Muchos medios de comunicación chilenos han informado que la Corte Suprema abolió el derecho al aborto en Estados Unidos, lo cual es una información incorrecta o incompleta. David Harvey nos explica qué significa el histórico fallo y nos alerta sobre las lecciones que podría sacar Chile, en particular cuando enfrentamos un proceso constituyente que propone entregarle derechos reproductivos garantizados a las chilenas.
David Allen Harvey
El viernes pasado, en su fallo sobre el caso Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, la Corte Suprema de los Estados Unidos declaró que el derecho al aborto no es un derecho protegido en la Constitución del país. Este fallo, que revirtió el anterior del famoso caso Roe vs. Wade (1973) dio lugar a una ola de protestas y de recriminaciones, no solo en EE.UU., sino en gran parte del mundo, donde se ha especulado sobre lo que podría significar para los derechos reproductivos a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, la situación norteamericana tiene muchos aspectos que son únicos del país, y que son desconocidos en el resto del mundo. En este artículo, explicaré qué significa este fallo, cuáles serán sus consecuencias, y las lecciones que el resto del mundo puede tomar del caso norteamericano.
Algunos medios internacionales han declarado que, como resultado del fallo, el aborto sería ilegal en los Estados Unidos. Esta interpretación es incorrecta, o por lo menos incompleta. Vamos a los hechos. En el caso Roe vs. Wade, una mujer soltera que solicitaba un aborto (conocida por el seudónimo de “Jane Roe”) presentó una demanda contra el fiscal de Dallas (Texas), Henry Wade, alegando que la prohibición vigente contra el aborto infringía a sus derechos constitucionales al trato igualitario y su derecho a la privacidad. La Corte Suprema de aquella época falló a su favor, declarando que los gobiernos estatales no tenían el derecho de prohibir el aborto. Sin embargo, en los años siguientes, varios gobiernos estatales han pasado leyes para restringir el derecho al aborto, entre los cuales el estado de Mississippi, uno de los estados más conservadores, pobres, y rurales de los EE.UU., prohibió el aborto después de 15 semanas de gestación. La única clínica de Mississippi que proveía abortos, Jackson Women’s Health Organization, demandó al oficial Thomas Dobbs, citando el derecho al aborto reconocido en el caso de Roe. La Corte Suprema actual, con una mayoría conservadora de seis jueces contra tres, falló que no hay un derecho constitucional al aborto y que, por lo tanto, los gobiernos estatales tienen el derecho a restringirlo y/o prohibirlo.
Como muchos lectores sabrán, Estados Unidos es una república federal compuesta por cincuenta estados, cada uno de los cuales tiene sus propias legislaturas, leyes, y sistemas judiciales. Una docena de los estados más conservadores aprobaron trigger laws (leyes gatillos) que prohibirían el aborto, en el caso de que la Corte Suprema rechazara el fallo de Roe. Como consecuencia de la decisión del viernes pasado, el aborto será de inmediato ilegal en estos estados. Hay otra docena de estados donde el Partido Republicano, que ha declarado reiteradamente su oposición al aborto, controla el poder ejecutivo (gobernador) y legislativo (cámara y senado estatales). La mayoría de los analistas políticos creen, con mucha razón, que estos estados también prohibirán el aborto en los próximos meses. Por lo tanto, lo más probable es que, dentro de poco, el aborto será ilegal en la mitad del país.
Como demostraron las elecciones presidenciales de 2016 y 2020, Estados Unidos es un país profundamente dividido, y la geografía electoral revela una división entre las regiones costeras del oeste y noreste (estados, en general, muy urbanizados, con gran diversidad racial y niveles menores de observación religiosa), que apoyan al Partido Demócrata, y la mayor parte de la zona central y sur (estados más rurales, conservadores, de menos diversidad racial y altamente religiosos), que apoyan al Partido Republicano. A pocos días del fallo de la Corte Suprema, los tres gobernadores demócratas de los estados de la costa del Pacífico (California, Oregón, y Washington) han anunciado su compromiso por defender el derecho al aborto. Por lo tanto, el escenario de los próximos años es de un país divido en dos: una zona enorme en el centro y sur del país donde el aborto legal ya no existirá, y las grandes ciudades costeras, donde persistirá.
Algunos analistas han advertido, correctamente, que el nuevo status quo agravará la desigualdad ya existente en el país con respeto a los derechos reproductivos. Las mujeres de la clase media y alta mantendrán su acceso a los servicios de aborto. Si no viven en estados donde estén disponibles, bastará tomar un avión a Nueva York o a California para obtenerlos. Son las mujeres pobres, sobre todo las de los estados rurales y conservadores, quienes no tienen recursos para viajar, que serán las más perjudicadas. No solo se verán sin opciones frente a un embarazo no deseado, sino que muchas quedarán desamparadas cuando nazcan sus hijos, dado que el sistema de bienestar social (salas cuna, controles médicos, posnatal pagado, etc.) es mucho menos generoso en los Estados Unidos que en los países europeos, e incluso menos que en Chile. Si bien en la zona norte central, hay estados como Illinois, Minnesota, y Colorado donde el aborto legal se mantendrá al alcance de mujeres de los estados vecinos conservadores, es probable que el aborto se prohibirá en todo el sector sur del país, con consecuencias muy tristes por las mujeres pobres de la región.
