Por Sofia Aitken de Ambrogio, Dariel Jorquera Escanilla, Jonathan Velásquez Herrera, analistas y estudiantes del Magister en Gerencia y Políticas Públicas de la USACH.
Una de las principales preocupaciones de la ciudadanía actualmente es el aumento sostenido de la delincuencia y la violencia en el país.
Según la encuesta CEP 2023, la principal preocupación ciudadana fue la delincuencia, llevándose el primer lugar con un 60%, y superando por 18 puntos porcentuales la medición de agosto de 2021 (CEP, 2023). Indudablemente, los indultos presidenciales de diciembre pasado, el impacto mediático de los medios de comunicación y la gran cantidad de extranjeros inmigrantes, posicionados en el discurso cotidiano como el origen de la delincuencia en Chile, han sido el argumento principal para este fenómeno, obviando así datos e investigaciones que brindan respuestas diferentes. De esta forma, se ha vuelto bastante común observar cómo la cobertura de delitos en los últimos años en los noticieros ha ido aumentando sostenidamente, al punto que casi todas las noticias son sobre los delitos del día.
Lo anterior ha tenido como resultado que la seguridad se instale en la agenda de gobierno, con el fin de abordar la sensación de inseguridad de la población y combatir la delincuencia mediante leyes y proyectos como la ley Nain-Retamal o el Plan “Calles sin Violencia”.
No es de extrañar, entonces, que este fenómeno haya llegado a ser eje central de la política. Ejemplo de ello son la campaña electoral que hicieron pactos como “Chile Seguro” (RN, UDI, Evópoli) o el partido Republicano, cuyas promesas de campaña para las elecciones del Consejo Constitucional del pasado 7 de mayo se basaron casi exclusivamente en el argumento de redactar una constitución que le dé seguridad al país. Lo anterior, claramente tuvo efecto en los votantes, quienes se inclinaron por las ideologías de republicanos y “Chile seguro”, quienes supieron leer casi de manual la “teoría del votante mediano”, diagnosticando perfectamente cuáles eran las preferencias determinantes para dichas elecciones, sabiendo además que el panorama en el oficialismo facilitaba su discurso disruptor de la política actual.
Todo esto nos lleva a una situación fácilmente deducible: la gente en Chile se siente insegura.
Sin embargo, es fundamental someter esta percepción altamente preocupante a una prueba de coherencia con las estadísticas oficiales sobre delitos, para poder medir qué tanto coincide la percepción con los datos empíricos. En el ámbito presupuestario, por ejemplo, el análisis es relevante si las medidas de seguridad se contrastan con dichos datos: con razón, la alerta se encendería si se aumenta el presupuesto en este ámbito en respuesta a la sola percepción ciudadana. Es posible que, en ese caso, no se estén entregando las respuestas adecuadas. La historia comparada nos ilustra también sobre la necesidad de conocer bien el fenómeno de la seguridad antes de implementar medidas, ya que si no se limita la respuesta al contexto, puede existir una guerra entre el Estado y grupos civiles que terminan en gran parte de los casos en violaciones sistemáticas de derechos humanos, como el caso mexicano y colombiano en su guerra contra el narcotráfico y las FARC, respectivamente.
¿Realmente estamos en una crisis de seguridad?
Es muy impopular sostener la hipótesis que Chile está lejos de sufrir una crisis de seguridad, como se sostiene en diversos medios de comunicación, e incluso en discursos de autoridades políticas. Sin embargo, fijándonos en los datos podemos afirmar que sobre el tema poco se sabe y no hay consenso sobre sus distintas aristas.
Toda crisis supone un período temporal en el cual una situación observada tiene valores deteriorados en comparación a otro período temporal. Sin embargo, en el caso de estudio, podemos observar, en base a estadísticas entregadas por el Centro de Estudios y Análisis del Delito, que los Delitos de Mayor Connotación Social (DMCS, que representan un indicador agregado sobre la delincuencia) tuvieron la tendencia a disminuir ininterrumpidamente desde 2014 hasta 2021 en Chile. Sólo en el año siguiente se vio un aumento de estas cifras, probablemente asociado a la vuelta a la rutina normal, incremento que pese a todo muestra cifras mejores que la tendencia pre pandemia.

