Volvió el circo, y los payasos se sienten empoderados. El escenario político de la mayor potencia económica del mundo se ve incierto, y viene un periodo de turbulencia. Solo el futuro dirá como termina.
David Allen Harvey
Hace cien años aproximadamente, el escritor y periodista norteamericano H. L. Mencken definió la política como “el arte de dirigir el circo desde la jaula de los monos.” Desde entonces, la política, tanto en los EE.UU. como en el resto del mundo, ha tenido sus altibajos, pero durante la administración del expresidente Donald Trump, la farandulización de la política parecía comprobar los dichos cínicos de Mencken. Volvió la razón con la derrota de Trump en las elecciones del 2020, pero su sucesor, Joe Biden, no ha tenido la tarea fácil: tuvo que liderar con el COVID, la guerra de Ucrania, y con la inflación que azota a los EE.UU. como al resto del mundo. Entre el cansancio con las mascarillas y las vacunas de refuerzo y el malestar con los precios cada vez más altos, los sentimientos del electorado han sido más bien negativos, y muchos analistas auguraron una gran victoria republicana en las elecciones del Congreso en noviembre del año pasado. Al final no fue tanto, en gran parte porque el rechazo del público a Trump es aún más fuerte que su frustración con el mandatario actual, que muchas veces parece un abuelito genial pero algo despistado. Los demócratas mantuvieron control del Senado y les fue bien en las elecciones regionales en muchos estados del país, sobre todo en el “midwest” (norte central), zona tradicionalmente dividida donde Trump arrasó en 2016 antes de perder en 2020. Pero los republicanos ganaron el control de la Cámara de Representantes por un margen mínimo (222 escaños contra 213 del partido del presidente), lo cual abre un nuevo periodo de división y disfunción política.
La primera señal del nuevo circo político fue la elección del presidente de la Cámara. Como los Estados Unidos solo tiene dos partidos representados en el Congreso, esta elección normalmente es una coronación pro forma del líder del partido mayoritario. Sin embargo, faltó quince votaciones antes que el diputado californiano Kevin McCarthy, líder de la facción dominante de los republicanos en la Cámara, fuese elegido. Esta situación se produjo porque una docena de diputados de su propio partido se negaron de votar por él hasta que McCarthy aceptó una serie de demandas, entre las cuales el derecho de cualquier miembro de la asamblea de proponer su destitución en cualquier momento. Aunque McCarthy al final obtuvo el cargo soñado, salió muy debilitado del proceso y difícilmente podrá unir a sus colegas para aprobar proyectos de leyes.
McCarthy es un político tradicional, que paso a paso ha escalado las escalas del poder hasta llegar a su cargo actual, y sabe como funcionan las instituciones democráticas. Pero muchos de sus partidarios en la Cámara forman parte de la farandulización de la política al estilo Trump, rechazan o desconocen los resultados de las elecciones cuando pierden, y buscan más lucirse en la televisión o en las redes sociales en vez de gobernar. Partidarios del exmandatario que creen que las acusaciones constitucionales en su contra fueron persecuciones indebidas, quieren al tiro abrir una serie de acusaciones contra el presidente actual, y poco importa que no hay causas creíbles en su contra. Como el mismo mandatario no presenta ningún escándalo, varios diputados republicanos proponen investigar a su hijo, Hunter Biden, un pastelito tipo Sebastián Dávalos, quien ha traído bastante vergüenza a su familia, pero no ocupa ningún cargo oficial y, por lo que se sabe, no ha infringido a ninguna ley.
El próximo gran desafío que enfrenta el país se trata del presupuesto y de la deuda nacional. Desde el principio del siglo pasado, el Congreso ha definido un tope máximo del endeudamiento fiscal, que periódicamente es necesario elevar para poder pagar las obligaciones del país (pensiones y salarios públicos, gastos militares, bonos y préstamos internacionales, etc.). Normalmente esta votación no tiene mayor importancia, pero en 2011, el Congreso, también con mayoría republicana, amenazó con negarse a elevar el tope de la deuda, acción de máxima irresponsabilidad (no se trata de incurrir nuevas deudas, sino de pagar las obligaciones ya asumidas) que podría llevar el país al incumplimiento de sus obligaciones y (dado la centralidad de los Estados Unidos a la economía global) provocar una crisis financiera mundial. Se evitó una crisis en 2011 porque el entonces presidente Barack Obama aceptó algunos recortes en el presupuesto y los lideres republicanos del Congreso, con una fuerte presión de parte de Wall Street, reconocieron a tiempo el peligro de una crisis financiera autoinfligida. Sin embargo, es posible que doce años después, se puede repetir la misma historia con un final más incierto, puesto que el presidente Biden se niega a negociar sobre el tema de la deuda y porque los diputados republicanos, más populistas y menos disciplinados que los anteriores, tampoco quieren ceder. Aunque no creo que lleguen al punto de repudiar la deuda (Estados Unidos, con todas sus faltas, no es Argentina), esta crisis totalmente innecesaria que todos vemos venir podría dañar seriamente la economía del país, con repercusiones impredecibles pero dañinas para la economía global.
Volvió el circo, y los payasos se sienten empoderados. El escenario político de la mayor potencia económica del mundo se ve incierto, y viene un periodo de turbulencia. Solo el futuro dirá como termina.
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