Mientras constatemos que la brecha existente para que esos derechos se satisfagan hoy es considerable. Por eso, establecer garantías que mejoren el bienestar colectivo con un costo abordable es una razón más para votar Apruebo a la nueva Constitución. Se trata de iniciar un nuevo camino hacia un país más equitativo y cohesionado.
Gonzalo Martner
Sigue la difusión de lugares comunes sobre el proyecto constitucional, que supuestamente atentaría contra el crecimiento económico. Esto no está basado en evidencia sólida. Lo que hace el proyecto es poner énfasis en normas que fortalezcan un bienestar equitativo y sostenible. Cabe agregar que si la legislación posterior se inclina por una mejor redistribución de los ingresos, a través de impuestos progresivos y reglas laborales más simétricas, la evidencia disponible indica que, en la mayoría de los casos, son políticas positivas para el crecimiento o no lo afectan.
Los economistas convencionales siguen, como siempre, haciendo afirmaciones genéricas basadas en juicios propios de la vulgata liberal. Para este enfoque, el crecimiento solo provendría de políticas que aseguren altas rentabilidades del capital, lo que supone mantener reglas tributarias, laborales y ambientales, leves y laxas. Las políticas de remuneración privilegiada del capital serían las únicas que permitirían altas tasas de inversión y la ampliación de las capacidades productivas, así como del empleo y los ingresos. Esta visión es la que Keynes cuestionó de raíz hace ya un siglo, subrayando que la inversión depende sobre todo del horizonte futuro de la demanda efectiva, que es la que alimenta el circuito económico: si esta no se presenta en volúmenes suficientes en las expectativas de los agentes económicos, se produce un “equilibrio de subempleo” y se pierden oportunidades de uso de los recursos disponibles, debilitándose el crecimiento.
Por su parte, Betancor y otros han publicado una estimación del costo de hacer efectivos los derechos y regulaciones enunciados en la nueva Constitución, que alcanzaría entre 9% y 14% del PIB de 2021. Se trata de un trabajo bien hecho, hasta dónde se puede hacer este tipo de estimaciones, que tienen un componente siempre discrecional en la fijación de parámetros y la elaboración de supuestos. La principal crítica que se le puede hacer es que contrasta la estimación de los gastos adicionales en régimen (es decir a mediano y largo plazo) con el PIB de 2021, como si no fuera a crecer nunca más. Y el trabajo parece tener un implícito: mientras más bajo el gasto público, mejor. Este es evidentemente un juicio de valor a lo Milton Friedman, muy cuestionable.
En efecto, los países cuyos sistemas públicos más invierten en las personas (en salud, educación, pensiones, vivienda, ayudas sociales), y en la innovación y bienes públicos (infraestructura, conocimiento) son los más prósperos y estables en el mundo contemporáneo. Los datos de la OCDE indican que los gastos sociales representaban en Chile en 2019 (último dato disponible) un 11% del PIB, situados en el rango más bajo entre los países miembros. En el rango más alto, llegaban a 31% del PIB en Francia, y en Finlandia y Bélgica alcanzaban a 29% del PIB. En el rango medio, en Nueva Zelandia y Estados Unidos llegaban a 19% del PIB. Como se observa, Chile está lejos de las democracias maduras en materia de redistribución e inversión en las que, según la leyenda neoliberal, la gente debiera estar muriendo de hambre por las calles ahogada por los impuestos y regulaciones del malvado Estado. Esta es una leyenda desmentida contundentemente por los hechos económicos del siglo XX y XXI.
El trabajo de economistas del FMI como Berg y Ostry (2011) o de Gründler y Scheuermeyer (2015), no controvertidos, concluyen que una menor desigualdad neta se correlaciona con un crecimiento más rápido y más durable, y que el impacto de la redistribución sobre el crecimiento parece ser benigno, pues hay evidencia de que, solo en casos extremos, puede tener efectos negativos. Sus efectos conjuntos, directos e indirectos –incluidos los efectos de la menor desigualdad resultante–, son favorables al crecimiento. Estos autores concluyen que no se puede suponer que hay una gran disyuntiva entre redistribución y crecimiento, pues los mejores datos macroeconómicos disponibles para un gran número de países no respaldan esa hipótesis.
El hecho es que la comentada estimación de gastos adicionales que implicaría aprobar la nueva Constitución tiene un rango (siempre es bueno en estos temas establecer rangos antes que cifras absolutas) que va desde los mencionados 9% a 14% del PIB de 2021. Como este es un coeficiente en el que el gasto adicional es el numerador y el PIB es el denominador, un crecimiento de 2% al año del PIB en 10 años, manteniéndose constante o creciendo levemente el costo adicional estimado, sería más que suficiente para costear los nuevos derechos que se podrían consagrar universalmente en ese horizonte. Por tanto, del estudio no aparece nada que se asemeje a un desborde fiscal en perspectiva.
Mientras constatemos que la brecha existente para que esos derechos se satisfagan hoy es considerable. Por eso, establecer garantías que mejoren el bienestar colectivo con un costo abordable es una razón más para votar Apruebo a la nueva Constitución. Se trata de iniciar un nuevo camino hacia un país más equitativo y cohesionado, en el que los derechos fundamentales de las personas se hagan progresivamente efectivos, y en el que el crecimiento sea sustentable y llegue a toda la población. Ya no es sostenible que siga en los actuales niveles de concentración en una minoría oligárquica, sino que debe ser puesto al servicio de una prosperidad compartida.
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Any tips?
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