En cierto sentido, el fallo de la Corte Suprema no resuelve nada, sino que abre un nuevo periodo de intenso conflicto político y legal sobre el derecho al aborto. Si el estatus legal del aborto parece bastante claro en los estados republicanos (estados “rojos,” en la geografía electoral norteamericana) y los estados demócratas (o estados “azules”), la situación no es de nada clara en los estados donde el poder político está dividido entre los dos partidos—estados “morados,” según algunos—tales como Michigan, Wisconsin, y Pennsylvania, que tienen gobernadores demócratas determinados a mantener los derechos reproductivos, y mayorías legislativas republicanas, determinadas a prohibir el aborto. Lo único que se puede afirmar es que las próximas elecciones ya se ven particularmente reñidas. Estos tres estados tienen una importancia política enorme: Donald Trump ganó los tres en 2016, lo que le permitió, según la matemática arcaica del Colegio Electoral, ser elegido presidente, a pesar de haber ganado menos votos al nivel nacional que Hillary Clinton; mientras que, en 2020, perdió en estos tres estados, perdiendo así la presidencia frente a Joe Biden.
Además de las fuertes divisiones regionales sobre el tema del aborto, hay una gran división generacional, que existe incluso dentro del Partido Demócrata. Tanto el presidente Biden como la presidenta de la Cámara de Diputados, Nancy Pelosi, apoyan los derechos reproductivos, pero son los dos de una generación (Biden tiene 79 años y Pelosi 82) que se incomoda mucho hablar de temas de sexualidad. Además, los dos son católicos practicantes que tratan de reconciliar sus convicciones políticas y religiosas, lo cual les ha provocado conflictos con la jerarquía católica norteamericana, extremadamente retrógrada, que ha intentado en varias instancias excomulgar ambos. Al contrario, la nueva generación de militantes demócratas quiere una postura mucho más agresiva para defender los derechos de las mujeres frente al asalto republicano. Muchos se preguntan por qué el Partido Demócrata no aprobó una ley para garantizar los derechos reproductivos cuando tuvo la oportunidad—por ejemplo, durante la administración de Barack Obama, quien evitó el tema para no perder el apoyo de algunas figuras de su propio partido por su reforma de salud. Incluso hoy, existe una posibilidad, aunque remota, de pasar una ley para garantizar los derechos reproductivos a nivel nacional, pero habría que cambiar las reglas del Senado, cosa que ni el presidente ni algunos senadores demócratas están dispuestos de hacer. La nueva generación, liderada por la diputada de Nueva York, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (quien se perfila como una Camila Vallejo boricua—joven, bonita, inteligente, y muy ágil en redes sociales), ya está presionando a la gerontocracia del partido a poner más empeño en la defensa de los derechos de la mujer, y el recambio generacional vendrá tarde o temprano.
Es difícil predecir qué va pasar con el tema de aborto en los EE.UU. a futuro. Todas las encuestas indican que la mayoría de los norteamericanos—alrededor de 60%–quiere conservar los derechos reproductivos. Pero los conservadores dominan la Corte Suprema, y tienen una ventaja estructural en el Senado, donde los delegados de estados rurales poco poblados tienen una sobre representación, lo cual implica que la división se mantendrá durante un buen tiempo. También, está claro que el fallo de la Corte Suprema ha motivado a la juventud, que tradicionalmente tiene una participación electoral muy débil, a salir a la calle a protestar. Si salen a votar en los mismos números, podrán cambiar la dirección del país. Irónicamente, se rumorea que el expresidente Trump, quien hizo posible este fallo nombrando a tres jueces ultraconservadores a la Corte Suprema, no está nada contento con el resultado, porque reconoce que complica sus posibilidades de volver a la Casa Blanca. Aún es difícil predecir cuáles serán las consecuencias políticas del fallo.
El ejemplo norteamericano demuestra lo frágil que pueden ser los derechos individuales, si no tienen el respaldo de leyes constitucionales. En Chile, donde el aborto en tres causales fue aprobado hace unos pocos años, la nueva Constitución elaborada por la Convención Constitucional propone garantizar los derechos reproductivos como derechos fundamentales. Es un tema que vale la pena considerar antes del plebiscito del 4 de septiembre. Veremos si l@s chilen@s sacan una lección útil de este fallo norteamericano.
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