En un escenario muy complejo para el mundo del Apruebo, luego de los resultados del pasado domingo, es necesario explorar las causas de la derrota y extraer aprendizajes de ellas. Esta es multicausal y se inicia con los errores de algunos convencionales, continúan con una estrategia clara y definida del gran empresariado y la derecha, y terminan con el gobierno de Boric y el comportamiento de algunos parlamentarios oficialistas, en especial los senadores del PS, que hicieron todo lo posible por poner más dificultades en el camino a una opción que nunca fue la suya.
Edison Ortiz
Disparen contra la Convención
Hoy es fácil seguir dándole a un árbol caído y responsabilizarla por el fracaso del domingo pasado. Si bien es cierto, hubo errores de entrada, como no dimensionar que eran un poder que amenazaba al establishment, de derecha a izquierda, y también al mundo empresarial y que, eso exigía una conducta más cuidadosa. Otro error fue no haber cantado la canción nacional el día de la inauguración, ‘gustitos’ (“estridencias” las llamó alguien), de gente sin visión global del proceso, dado el alto quorum que exigían los acuerdos (2/3), la percepción que se fue construyendo intencionadamente sobre “las excentricidades” del órgano constituyente. El caso Rojas Vade (a propósito, su verdad la publicitó LT el 4 de septiembre de 2021, a dos meses de asumida una Convención que comenzaba a ser asediada comunicacionalmente, y justo un año antes que se plebiscitara la propuesta de nueva Constitución). Además, hubo otros episodios, varios de ellos noticias falsas, que fueron mellando la confianza en el órgano que debía redactar una nueva carta fundamental.
Hasta el senador socialista, Fidel Espinoza – el mismo al que solo le faltó llamar a votar Rechazo, junto a sus otros colegas del senado –, habló de “la farra” y de que, incluso, los exconvencionales debían devolver el dinero, emulando el mismo argumento que levantó la derecha y que evidencia, además, un clasismo que creíamos haber superado.
La Convención, con todas sus dificultades, hizo un trabajo de joyería y sacó adelante, en el tiempo estipulado, un proyecto contundente que, más allá del resultado del domingo, será difícil obviar en el futuro cuando vuelva a discutirse. Seguramente, será morigerado – la plurinacionalidad, por ejemplo, y donde los mapuche deberán hacerse cargo por sí mismos de su demanda ancestral – y también. Pero es improbable que todo lo que se avanzó se tire por la borda, porque hay cosas que llegaron para quedarse: como el estado social de derechos, la protección del medio ambiente, la paridad de género, la seguridad social, la profesionalización del estado, entre muchos otros. El relato que ha querido construirse sobre “la farra” no es real y, además, esconde tras de sí a los verdaderos responsables de una derrota inobjetable. ¿Quiénes son ellos?
El Gobierno
El mandato de Gabriel Boric recogió la demanda por implementar las transformaciones que la sociedad chilena viene exigiendo desde hace rato y así, en gran parte, lo recogió su programa de gobierno. Luego de su triunfo, y cuando, durante el verano, se empezaron a hacer las primeras designaciones, se optó por designar a un equipo económico para dar tranquilidad al gran empresariado; no para arriesgarse a correr el cerco de lo permitido por el neoliberalismo, en sintonía con las aspiraciones ciudadanas. Por el contrario, se eligió a un subsecretario que debería implementar una de las reformas más importantes, la previsional, quien había sido el autor del Crédito Con Aval del Estado (CAE), Cristián Larraín, proyecto de reforma que, hasta hoy, duerme el sueño de los justos. Se entregó en bandeja la presidencia del Banco Central (BC) a Piñera, con la designación de Rossana Costa que, en marzo, inmediatamente, sube las tasas de interés y cuyos efectos más perniciosos sufren l@s chilen@s este mes.
Luego, se elige un equipo político para La Moneda que, a todas luces, no calza con el desafío que se deben enfrentar – reformas, conflicto mapuche, seguridad ciudadana, delincuencia, inmigración desatada, etc. – y la ministra Siches, casi en paralelo a la asunción del gobierno, queda inmediatamente cuestionada. La soberbia de Jackson hace que, a los pocos meses de iniciada la administración Boric, ya nadie lo salude cuando visita el parlamento y se gana, con o sin razón, el cuestionamiento permanente de la bancada de senadores socialistas que, con el nuevo proyecto de Constitución que instala la Cámara de Regiones, ven peligrar sus prebendas y privilegios.
El retiro del 10% que cuando se fue oposición era justo y razonable. Ahora, ya no lo es. Lo mismo sucede con los bonos y el IFE. Aquello que con Piñera era necesario dar, ahora tampoco lo es, mientras campea el desempleo, sube la inflación y el alza de las tasas de interés ralentizan aún más la economía.
Cuando, en mayo, ya se hace evidente la necesidad de un cambio de gabinete para enmendar el rumbo, se señala que este se hará después del plebiscito, mientras se comienzan a entregar señales equívocas para reformar la Constitución, independiente de cuál sea el resultado del 4 de septiembre.