De manera más desagregada, pueden estudiarse los delitos violentos (excluyendo homicidios, por ahora) o bien delitos contra la propiedad, con tal de complementar el análisis en torno a los DMCS. Sin embargo, el panorama nos parece indicar una situación similar en la recta temporal, donde los primeros no superan en ningún momento del rango temporal los 750 delitos violentos por cada 100.000 habitantes en Chile, llegando a un punto mínimo cercano a 450 en 2021, en plena pandemia y encierro. En 2022 también aumenta, pero sin superar ni de cerca la tendencia en el período mencionado (2005-2022). Los delitos contra la propiedad reflejan prácticamente lo mismo; se mantienen constantes a través de los años, bajando al inicio de la pandemia y aumentando cuando el COVID iba en retirada, aunque sin superar la tendencia.

Sin embargo, los homicidios sí deberían dejarnos una bandera roja respecto al comportamiento del delito en Chile. Esto porque la tasa ha empeorado desde 2,7 homicidios por 100 mil habitantes en 2016 a un 4,7 en 2022, casi un 70%.
Por lo tanto, las cifras oficiales nos muestran que la realidad chilena no ha variado considerablemente en su tasa de delitos, a excepción de los homicidios. Surgiendo así la pregunta ¿tiene coherencia la percepción ciudadana con las estadísticas oficiales?

Con las cifras mostradas, se evidencia que no existe una relación proporcional entre ambas variables, puesto que a pesar de existir una disminución de los delitos hay un aumento de la idea colectiva de inseguridad. Un ejemplo clarificador es el período de 2020 y 2021, cuando Carabineros recibió un número significativamente menor de denuncias de DMCS (por la pandemia y cuarentenas respectivas) y sin embargo en estos mismos años la percepción de inseguridad aumentó pasando de un 81,8% en 2019 a un 86,9% en 2021, variando así un 5,1% en solo dos años.
¿Influyen los medios de comunicación sobre nuestras percepciones?
Para clarificar este fenómeno, resulta sumamente necesario que se preste atención a la relevancia de los medios de comunicación en el asunto, y preguntarnos qué grado de influencia pueden llegar a tener sobre la percepción ciudadana del aumento de la delincuencia e inseguridad en las calles. En este sentido, la Encuesta Nacional Urbana de Seguridad Ciudadana (ENUSC) en 2019, indicó que la principal fuente de información ciudadana respecto a la seguridad eran “las noticias en televisión”, categoría que se llevó el primer lugar con un abrumador 41,1%, seguido por categorías con porcentajes significativamente menores como “informaciones de otras personas” (16.4%), “experiencia de familiares” (14.7%), “experiencia personal” (13.3%) y “programas de televisión” (5.3%), (ENUSC, 2019).
Es importante destacar que la suma de las categorías “las noticias en televisión” y “programa de televisión” suman el 46,4% de las respuestas, por lo que podemos notar el alto grado de influencia que puede llegar a ejercer la televisión sobre la sensación de inseguridad. Lo anterior, sin mencionar la importancia que pueden llegar a tener las redes sociales como “Instagram”, “Twitter” o “Facebook” las que, además de ser un lugar en el que se comparten opiniones, que inciden en la réplica de temas tendenciales, también es un lugar donde se difunden fake news, que aumentan esa sensación.
Por otra parte, los medios de comunicación desarrollan sus noticieros con escenas a veces sacadas de las películas de Hollywood o simplemente de contexto. En este sentido, Naredo (2002) haciendo alusión a Schneider (1995) indica que “los medios de comunicación de masas crean una criminalidad difusa, irreal e incomprensible para la mayor parte de los mortales (Schneider, 1995) (…) Pero, además, crean la sensación de que esa criminalidad violenta, cercana a la ficción, cinematográfica, está experimentando un importante aumento, lo que lleva a los ciudadanos a sentir la necesidad de protegerse”. Frente a lo anterior, podemos en cierta medida afirmar que la percepción tanto de la seguridad como de otras temáticas se ve altamente influida por la cinematografía y el tipo de relato mostrado en televisión, por lo que, el realismo y la cercanía de la historia contada, crea la idea en el espectador de que en cualquier momento podría también ser víctima de un delito.
Con todo esto hay algunas apreciaciones claras. En primer lugar, es posible afirmar que Chile no se encuentra en una “crisis de seguridad”, tanto porque no se encuentra en peor estado que años anteriores, como porque la seguridad aún no nos obliga a abandonar la rutina que nosotros esperamos realizar, salvo por la percepción de algunas personas que los incita a pensar en la alta probabilidad de que pueda ser víctima de un delito, la cual, como se ha demostrado, no es coincidente con las cifras oficiales. Y aunque es posible afirmar que los delitos han aumentado en el último año, hay que tomar en cuenta que el COVID fue un freno a la delincuencia, por lo cual en 2020 y 2021 los delitos disminuyeron significativamente y comenzaron a recuperar sus cifras habituales pre-pandemia en 2022. Incluso, si observamos las denuncias de DMCS realizadas en 2022 podemos notar que en cuanto a delincuencia estamos más abajo de lo que hubo en 2019, antes del estallido y de la pandemia.
