El retorno de Lula y la polarización establecida con Bolsonaro acabó por condicionar las condiciones de la disputa electoral a opciones binarias. Así, la única alternativa de las fuerzas del centro político estaría en la estructuración de un “nuevo polo” electoral que cambiara el sentido de la contienda política. Y eso no significa, como algunos pensaban, alejarse de la defensa de la democracia.
Alberto Aggio
Traducción: A. C. Mercado-Harvey
El resultado de las elecciones presidenciales del 2 octubre de 2022 sorprendió por la estrecha victoria de Lula (48%) sobre Bolsonaro (43%), cuando todas las encuestas oficiales señalaban una diferencia mucho mayor y algunas hasta le daban el triunfo a Lula en primera vuelta. La disputa, ahora, se va a prolongar hasta el próximo 30 de octubre, cuando será realizada la segunda vuelta. El deseo de ganarle a un gobierno que se presentó como una amenaza a la trayectoria de democratización, que la sociedad venía solidificando por más de 30 años fue postergado y, ahora, no se sabe si, de hecho, será concretado.
Lula quedó en primer lugar porque no permitió que su campaña electoral se izquierdizase, y porque consiguió una sumatoria de apoyo de personalidades de la sociedad civil, del mundo de la cultura, empresarial y sindical. Al llevar a Geraldo Alckmin como su vicepresidente (em Brasil, como en Estados Unidos, el vice presidente va en la papeleta electoral), Lula inició un movimiento de debilitamiento orgánico de un adversario típico, el PSDB, ya tambaleante por problemas y divisiones internas. Fue un tiro certero, demostrado por el resultado. Pero eso no tiene nada que ver con la idea de un “frente amplio” contra el fascismo, como se alardeó en cada apoyo recibido por la candidatura de Lula. Con Bolsonaro radicalizando sus posiciones y amenazando las elecciones y sus resultados diariamente, lo que ocurrió fue que Lula se mantuvo como un polo de atracción, a partir de su expectativa de poder, que se mantuvo firme en las encuestas. Sin embargo, eso fue insuficiente para concretar su victoria.
La resiliencia de Bolsonaro demostró ser mayor de lo previsto y fue sobre todo una demonstración de fuerza, comprobada por el triunfo que obtuvo en las elecciones a diversos gobiernos estatales, al Senado de la República y por el crecimiento de la bancada de aliados en la Cámara de diputados – su partido, el PL, avanzó a casi 100 deputados que, sumados a sus aliados del partido Centrão, seguramente van a tener una mayoría significativa en el Congreso. El hecho notable es que Bolsonaro consiguió una importante ventaja, eligiendo aliados más afines a sus propósitos ideológicos de lo que consiguió en 2018, cuando se registró un apoyo todavía tenue.
Al contar todos los votos, queda claro que la extrema derecha echó raíces en el escenario político brasileño, una situación históricamente nueva. En el caso que Lula venza en segunda vuelta, las dificultades para gobernar serán enormes, en relación a la composición del Congreso, que ciertamente tendrá una mayoría inclinada hacia el bolsonarismo y al partido Centrão. Si fuese al revés y ganase Bolsonaro, el camino hacia los cambios de carácter antidemocrático en las instituciones políticas del país tendrá un camino abierto. Por tanto, no fueron de poca monta los resultados que salieron de las urnas.
La votación de Lula expresa, ciertamente, su sagacidad política y su popularidad. No obstante, muestra también a un líder que es inmensamente más grande que su partido y pegado a un tipo de política “parcializada”, poco adherida a las articulaciones puestas encima de programas partidarios o de coaliciones amplias. En este punto, presenta una coincidencia con Bolsonaro, que no cree en partidos políticos y que fue incapaz de construir uno que pudiese controlar completamente, pero que demostró habilidad para hacer una política típica del partido Centrão, que opera alianzas puntuales, independiente de cualquier criterio que no sea la obtención y voto, garantizando beneficios posteriores.
Si por la derecha Bolsonaro hace una política del “todo vale”, en el sector de izquierda, la propuesta de un “frente democrático” nunca se estableció como una fórmula productiva, desde el punto de vista electoral, permaneciendo en el ámbito de la retórica y alcanzando un único punto positivo: la identificación entre el “frente democrático” y la defensa de la democracia. Lula y el petismo hicieron apenas un discurso electoral con esa fórmula política. El pluralismo político que acarrea la sociedad, la adhesión a la competitividad política como una esfera democrática legítima y el predominio de la llamada “democracia de audiencia”, son algunos de los elementos que obstaculizaron la posibilidad de éxito de la fórmula de un “frente democrático” desde el punto de vista electoral. Precisamente, fue en esa imposibilidad que naufragó la candidatura del centro político, facilitándole a Lula trabajar con la idea de identificación entre su candidatura y el “salvataje” de la democracia frente a la amenaza de continuidad de Bolsonaro. Sin embargo, por otro lado, hizo que ese mismo centro político perdiese cualquier posibilidad de ampliar su crecimiento sobre el electorado de centro derecha o derecha moderada, que se inclinó por Bolsonaro, ampliando su margen.
