Impacto de la migración, inseguridad, desempleo permanente con especial impacto en la juventud, corrupción son algunos de las situaciones estructurales de nuestro país que no son abordadas como corresponde por el liderazgo político, precisamente por otra dificultad estructural de años: la ceguera situacional de políticos entretenidos en sus juegos electorales, sin apuntar a los problemas de fondo.
Por Rolando Cárdenas
En simple, la ceguera situacional la entendemos cuando en el análisis no se incorporan variables necesarias para iluminar mejor los problemas públicos, y este fenómeno no es nuevo en nuestra alicaída política local. Ya lo indicaba Marco Moreno en el 2016 en relación al gobierno de Bachelet y se ha repetido hasta hoy, sin importar quien sea el jefe de gobierno, es decir, es un fenómeno sistémico en nuestra política. Los problemas que nos afectan se han vuelto cada vez más complejos y mutando peligrosamente a la categoría de estructurales.
Y, sin embargo, nada se ha aprendido, la alta volatilidad electoral, el fenómeno de oposiciones extremas ha producido que en nuestro subcontinente el 80% de las oposiciones gane las elecciones presidenciales. Por tanto, todos los problemas que enfrenta un gobierno son municiones para las contiendas electorales.
La última encuesta CEP, más allá de la crítica a la formulación de algunas de sus preguntas, tiene el valor que es presencial y abarca todo el país. Y deja varios temas que deben llevarnos del preocuparnos al ocuparnos.
Solo a modo de ejemplo, en la encuesta el 70% de las personas está de acuerdo con que los migrantes elevan los índices de criminalidad, lo que puede convertirse en un problema mayor en un país como Chile donde el fenómeno de la migración es un proceso reciente. Hoy, no estamos adelantándonos a este quiebre, sino que es simplemente una munición electoral, por una parte, la oposición en su propaganda dice que la nueva constitución expulsará a los migrantes que están e impedirá que otros puedan entrar al país, y el gobierno para evitar el daño electoral inicia expulsiones y muestra nuevo equipamiento en las fronteras, es decir toda acción solo refuerza lo que hoy la gente cree.
Hoy se está entregando la nueva Encuesta Nacional Urbana de Seguridad Ciudadana (Enusc), que habrá que analizarla en mayor detalle, y en la percepción de inseguridad esta es de un 90,6% la más alta registrada hasta hoy. Las percepciones construyen realidad y la realidad es la única verdad.
Otro fenómeno del que hay que hacer un análisis serio tiene que ver con los altos niveles de desempleo que vive el país y que es mayor en jóvenes. Ya hay economistas que sostienen que este es un fenómeno estructural y que la recuperación de la economía no significará la recuperación del empleo. A este problema hay que sumarle el efecto del acelerado cambio tecnológico de la automatización y la inteligencia artificial, que tendrá como efecto numerosas personas que perderán su trabajo. Cómo enfrentaremos esa nueva realidad con programas eficientes de reconversión en las nuevas áreas de la economía, poco se conoce.
La corrupción es otro factor que las personas sienten que esta extendida en toda la institucionalidad. El caso Hermosilla, varios alcaldes formalizados o en proceso de formalización, sólo ratifican la percepción ciudadana y se equivocan quienes crean que esto puede ser usado en contra de un sector político, para las personas es la clase política en su conjunto o las instituciones como un todo las que están afectas al fenómeno.
Ante este escenario, no muy auspicioso, por cierto, es que esperaríamos que nuestras elites entiendan que es necesario generar una tregua, como reclaman Joaquín Lavín y Alberto Mayol, sino las oportunidades que el país tiene producto de sus riquezas naturales que hoy el mundo requiere, serán lamentablemente desaprovechadas. Los plazos son breves, y lo que nosotros no hagamos alguien más lo hará.
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