regionalista, es esperable que Lula retome su liderazgo a nivel continental, lo cual será un cambio bienvenido para las relaciones internacionales de Brasil y de América Latina. Si bien, en el continente hay diferentes izquierdas, el hecho de que varios gobiernos sean de ese signo político tendrá un efecto unificador que podría ayudar en relaciones bilaterales, así como en las relaciones de Brasil con Estados Unidos y Europa.
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