Como afirmé em un artículo anterior, el retorno de Lula y la polarización establecida con Bolsonaro acabó por condicionar las condiciones de la disputa electoral a opciones binarias: “nosotros contra ellos”; “el bien contra el mal”. Así, la única alternativa de las fuerzas del centro político estaría en la estructuración de un “nuevo polo” electoral que cambiara el sentido de la contienda política. Y eso no significa, como algunos pensaban, alejarse de la defensa de la democracia. Este “nuevo polo” podría representar una “alternativa democrática e progresista” real a la actual polarización, que ha sido nefasta para la democracia brasileña.
Ese polo al centro tendría que ser, en cierto sentido, “excéntrico”, con resultados administrativos distintos para mostrar y atraer a los electores por medio de una proyección de esos resultados en un futuro inmediato. Aún más: debería dislocar el discurso y la pelea política hacia un terreno que no fuese solo democracia versus fascismo, y que presentara temas más ceñidos a la valoración objetiva y subjetiva de los avances del capitalismo brasileño y sus potencialidades conectadas con las dimensiones del compromiso social, de la innovación tecnológica y de la modernidad ecológica. En esos tres puntos, Bolsonaro e Lula aparecen como liderazgos precarios y nada convincentes.
Sin embargo, nada de eso sucedió en la disputa electoral y terminó por reducirse al choque de dos mitos: Lula y Bolsonaro. De acuerdo con el columnista político Luiz Carlos Azedo, Lula: “es el líder metalúrgico que llegó al objetivo, pasó por las penas del infierno después de dejar el poder y renació de las cenizas, como el ave fénix. Bolsonaro es el ‘mito’ que desafió al sistema, construyó una carrera política contra la corriente, se lanzó a la disputa por la presidencia con la cara y el coraje, sobrevivió al atentado que lo dejó entre la vida y la muerte en la recta final de la campaña del 2018”. El primero busca su “regreso al poder, con una suma de los escándalos de su gobierno y un legado de logros sociales”, mientras que el segundo, intenta la reelección, “con una agenda conservadora y la carga de un gobierno inepto, con falta de empatía y con insultos misóginos”.
Tal polarización acabó transformándose en una condena que ahora cargamos a la segunda vuelta. El país que Lula y Bolsonaro están disputando vive una crisis que se muestra al desnudo. De acuerdo a la editorial de Estado de São Paulo: “el hambre volvió a asolar a millones de brasileños. Nuestra imagen internacional es un desastre. Las arcas fiscales fueron devastadas. Los programas de asistencia social fueron reemplazados por ayudas en tiempos electorales. La inflación solo retrocedió en base a parches para contener el precio de los combustibles. Las políticas públicas en el área de salud, educación, medioambiente, cultura y ciencia fueron destrozadas para acomodar billonarios cambios con fines electorales de los parlamentarios”.
Y no serán palabras al viento que producirán el convencimiento de los electores que retornarán a las urnas a finales de este mes. Por tal razón, como afirma Marcelo Godoy, periodista del Estado de São Paulo, es inquietante constatar que nadie sabe cómo Lula, diferente a 2002, pretende lidiar con la economía en un mundo afectado por nuevos conflictos geopolíticos y antiguos desafíos, como la desigualdad en el país; o cómo será su conducta para impedir la corrupción y su relación con un Congreso hostil, que tiene la llave del 50% del presupuesto. Esas son algunas de las dudas, pero hay otras inquietudes. Hasta el momento las alianzas señaladas por el petismo permanecen al interior del campo tradicional de la izquierda. Basta tener ojos para ver que, ahora en la segunda vuelta, Lula y el PT serán desafiados a pensar en la construcción de una coalición amplia si quieren vencer en las elecciones.
Los electores colocaron a la izquierda brasileña en un desafío insólito que solo podrá ser realizado yendo más allá del famoso dilema socrático que vaticinaba el “conócete a ti mismo”, actualizándolo a una fórmula más simple: “reinvéntate” aquí y ahora.
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