Al borde del abismo, los dirigentes del mundo entero se preguntan qué es lo que quiere Putin en Ucrania, y cómo se puede evitar una nueva guerra. Por muy lejos que esté de Chile, nuestro país también podría verse afectado si estalla un conflicto armado, debido a: crisis económica mundial, bajas de exportaciones hacia Europa, alzas de precios de combustibles, que son algunas de las posibles consecuencias.
Por David Allen Harvey
En el verano boreal de 1914, un incidente violento en el sureste de Europa—el asesinato del archiduque Franz Ferdinand de Austria por Gavrilo Prinzip, un militante serbio—gatilló una guerra que nadie quería, pero que los monarcas y ministros de la época, cada uno motivado por sus propios ambiciones y objetivos, no supieron evitar. Un poco más de un siglo después, hay nuevas amenazas de guerra en aquella región, resultado de las ambiciones del presidente ruso Vladimir Putin, la tortuosa historia entre dos países hermanos y las tensiones de la Guerra Fría que nunca se calmaron. La presencia de un ejército de más de cien mil soldados, con un armamento bélico muy poderoso en las fronteras, representa una amenaza fuerte a la paz mundial y aunque no sea lo más probable, es posible que el mundo otra vez se enrede en una guerra sin querer, si no buscan la manera de resolver el conflicto de forma pacífica.
Las historias de Rusia y de Ucrania están entrelazadas desde sus orígenes. El territorio de Ucrania, que bordea el Mar Negro, existía en los márgenes del mundo griego y romano, y fue a través de estas tierras que la civilización se difundió hacia el norte. La ciudad de Kiev fue un centro cultural importante de la Edad Media, la primera gran urbe de la civilización rusa antes de la formación de Moscú y San Petersburgo. En la época moderna, Ucrania siempre formaba parte del Imperio de los zares y, para muchos nacionalistas rusos, es una parte integral de su patria. La etimología del nombre “Ucrania” significa “frontera” en el idioma eslavo medieval, y durante los siglos que duró la Rusia imperial, Ucrania era justamente la frontera sudoeste del dominio de los zares. La situación se mantuvo después de la Revolución Rusa, cuando con el nuevo estado, formalmente la Unión de Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas, se reconstituyó el viejo Imperio en un marco supuestamente más igualitario.
Las tensiones entre rusos y ucranianos se agravaron en la época de Stalin. Durante siglos, los llanos fértiles de Ucrania fueron el granero del Imperio ruso, pero las políticas de colectivización agraria de Stalin provocaron una hambruna severa en la región en los años 30, en la cual murieron millones de personas. A causa de tal sufrimiento, muchos ucranianos inicialmente vieron a las tropas alemanas de Hitler como libertadores, hasta darse cuenta que solo traían más represión y muerte. Millones de ucranianos, tanto civiles como soldados, murieron en la guerra. Las relaciones mejoraron en la época de Khrushchev, cuyo gobierno invirtió en el desarrollo industrial de Ucrania, pero las tensiones entre rusos y ucranianos nunca desaparecieron. El desastre de Chernobyl, que devastó una zona importante de territorio ucraniano, fue otro tema de discordia entre los dos pueblos.
Entre 1989 y 1992, la Unión Soviética se desplomó, y las repúblicas satélites, incluyendo Ucrania, declararon su independencia. Para Vladimir Putin, entonces un joven agente de la temida KGB apostado en Alemania Oriental, este colapso fue un desastre de proporciones históricas y, desde su llegada al poder en 1999, ha trabajado para revertirlo. Esta política neo-imperial tiene diversas causas, entre las cuales figuran la nostalgia soviética, el nacionalismo ruso, los intereses económicos, y su propia ambición. Una consideración no menor es la presencia de millones de rusos en tierras ucranianas, legado del pasado soviético e imperial, quienes, tal como el mismo Putin, consideran que Ucrania no es un país de verdad, sino una parte íntegra de la misma Rusia. Otro motivo importante es que el proceso de democratización que ha vivido Ucrania en los últimos años, por incompleto que sea, constituye un ejemplo atractivo para el pueblo ruso, que Putin quiere eliminar para mantenerse en el poder.
El conflicto actual estalló en 2014, tras la victoria en Ucrania de una coalición que pretendía postular a unirse a la Unión Europea, propuesta absolutamente inaceptable para Putin. Como represalia, fuerzas rusas ocuparon la península de Crimea y la región fronteriza de Donbass, los dos territorios de mayoría rusa dentro del estado de Ucrania. Hubo protestas en Ucrania, en Europa occidental, y en las Naciones Unidas, pero todos sin efecto, y los dos países se han enfrentado en estado de guerra desde entonces (afortunadamente, con muy pocos enfrentamientos militares). Sin embargo, a principios de este año, el gobierno de Putin ha escalado el conflicto, mandando más de cien mil soldados rusos a la frontera ucraniana, con amenaza de invadir no solamente los territorios de mayoría rusa, sino el país entero.
Ahora, al borde del abismo, los dirigentes del mundo entero se preguntan qué es lo que quierePutin y cómo se puede evitar una nueva guerra. Por muy lejos que esté de Chile, también podría verse afectado si estalla un conflicto armado entre Rusia y los países de occidente, debido a: crisis económica mundial, bajas de exportaciones hacia Europa, alzas de precios de combustibles, que son algunas de las posibles consecuencias. Y dado que tanto Rusia como sus posibles adversarios (Estados Unidos, Gran Bretaña, y Francia, entre otros) son potencias nucleares, no se podría descartar un final desastroso para toda la humanidad. Si el ejemplo de la crisis del 1914 nos enseña algo, es que es mucho más fácil comenzar una guerra que terminarla, y una vez comenzada, nadie puede decir hasta dónde podría llegar.
En este momento, los diplomáticos de los países involucrados buscan una salida pacífica al conflicto. En términos puramente militares, si Rusia decide invadir a Ucrania con todo su poder bélico, Ucrania no tiene muchas posibilidades de resistir. Aunque los países occidentales han dado su apoyo a Ucrania, es poco probable que declaren una guerra contra Rusia para defenderla, sobre todo justo después de salir de largas e infructuosas guerras en Irak y Afganistán. Podrían mandar armamento y municiones, pero solo sería postergar lo inevitable. Por otro lado, Rusia, un coloso militar con una economía muy débil, tiene todas las de perder en una guerra económica con las principales economías del mundo. Pero esta opción también tiene sus riesgos, dado que varios países europeos, sobre todo Alemania, dependen del gas licuado exportado desde Rusia. ¿Aceptarían un embargo que podría provocar escasez a sus propios ciudadanos? ¿Cuáles disrupciones globales resultarían de un colapso total de la economía rusa—que podría repetir la crisis actual de Venezuela en una escala infinitamente más grande?
Es de esperar que se encuentre una salida rápida y pacífica al conflicto, antes de que sea demasiado tarde. Ojalá que todos los involucrados reconozcan que no se puede lograr la seguridad y la prosperidad, tanto de Rusia como de Ucrania, por medio de la guerra, sino por la paz y la diplomacia.
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