Es de esperar que la tercera iniciativa para legislar una reforma del sistema de AFP (luego del proyecto del final de Bachelet y el de inicios de Piñera) sea la vencida. Habrá que poner especial atención al comportamiento de los parlamentarios que han sido miembros de directorios de AFP (los hay, como la senadora Rincón) y/o que defienden sus intereses, los que intentarán mantener a estas entidades a toda costa (obtienen altas utilidades sin función social alguna que defenderán con dientes y muelas), y evitar la creación del órgano público encargado de la capitalización colectiva.
Gonzalo Martner
El gobierno presentó su reforma de pensiones, que toma en cuenta, en parte, los consensos previos, pero también hereda las controversias no resueltas y, al mismo tiempo, innova para avanzar en ellas.
El nuevo sistema quedará con un primer piso, a partir de la ley aprobada en enero, que permite que el 90% hoy, el 100% mañana si se aprueba la reforma, tenga una pensión básica universal llueve o truene, financiada por los impuestos (dicho sea de paso, es un vilipendiado «sistema de reparto», es decir, de recaudación obligatoria y pago mensual a quien tiene el derecho previsional). Su monto dependerá de los impuestos, por supuesto. Y no faltarán los que no quieran subirlo, pero sin subir los impuestos: la mala noticia es que no cuadra. Pero este gobierno la llevará al menos a 250 mil pesos para casi todos. Un mayor aporte tributario de los más pudientes podría mejorar ese piso universal.
A eso se agrega que, para bajar las comisiones en el segundo piso de capitalización individual (1,2% en promedio hoy sobre el 10% obligatorio), se reemplazarían las AFP por «Inversores de Pensiones». La recolección de los fondos lo haría ahora el «Instituto Previsional Autónomo» (hoy Instituto de Previsión Social) para aprovechar las economías de escala, usando las tecnologías de la información pertinentes. Ese menor costo administrativo permitiría bajar a 10,5% la cotización obligatoria para el trabajador, aumentando el sueldo líquido. Se cobraría comisiones por el valor del fondo y no un porcentaje del aporte mensual, para responsabilizar a los inversores privados con el monto acumulado. Existirían categorías de riesgo, según edad, a los que los afiliados serían asignados. El tope de sueldo imponible sería de unos 4,2 millones, el mismo existente en el seguro de cesantía.
En un tercer piso, se propone que el 6% adicional de aporte del empleador (1% por año en lo sucesivo hasta llegar a 6%) ya acordado por el anterior parlamento -pero no aprobado- sea administrado por un nuevo «Inversor de Pensiones Público y Autónomo», de carácter profesional, con un consejo de 7 personas. El 70% del aporte del empleador quedaría registrado por su valor efectivo y el 30% restante por el valor promedio del sueldo de todos los cotizantes, para permitir un aumento de las pensiones más bajas con un moderado aporte de los sueldos más altos. Existiría, además, una Garantía de Pensión, equivalente a 0,1 UF por año cotizado, con un máximo de 30 años (unos 104 mil pesos).
También, el «Inversor Público» podría recibir los aportes de los cotizantes que voluntariamente quieran confiarles su 10,5%, en vez de hacerlo a los inversores privados, aumentando la competencia en el segundo piso de capitalización individual.
La pensión contributiva se calculará en función de lo acumulado individualmente a lo largo de los años y de la esperanza de vida, sin distinción de sexo. Esto mejorará sustancialmente la pensión de las mujeres. Existirá solo una renta vitalicia, en UF, pues ya no habrá retiro programado que deja en niveles muy bajos las pensiones en la edad más avanzada, que es cuando más protección se requiere. El que quiera podrá separar un monto de lo ahorrado que se sustraiga de la pensión para heredarlo a quien desee.
Un cuarto piso completa el sistema, es decir, el actual esquema de APV, en el que se privilegiará un Ahorro Previsional Voluntario Colectivo, a pactar a nivel de empresas, que otorga incentivos tributarios a los ahorros voluntarios para complementar las pensiones contributivas.
Este es el esquema básico de lo que el gobierno ha diseñado. Para un trabajador que gana 400 mil pesos hoy, con 50% de lagunas de cotizaciones la pensión pasaría de 268,5 mil pesos a 392,4 mil pesos, por aumento de la pensión garantizada de 194 mil a 250 mil pesos más 68 mil pesos por redistribución. El mismo caso de una mujer llevaría la pensión de 257,7 mil pesos a 392,5 mil pesos, por los mismos incrementos más unos 11 mil pesos adicionales a su favor por cambio en la tabla de mortalidad. Las tasas de reemplazo del salario previo serían para esos salarios cercanas a 100%, y para salarios de un millón del orden de 60%.
Es de esperar que la tercera iniciativa para legislar una reforma del sistema de AFP (luego del proyecto del final de Bachelet y el de inicios de Piñera) sea la vencida. Habrá que poner especial atención al comportamiento de los parlamentarios que han sido miembros de directorios de AFP (los hay, como la senadora Rincón) y/o que defienden sus intereses, los que intentarán mantener a estas entidades a toda costa (obtienen altas utilidades sin función social alguna que defenderán con dientes y muelas), y evitar la creación del órgano público encargado de la capitalización colectiva.
A los escépticos de las capacidades públicas, cabe advertirles que ya existen los diversos fondos de reserva fiscales, incluyendo el Fondo Económico y Social y el Fondo de Reserva de Pensiones, que permiten mantener el pago de las funciones sociales y de la pensión básica en períodos de vacas fiscales flacas, cuyo manejo y rentabilidad, con apoyo en entidades especializadas, ha sido satisfactoria.
En el trámite parlamentario habrá que asegurar que la autoridad democrática, si bien no está llamada a decidir sobre inversiones particulares del «Inversor Público», sí habrá de establecer los criterios de inversión en materia de sustentabilidad y respeto de reglas sociales, así como tener derecho a establecer criterios de soberanía en casos específicos, de modo que no sean siete personas las que, por su cuenta, determinen buena parte de la inversión en el país, con reglas muy estrictas en materia de conflictos de interés y prohibición de posterior empleo en el sector privado elegible. A su vez, debieran considerarse redistribuciones desde los grupos sociales de baja esperanza de vida a los de más alta longevidad (las diferencias son enormes) en las rentas vitalicias y desde cohortes más o menos afortunadas según los rendimientos en el ciclo económico. Debe pensarse en agregar una compañía de seguros estatal, que sea una opción para administrar las rentas vitalicias y mantener una capacidad de vigilancia pública desde el sistema para evitar todo riesgo de colapso de los seguros y establecer también regulaciones muy estrictas para los seguros privados que hoy las operan, especialmente en materia de tablas de longevidad y de solvencia.
Otra opción digna de considerar es no pasar por compañías de seguros -este es un esquema que prácticamente no existe en ningún país del mundo para el pago de pensiones contributivas-, sino fijar y pagar el monto de la pensión de acuerdo a la recaudación global promedio de cotizaciones distribuida, según los derechos adquiridos por las cotizaciones a lo largo de la vida laboral y las compensaciones por hijo, por continuidad y por ingreso a las que se tenga derecho, como en el sistema sueco y el de otros países europeos.
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