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Qué duda cabe que la opinión pública cambia permanentemente y nadie es capaz de seguir su ritmo. Se suponía que la generación que está de salida en la política, y en la vida, no entendía los rápidos procesos que vive nuestra sociedad, y la generación millenial, que hoy asume con propiedad el poder, era capaz de comprender este complejo siglo.
Sin embargo, una cosa es surfear la ola y otra muy diferente entender las complejas relaciones en la subestructura, como diría un marxista. Dejarse llevar es simple comparado con la difícil tarea de conducir, ya lo sabe bien este gobierno que rápidamente está perdiendo el apoyo popular y aumentando fuertemente su desaprobación.
Hay un elemento de mucha importancia, que conversábamos con los autores de Todo Legal, Carlos Tromben e Ignacio Schiappacasse, y esto es la profunda transformación cultural que vive la sociedad. Se trata de una transformación que tiene dos vías: el impacto de la ideología neoliberal, que lleva más de cuarenta años anidada en nuestro país, y el mundo y los cambios vertiginosos, ocasionados por la revolución tecnológica acelerada que vivimos.
Fragmentación, emocionalidad, moralidad, individualismo, son fenómenos que dificultan de sobremanera el actuar del gobierno con su coalición y la comunidad.
La foto del momento
En el ámbito de la evaluación del gobierno, las noticias son malas para el presidente, quien baja sustantivamente su aprobación y su reprobación aumenta. CADEM arroja un 50% de desaprobación y 40% de aprobación, ACTIVA, un 51% de desaprobación y 27,8% de aprobación.
Esta baja arrastra al conjunto del gabinete y todos los ministros tienen fuertes caídas en sus evaluaciones. El nivel general de aprobación del gabinete es 24,1% y la desaprobación alcanza el 56,6%.
Entre los ministros con mayor conocimiento público, las bajas de aprobación son las siguientes: Vallejos, de 52,3% a 32%, Jackson, de 54,8% a 32,4%, Siches, de 55,5% a 22,9%, Marcel, de 61,4% a 43,4%, Fernández, de 58,3% a 42,1% y Montes, de 58,1% a 40,5%. Todos, salvo Siches, con mayor aprobación que reprobación. La ministra del interior es claramente la mayor damnificada de este gabinete.
El quinto retiro, que era la primera prueba política de verdad para el gobierno y sus ministros, termina con una innegable derrota, aun cuando se hubiese aprobado su propuesta de retiro parcial, que de todas maneras implicaba ceder en sus convicciones.
Además, en virtud de poder lograr un acuerdo político con la oposición para detener allí el apoyo al rechazo, que no tiene en sus fuerzas políticas, debe presentar una reforma constitucional que declare inembargable los fondos obtenidos por las personas en el modelo de capitalización individual, lo que marca las posibilidades de propuestas para la tan indispensable reforma de pensiones que requiere el país.
Ya se ha realizado la votación de las dos propuestas de quinto retiro y ambas fueron rechazadas por la Cámara de Diputados, un mal resultado para el gobierno, con un lamentable espectáculo de parte de nuestros representantes. Sin embargo, la UDI ha logrado una victoria, que es importante considerar: que el gobierno haya debido negociar con ellos la presentación de una reforma constitucional para declarar la inexpropiabilidad de los fondos de pensiones, es una buena jugada, ya que obviamente debe ser considerada en la discusión de la Convención Constitucional. Se trata, además, de un escenario que obliga a sincerar posiciones en el Parlamento, en particular a los grupos que siguen tras la huella del sistema de reparto. Este es un caballito de batalla de la derecha para apuntalar la campaña del Rechazo; si ésta no es aprobada, la Convención se fortalece.
Respecto de la Convención Constitucional, las noticias tampoco son positivas. El rechazo está subiendo consistentemente y las emociones que embargan a las personas, van mutando de la esperanza y alegría a la incertidumbre, miedo y confusión.
Tal como lo han reconocido personeros de gobierno, la suerte de éste y la Convención están absolutamente ligadas, por tanto, la posibilidad de que antes del plebiscito de salida se realice un cambio de gabinete es cada vez más probable, toda vez que con bajas tasas de aprobación el gobierno, es más un pasivo que un activo, algo que vivió el gobierno anterior, en el plebiscito que acordó el término de la Constitución de la dictadura.
Negociación, negociación, única solución
El acuerdo con la oposición para poder parar el quinto retiro es una medida que refleja la poca capacidad de disciplinar las filas, y sobre todo una diferencia enorme para ver la realidad del país por parte de quienes gobiernan y sus bancadas parlamentarias.
Esta necesidad de llegar a acuerdos es además algo que según las encuestas la gente demanda de la Convención.
A esta acción del gobierno debemos sumar la respuesta de la vocera Vallejo, ante la pregunta de si el Ejecutivo estaría en disposición de apoyar la moción de un diputado democratacristiano, de declarar feriado el 2 de mayo, ya que el primero es domingo. La respuesta de la ministra, indicando que todo es recíproco, demuestra que pareciera que la nueva forma de gobernar es una transacción permanente entre el Ejecutivo y el Legislativo.
La política y la vida son una transacción permanente y pareciera que en estos tiempos de crisis, esta será la condición para poder avanzar.
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