Gonzalo Martner
La economía chilena “pasó agosto” con una sorpresa positiva en el Índice Mensual de Actividad Económica (Imacec). El índice desestacionalizado presentó un incremento de 0,6% respecto del mes previo, una buena cifra. En contraste, entre abril y julio se habían producido caídas en este indicador, haciendo prever una recesión en breves plazos. El buen resultado de agosto se explica por la expansión mensual de 1,9% en el suministro de servicios, aunque se produjo una caída de -2,1% en el comercio. La producción de bienes no experimentó variaciones.
¿Qué se puede pensar sobre estos datos? En los 8 primeros meses del año, el crecimiento de la actividad económica es de 4,9% en comparación con el mismo período del año anterior. Este promedio esconde una evolución dual: la producción agregada de bienes (pesca, agricultura, minería, manufactura, construcción) ha caído en -2,0% anual y se encuentra «en recesión», mientras se evidencia un estancamiento en agosto respecto al mes previo en términos desestacionalizados. Sus precios, y los de sus insumos, son frecuentemente, determinados internacionalmente.
Por su parte, la producción de servicios (que recordemos representa la mayor parte del PIB y del empleo e incluye los servicios a las personas, como la educación y la salud, y los servicios a las empresas) ha crecido en un notorio 10,4% anual en los 8 primeros meses. Es decir, se encuentra «en auge» y con un aún mayor nivel de crecimiento anualizado en agosto. Sus precios están determinados internamente y presentan una mayor flexibilidad en la expansión de sus capacidades de oferta ante aumentos de la demanda, como los ocurridos desde 2021, por lo que sus presiones inflacionarias son menos intensas.
El consumo de los hogares ha disminuido en el primer semestre de 2022, respecto a su nivel del segundo semestre de 2021 en -1,0% en términos desestacionalizados y parece haberse recompuesto en beneficio de los servicios, relegando la compra de bienes, especialmente de bienes durables. Esto, en buena hora, está moviendo la economía y tendrá efectos positivos en la balanza comercial, a pesar del intento pertinaz del Banco Central de provocar una recesión que supuestamente aliviaría la inflación, la que recordemos es, esencialmente, de origen importado. Por su parte, la inversión (FBCF) ha caído en -7,0%, lo que es una muy mala noticia para el crecimiento futuro. Dado su diagnóstico erróneo, probablemente el Banco Central va a seguir subiendo la tasa de interés, pues pareciera querer llevar a toda costa el nivel de actividad agregada a un nivel del orden de aquel del primer semestre de 2021. El crecimiento empujado por la demanda del segundo semestre de 2021 puso excesivamente nerviosa a la entidad encargada de la política monetaria y cambiaria.
Es de esperar que el alza de tasas de política monetaria siga siendo neutralizada, al menos en parte, con una buena operación del Fondo de Garantía para el Pequeño Empresario (Fogape) para mantener tasas subsidiadas a disposición de las pymes y que la actividad, en vez de deprimirse, se sostenga, lo que irá en beneficio del bienestar general y del empleo.
Despejado de efectos estacionales, entre los trimestres terminados en marzo y agosto, el empleo total no ha experimentado mayores variaciones, según el INE, en consonancia con la evolución de los servicios, que son la principal fuente de puestos de trabajo en la economía chilena. En cambio, el empleo asalariado formal disminuyó en cien mil personas entre mayo y julio, según los registros administrativos. Por su parte, los salarios reales han disminuido entre enero y agosto en -2,7% anual en términos reales, por efecto de la inflación y la ausencia de reajustes salariales nominales significativos.
Desde el segundo semestre de 2021 se inició un proceso de aceleración inflacionaria de origen interno (por el fuerte aumento del consumo en 2021 a raíz de los retiros masivos de ahorros previsionales) y externo (por el inicio del aumento de los precios de alimentos y combustibles, dada la normalización de la demanda pospandemia). Este proceso se aceleró en marzo de 2022 en su componente externo con la invasión rusa a Ucrania, con sus respectivos impactos en los precios de bienes y servicios elaborados o suministrados internamente en Chile. En efecto, casi todos los alimentos incluyen insumos importados y casi todas las actividades usan combustibles, cuya materia prima Chile prácticamente no produce.
Como se observa en el gráfico adjunto (el IPC es la línea azul), luego de una distensión del impacto inicial de marzo hacia junio de 2022, se produjo un segundo impulso externo alcista en julio, el que empezó a ceder desde entonces (el petróleo bajó su precio). En particular, los precios no transables internacionalmente (línea verde) han aumentado mucho menos que los de los bienes que sí son objeto de comercio exterior, fruto de una normalización de su suministro. Estos precios internos se encuentran ya con incrementos «normales» (0,2% en septiembre). En cambio, los precios de los bienes sujetos al comercio internacional (línea roja) han aumentado a ritmos aún significativos (1,4% en septiembre). Los precios transables, ayudados por la devaluación del peso, se han incrementado en el último mes nada menos que 7 veces más que los precios no transables internacionalmente (básicamente de servicios, a pesar de la fuerte expansión reciente de su suministro).
Para evitar una recesión –aunque no sea su mandato actual–, el Banco Central debiera bajar la tasa de interés, en vez de seguir subiéndola, dado su escaso impacto en la inflación importada. Y, especialmente, para no seguir afectando la inversión, incluyendo la construcción, a través de las altas tasas hipotecarias, así como la actividad en general, dado el muy elevado costo de las líneas de crédito para empresas (salvo las subsidiadas a través del Fogape) y personas. La inflación externa no puede ser controlada por el Banco Central, mientras su compensación corresponde al gobierno, a través de una política de ingresos como el subsidio del aumento del precio de los alimentos, a través de la asignación familiar, la que está en aplicación, pero debiera extenderse a más sectores de la población, y las políticas de contención temporal de precios de los combustibles en aplicación.
La política de llevar expresamente la economía a una recesión para contener la inflación importada –sin lograrlo hasta el momento, por lo demás, dada la mencionada expansión de los servicios– es algo así como salir a cazar moscas con escopeta, si se me permite la expresión. Además, dado que esta inflación externa se origina en fenómenos internacionales con componentes de coyuntura, las sobrerreacciones internas no han sido exactamente la política adecuada.
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