Las chambonadas no paran y llegan incluso hasta la semana misma en que se someterá a votación la propuesta de Constitución, así como no se anuncian los grandes proyectos de reforma que la ciudadanía ha venido exigiendo.
Cuando se dan a conocer los resultados finales del plebiscito, estos se parecen mucho a las encuestas sobre la gestión del gobierno. Una gran parte de la población, con su voto, ha evaluado más bien el desempeño del ejecutivo.
Los senadores oficialistas (en especial los socialistas)
La amenaza de la instalación de la Cámara de las Regiones es un tema que hace ruido en el Congreso, en especial en el Senado. Desde la UDI hasta el PS se ponen de acuerdo en elegir a Álvaro Elizalde como presidente, con el compromiso de defender “la institución”. Y Elizalde lo hace con la presión que se ejerce sobre los convencionales socialistas que amainan el espíritu reformista.
Una vez que asume el nuevo gobierno, los senadores del PS, en especial, Fidel Espinoza y Juan Luis Castro, pasan a la oposición, y no hay semana en que no aparezcan criticando al ejecutivo y, en especial, al ministro de la Segpres, Giorgio Jackson. En la campaña del Apruebo, los senadores del PS brillaron por su ausencia, a excepción de Isabel Allende y al día siguiente del plebiscito, intentarán pasar por caja para cobrar su parte.
Los de siempre: el gran empresariado y la derecha política
Como lo hemos escrito un montón de veces, la derecha quedó choqueada con el resultado del plebiscito de 2021. 80-20%, los redujo como sector a una mínima representación, solo comparable a la debacle electoral de 1965.
Siempre supieron que revertir ese resultado, desde dentro de la Convención, sería imposible. E hicieron lo que tenían que hacer. Teresa Marinovic lo anunció a T13 el mismo día de instalación de la convención:»somos un grupo importante y si no los somos en términos de votos, vamos a buscar otra manera”. Se dio inicio con ello, al desprestigio de la Convención, avalado a veces por algunos actores del órgano constituyente que, con su actuar, refrendaban el relato que se empezó a construir sobre “la improductividad”, “excentricidad”, “la farra”, de la entidad. El 4 de septiembre de 2021, la constituyente queda herida en su línea de flotación cuando LT, a dos meses de iniciado el trabajo constituyente, publicita la mentira sobre la enfermedad real de uno de sus vicepresidentes, Rodrigo Rojas Vade.
De ahí en adelante, la situación de la Convención se puso cuesta arriba y el 17 de octubre, Nicolás Ibáñez, conocido empresario de posturas extremas anuncia en Emol que:“mi visión es que tenemos que hacer todo lo posible para que salga Boric (…) que el problema mapuche, que el problema de la violencia en la plaza Italia sea de Boric(…) Y vamos a poder organizar el Rechazo a la Constitución”.
Para operativizar aquello, se contó con recursos sustanciosos y una amplia billetera empresarial, que puso a sus medios – que no son pocos – y a actores a destruir lo que quedaba de la Convención. Generó ideas fuertes de sentido común – la propiedad, mis ahorros, mi casa, símbolos patrios, la ruptura de la unidad nacional de ganar el Apruebo, la inmigración venezolana, etc. – que hicieron sentido a un mundo popular que, como dijo Alberto Mayol, “votaba ‘Apruebo’ cuando gobernaba Piñera y pasó a votar ‘Rechazo’ cuando entró Boric. [En] la ciudadanía habita el malestar y no ha visto aparecer una respuesta adecuada. La ciudadanía, hace rato, no defiende nada, solo castiga”.
Amenazaron en el mundo rural con las penas del infierno a sus trabajadores si ganaba el Apruebo y no faltó la sostenedora, en nuestra región, que amenazó a l@s trabajadores de su colegio con cerrarlo de ganar el Apruebo, porque: “no le vendería su colegio al estado”.
Una ecuación que sumó recursos financieros abundantes, sentido común (aunque fueran noticias falsas), una estrategia clara y ordenada que, incluso significó que durante la campaña, se “submarinearan” tanto empresarios como actores políticos de derecha, y que rindió muy buenos frutos de la cual, por supuesto, debemos aprender.
Todo lo anterior se mezcló en un coctel perfecto que produjo el resultado del domingo por la noche, a lo que se sumó el voto obligatorio, impulsado por los sectores progresistas, que todavía no logran comprender el cambio de paradigma político y de realidad que hace que, así como va la cosa, en esos sectores, y de no resolverse la crisis, Parisi o Kast se pudieran imponer con mucha facilidad en una próxima elección presidencial.
Epílogo
¿y dónde está el champagne? Bajo este escenario, y tal cual me lo confesaron exconstituyentes, colaboradoras que trabajaron con ellos, en un contexto de soledad completo, con voluntari@s que salieron por si sol@s, o con amig@s a hacer campaña, el casi 40% del Apruebo parezca casi una proeza. En la derrota e incertidumbre, que dejaron los resultados del plebiscito del domingo, es un piso para empezar a reordenar el mapa político del mundo de la centroizquierda. Es lo que hay.
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