Sí es posible afirmar que existe una sensación de inseguridad en la población que es cada vez más alta, y es ahí donde entran en juego otros actores, específicamente los medios de comunicación y noticieros.
En efecto, la manera en la que se relatan las noticias y la cantidad de noticias de delitos que muestran los noticieros generan una percepción alterada de la realidad, provocando miedo e inseguridad frente a una situación que presenta incluso cifras más bajas que en años anteriores. En este sentido, cabe dejar claro que no es lo mismo abordar la seguridad, sabiendo que en Chile han aumentado los homicidios por sobre otro delito, ya que sus causas y efectos -y por lo tanto las políticas- no son los mismos. Dicho esto, quizá sea mayormente efectiva una buena política comunicacional de transparencia de la realidad, y abordar el fenómeno como se nos presenta con la evidencia, lo cual estaría más cercano a mostrarnos un cambio en el comportamiento del delito, por sobre el aumento sustantivo de los mismos.
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Claro, si para ustedes tener casi el doble de homicidios no es una crisis de seguridad, entonces no sé qué es.
Estimado Rodrigo,
En parte, eso es un tema que queda inconcluso con el artículo, así que agradezco tu acotación. Primero, me gustaría clarificar que, por supuesto, el homicidio es lo más dramático y terrible dentro del crimen, pero no es el único indicador a mirar. Segundo, los niveles actuales son ampliamente menores a otros países de la región, y esto no ha implicado un sensación de temor tan alta como aquí. Por eso, tentativamente se levanta a los medios de comunicación como una variable altamente influyente. Tercero, y quiero ser muy cuidadoso en este punto: su comportamiento actual permite sostener que esta fuertemente asociado al crimen organizado, que está luchando por consolidarse en territorio nacional y que, por tanto, los homicidios producto de este fenómeno tienen personas y objetivos identificados, respondiendo al ajuste de cuentas, luchas por territorio, demostración de poder de fuego, etc. De ahí que, por ejemplo, en el informe sobre homicidios de la Fiscalía para el año 2023, se indique que casi un 55% de las víctimas contaba con antecedentes penales (lo que es una correlación, no una explicación). Por supuesto que sus efectos también la pueden vivir otras personas, como los casos de niños y niñas asesinados por balaceras.
Con todo esto quiero reafirmar dos situaciones: si se compara el nivel de temor con los niveles actuales de delincuencia, incluso en la tasa de homicidios, no tiene una clara explicación sin considerar a los medios de comunicación como influyente en ella. La otra situación es que esto responde más bien a un cambio en el comportamiento del delito, más que al aumento cuantitativo, lo que supone una mayor complejidad en ello, siendo un tema nuevo tanto para la ciudadanía como para las instituciones. Todo esto implica que así como el crimen del homicidio se ha complejizado, debería complejizarse la manera de abordarlo y no acudir a políticas simplistas ni tradicionales que han fracasado en Chile y en otros lugares del mundo.
Quisiera agregar, entonces, que si sólo consideramos al homicidio desde una visión cuantitativa, entonces efectivamente habría un crisis, pero sólo para esta dimensión, y hay que distinguir que la manera de abordar el homicidio es distinta a otro tipo de delitos. Ahora, como apreciación puramente personal, creo que la probabilidad de ser víctima de un homicidio en Chile, a pesar de haber aumentado, es baja, por lo que no debería ser razón para cambiar las rutinas que deseamos realizar, a menos que se visiten sectores extremadamente complicados (aunque en su mayoría han sido considerados como tal a lo largo de los años).
Por último, quisiera agregar que evidentemente estamos en un proceso de cambio de orden social, ya que las costumbres y lo que podemos evidenciar en espacios públicos no es lo mismo que décadas atrás, pero esto no implica necesariamente delitos, como el comercio ambulante y el desorden que genera en espacios comunes.
Excelente aporte,
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Interesante lo expuesto, pero como se explica el aumento de los homicidios si hay disminución en los otros delitos, y lo otro, lo expuesto por los medios es mentira, es parte parte de su agenda o tergivesan la realidad?
Excelente artículo, totalmente de acuerdo!
Gracias por la claridad
Concuerdo con lo expuesto, vivimos en psicosis colectivas, motivadas por los medios. Llevando una vida a saltos y temores. Pues se nos comunica lo conveniente y atractivo. Y no lo cien por ciento real.
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